My theory on the timing of Edwards' announcement...

Sulawesi

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Wed Jan-30-08 02:53 PM
Original message

My theory on the timing of Edwards' announcement...

The race may not be "over" on Feb. 6, but the direction is likely to be decided, with that...

If Edwards' internals show his voters taking more away from the candidate he prefers, and if he feels he cannot win, then now is the perfect time. If he waits, then the positive impact his supporters have on the candidate he prefers might be lessened, or irrelevant, after Tuesday.

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MrCoffee

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Wed Jan-30-08 02:57 PM
Response to Original message

1. I think it was timed to coincide with a planned trip to New Orleans

He started his campaign there, and it's the perfect venue to backdrop and illuminate what his candidacy was all about.

If he was so concerned about Clinton or Obama, he'd have endorsed one today. He didn't endorse either, and it's fairly convoluted to assume that suspending his campaign is some backhanded indirect way of influencing support.

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Sulawesi

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Wed Jan-30-08 03:00 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. If he does not endorse, then I am wrong...

He moved events to make room for the NO appearance after he made his decision..

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MrCoffee

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Wed Jan-30-08 03:02 PM
Response to Reply #2

3. He needed to win one of the first primaries to overcome the "underdog" tag

Unfortunately, he didn't. It happens. There's only one nominee, and sometimes it's just not the best candidate who wins it.

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soleft

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Wed Jan-30-08 03:04 PM
Response to Reply #1

4. I thought the trip to New Orleans wasn't planned

I read that his staffers were told only yesterday that instead of planned campaign stops they were now going to New Orleans.

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MrCoffee

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Wed Jan-30-08 03:19 PM
Response to Reply #4

7. It was listed as a "Major Policy Address on Poverty" on his website

and still is.

My understanding was that the trip was planned. Of course, I could be wrong.

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frazzled

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Wed Jan-30-08 03:27 PM
Response to Reply #7

9. NO Poverty Talk annouced as change of plans last night, from scheduled visits to ND, SD

So, no, it was not officially on his schedule until last night, and he canceled scheduled campaign appearances that had already been planned on the books.

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redqueen

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Wed Jan-30-08 03:05 PM
Response to Original message

5. No... if that were true he'd have named said preferred candidate.

No, that's not why.

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Occam Bandage

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Wed Jan-30-08 03:10 PM
Response to Reply #5

6. I doubt it. It would be frankly bizarre to do that; it would lead to more confusion

Edited on Wed Jan-30-08 03:11 PM by Occam Bandage

than anything else for him to go from his own candidate to a supporter of another without any warning at all. Rudy did that for McCain, and nobody really gave a shit, despite Rudy still having sizable support in Super Tuesday states.

Edwards' campaign has deliberately left the door open; he's trying to build buzz and invite suitors. Already Trippi has been talking about how the other candidates are "beating down his door." Edwards is trying to make his endorsement look like the much-desired "clincher."

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OHdem10

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Wed Jan-30-08 03:23 PM
Response to Original message

8. It has been made absolutely clear this week that even if the

world comes to an end Obama has to stay in the race. Last night
a Professor Swain, (McSwain) imdicated on L. Dobbs that if Obama
is not the nominee the Blacks will stay home and not vote.

Hilary has the Machine and I do not see her collapsing.

At a certain point I believe John determined , facing these conditioning
there was no way for him to win. Getting a small number of delegates
would not be enough to exercise real power. There would no opening
for him to have a chance for the Presidency.

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grantcart

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Wed Jan-30-08 03:30 PM
Response to Original message

10. salamat datang you are correct I think

I expect an endorsement on Saturday with Sunday morning talk show exposure

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Altec

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Wed Jan-30-08 03:32 PM
Response to Original message

11. Will Endorse Obama

He decided to drop out now because he was in New Orleans. He'll endorse Obama right before Super Tuesday.

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Lucinda

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Wed Jan-30-08 03:38 PM
Response to Original message

12. That makes a lot of sense. He's a very smart man. I'm sure the choice was

a thoughtful one.

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