My biggest fear with Hillary Clinton.

This election is going to be close, don't let anyone tell you otherwise. Whether it's Obama or Clinton, I don't foresee a blowout by either candidate. Likewise, I don't think either will get trashed, but I do fear Clinton won't win in a close contest. Do I have anything to base this on? No, and I don't really think those polls showing Obama leading McCain, with Hillary trailing, are really important at this stage. So that isn't why I'm fearful that Hillary Clinton will lose in the general election. I'm fearful because I think her history, justified or not, has turned a lot of people against her. And while McCain is not a great alternative to Clinton within these camps, when the prospects of a Clinton presidency starts creeping up on these Christian evangelicals, it will become an issue.

What I see is this race coming down once again to a few swing states. Ohio, Florida, Iowa and a few out west could be the difference between winning and losing. I do expect Hillary to carry every state Kerry carried in 2004, but even that won't be enough to win the election. So it will have to come down to whether she has the ability to win within conservative communities that went Bush in 2004. I don't think she does, even though she will be aided by the fact John McCain is often despised within these same communities. My problem, and maybe it's irrational, is that I could see conservatives holding their nose to vote for McCain to stop the possibility of Clinton winning the presidency. With Obama, I see it a bit differently.

I don't think those conservatives will support Obama, but I think many can live with Obama and that's why I think they will sit out the 2008 election instead of supporting McCain. Let Obama be president and try again in 4 more years, but the prospects of an Obama presidency is easier to swallow for them than a Clinton presidency. If the hardcore conservatives sit out this election cycle, like some liberals did in 2000, we will win. However, Clinton is divisive, especially when it comes to the right and I can see them coming out in droves to support McCain, swamping Clinton and giving us at least 4 more years of Republican control. Obviously if she wins the nomination I will support her and hope that I'm wrong, but this is just how I see it. Flame me if you must, but this has been a major fear of mine from day one and it hasn't eased up at all throughout this election cycle.

They voted identically in the Senate 94% of the time... I don't see a big difference between them at all.

I think Obama is being used to bruise HC now and in the GE the right will come out in droves to vote against him. They say they could live with him as President but trust me, the Civil War is not over for a lot of American voters. If HC gets the nomination, at least she will energize the women's vote which might be able to overcome the bigot vote.

that a number of republicans are so dissatisfied with their choices that they really could just sit out the next election. The talk radio loaths McCain.
No doubt though that they would walk through broken glass to vote against Hillary Clinton.

Even if women came out in droves to vote for her and she did win, we'd still lose a number of close House and Senate seats.

She a good Senator and she'd make a fine President but with the amount of hatred the ring-wing has for her, I can't ignore the real chance she'd unite the GOP and we'd lose.

he/she takes the Oath of Office until January 21, 2013.

At least?

Well, we can dream

that he would be the Republican Nominee.

I stand by my other Prediction--Hilary is the Democrat who can
beat McCain if anyone can.


Former Edwards supporter who now supports Hilary

The new Democratic Governor of Ohio endorsed Hillary Clinton and his main reason for doing so was his belief that Hillary Clinton is the most electable Democratic candidate. The people of Florida just voted with about 1.5 million Democratic ballots cast. The Miami newspaper headline called the outcome a Rout for Hillary. She won virtually across the board no matter how you slice the demographics. If you want Florida Democrats active and excited, out there working to elect a Democrat President in 2008, then the candidate you want on the ballot in Florida is Hillary Clinton.

Then let's look at the major elements of the coalition that Democrats typically depend on to win elections. When we can't turn out the vote from these groups we lose. When we do we win. The Democratic Party depends on women, we depend on Unions, we depend on working class and mid to lower middle class voters, we depend on latinos, and we depend on Blacks. Run down that check list.

Hillary is showing not only an ability to win the vote of the women who cast ballots, but an amazing ability to increase female participation in election contests in the first place. She also got the lion's share of Union support this year, with Edwards next behind her. Obama trailed behind both of them in Union endorsements. In Nevada, in Florida, and in polling in California, Hillary Clinton repeatedly is showing the depth of support that she has from Hispanic voters, which is a critical growing constituency for the Democratic Party. And their votes are concentrated inside several critical swing states that John Kerry fell just short of winning. In addition to Florida that includes Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado also to an extent.

Finally we are left with African Americans. They still in overwhelming numbers like the Clintons, both Hillary and Bill. Obama does better with this important constituency than Hillary, granted which to me is even less surprising than Hillary doing better with women, but that doesn't make her unpopular with Blacks. Why do you think Hillary still got around 20% of the Black vote in South Carolina and Florida while John Edwards, a man who dedicated his campaign to the the dis-empowered in America, got only 1% to 2% of the vote in that constituency? Blacks weren't rejecting the message Edwards stands for and they will be there for Hillary also if she is our nominee.

I am not even beginning to address the gay and lesbian vote here, which some would estimate to be 10% of the electorate. Both Clinton and Obama have support inside that community, but Obama has angered many there also. Clinton can expect more active help from gay and lesbian activists in turning out the vote for her in November than could Obama.

Struggling with her choice between Obama and Clinton. She seemed to lean Clinton on a head to head comparison basis, but worried that there might be too much hatred of Clinton out there. This is what I wrote to her:

I think the ferociousness of attacks on Hillary will backfire
Edited on Tue Jan-29-08 10:28 AM by Tom Rinaldo
Here is an interesting story out of Florida:

Sun-Sentinal.com
Women give Clinton commanding lead in Florida
By Anthony Man | Political Writer
January 23, 2008

"...The South Florida Sun-Sentinel/Florida Times-Union Florida poll conducted last week found that among Democrats, Clinton had support of 56 percent of likely female voters — 36 percentage points ahead of Obama, who had support of 20 percent of women. Clinton had the support of 43 percent of men, just 5 percentage points ahead of Obama's 38 percent."
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-flbwomen0123pnjan23,0,6141190.story

The gender gap breaks much stronger in favor of Clinton among women than it breaks against her among men, and not just in Florida. And of course women are the majority group in America. Right now, in the Democratic Primary, sympathy for the unfair "attacks" Hillary comes under as a women is largely counterbalanced by sympathy for Obama because of "attacks" the media blames on the Clinton camp against Obama over race.

The story of how race is playing into this contest, and discussion about it, is overshadowing any focus on sexism for now. But the Republicans are going to run a white guy for President. If Hillary is our nominee there will be virtually if no talk about race baiting, but the issue of sexism will be on bold display across America. That is because the Republican Hate Machine can't help itself. They don't know how to throttle back their derision of Hillary, it goes against their DNA seemingly on the cellular level. They will repeat all the mistakes that won Hillary real sympathy in New Hampshire, and stir outrage against those who act belittling toward a woman who dares to believe she can be a leader. Obvious low blows will be landed against Hillary, and she will still stand strong. The public, women in particular, will not stand silently for that. Hillary's haters will dig their own grave.

As the Democratic nominee for President Hillary will get the stage half for herself to define herself to the American People. That is about an 800% more fair division of media access between Hillary herself and Hillary's haters than she has ever gotten before on a National level in the 15 years since Republicans started attacking her.

The Republicans have given it their best shot to negatively define Hillary Clinton and her positives vs negatives now are not that much worse in polling than Barack Obama is recording. But the Republicans have barely begun to spin their toxic stories about Richard Daley's legacy of an iron fisted Chicago political machine and a supposed culture of corruption that ruled Chicago throughout Obama's dramatic rise in politics. Obama has gotten the rock star treatment, Hillary has gotten Ken Starr's treatment. Hillary Clinton is the one with real upside potential left when the voters reevaluate her one on one in direct comparison with a Republican opponent.

Hillary Clinton will win the debates, that is important, because if she doesn't come across as up for the job the public will not balk at the unfair derision she will receive despite being the most intelligent and competent candidate running. But Clinton clearly comes across as brilliant. She comes across as strong but still understanding of the real pain real Americans are feeling. She comes across as a hard worker at a time when the voters understand that it will take hard work to deal with the massive problems any President is about to inherit. Hillary Clinton will certainly be scorned by her enemies during the General Election campaign. But they would be much wiser to "Beware a woman scorned..."


And I also wrote her this:

What I want to say to you is simply to support the person who you feel will make the best President for America. We will take that person over the finish line together. I think you should go with the person who you would rather vote for out of them.