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New Gallup Poll: At the moment, Obama has the momentum among Democrats nationally

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009)

flpoljunkie

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:29 PM
Original message

New Gallup Poll: At the moment, Obama has the momentum among Democrats nationally

Gallup Daily: Tracking Election 2008

Based on daily polling from Jan. 27-29, 2008

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama has now cut the gap with Hillary Clinton to 6 percentage points among Democrats nationally in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking three-day average, and interviewing conducted Tuesday night shows the gap between the two candidates is within a few points. Obama's position has been strengthening on a day-by-day basis. As recently as Jan. 18-20, Clinton led Obama by 20 points. Today's Gallup Poll Daily tracking is based on interviews conducted Jan. 27-29, all after Obama's overwhelming victory in South Carolina on Saturday. Two out of the three nights interviewing were conducted after the high-visibility endorsement of Obama by Sen. Edward Kennedy and his niece Caroline Kennedy.

Clinton's lead in the three-day average is now 42% to Obama's 36%. John Edwards, who dropped out of the race Wednesday after Gallup conducted these interviews, ended his quest for the presidency with 12% support. Wednesday night's interviewing will reflect the distribution of the vote choice of former Edwards' supporters as well as the impact, if any, of Hillary Clinton's popular vote win in Florida on Tuesday.

These national numbers are a critically important indicator of the political environment when voters in more than 20 states go to the polls next Tuesday. At the moment, Obama has the momentum among Democrats nationally.

Link

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neutron

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:31 PM
Response to Original message

1. in CA and NY it's Clinton

Edited on Wed Jan-30-08 04:37 PM by neutron

and FLA didn't give a hoot who Caroline and Uncle Teddy endorsed.

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KittyWampus

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:32 PM
Response to Reply #1

6. Sorry, Obama leads Clinton in latest CA poll. Not by much, but he closed an enormous gap

and hadn't had time to campaign in person there.

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neutron

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:34 PM
Response to Reply #6

10. not according to your link

Edited on Wed Jan-30-08 04:36 PM by neutron

http://www.gallup.com/video/103990/NY-Clinton-McCain-Lead.aspx
and
http://www.gallup.com/poll/103984/California-Poll-Clinton-Leads-McCain-Romney-Close.aspx

do you have another link?

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papau

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:38 PM
Response to Reply #10

14. she is referring to one 200 response day out of the 600 person/3 day poll

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Deep13

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:38 PM
Response to Reply #10

17. That poll ended on the 26th.

As much as I would like to think she has it in the bag, I am not convinced the data supports that.

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loveangelc

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Wed Jan-30-08 09:20 PM
Response to Reply #17

23. I agree, thought I don't hope she has it in the bag...but I think a lot of people do.

I don't think it's just an automatic thing that Hillary will win CA by this large % or even win. If Obama comes close it will be seen a win imo.

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Nimrod2005

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:38 PM
Response to Reply #6

15. Nice

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papau

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:38 PM
Response to Reply #15

16. :LOL :-)

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still_one

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:34 PM
Response to Reply #1

9. I mailed my ballot yesterday for Obama in Northern California

Nobody can predict how California will go, including the polls

Too many young people and independents are not being included

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featherman

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Wed Jan-30-08 09:25 PM
Response to Reply #9

26. I mailed mine in from NorCal last week - Obama

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LordJFT

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Wed Jan-30-08 08:50 PM
Response to Reply #1

22. sorry in ny obama closed the gap to 12

Not bad considering it's her home state and all but one ny congressmen endorsed her

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KittyWampus

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:31 PM
Response to Original message

2. Yup, Obama closes the gap every time. His ability to do this impresses me.

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Deep13

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:32 PM
Response to Reply #2

7. I will concede he has been very effective on the campaign trail. nt

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grantcart

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:36 PM
Response to Reply #2

12. as shown below

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babylonsister

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:31 PM
Response to Original message

3. GOBAMA! nt

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BayouBengal07

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:31 PM
Response to Original message

4. Sweet!

:headbang: :applause:

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goodhue

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:32 PM
Response to Original message

5. very cool

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BeyondGeography

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:32 PM
Response to Original message

8. Oooooooooo-mentum

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Bucky

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:36 PM
Response to Original message

11. Given the calendar, he may be surging too late.

Edited on Wed Jan-30-08 04:36 PM by Bucky

Not to be too negative here, but given the short time before Tsunami Tuesday, I'm skeptical that a surge now will produce much more than a few surprise victories. It's all air game and name ID from here on out.

I wish he could carry it out, but time may be too precious by this hour.

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FrenchieCat

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:39 PM
Response to Reply #11

18. His surge will have to be steep and overtake the Tsunami.......but

if anyone can do it, it is the skinny guy with a funny name who by all calculation should not be standing where he is today.

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Bucky

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:46 PM
Response to Reply #18

19. Okay, you have a factual basis for optimism "Clinton's lead in the three-day average is now 42%-36%"

The polling data is based on a three-day average of daily polls. If he jumps 10 points in a couple of days, then there's still some residual weight in the average from days past when Clinton had a stronger presense in teh polling results.

The same kind of mathmatics masked Clinton's last minute surge in New Hampshire last month. Now it could be masking an Obama surge as people start trending his way. This could be a bigger demographic shift than what the compared numbers indicate.

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Unsane

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:38 PM
Response to Original message

13. Gobama!

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Bitwit1234

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Wed Jan-30-08 04:55 PM
Response to Original message

20. Isn't if funny. You can see how desperate the other candidates nombres

are. They twist, the fabricate, they type type type and goodness knows where it comes from.

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flpoljunkie

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Wed Jan-30-08 06:16 PM
Response to Reply #20

21. Desperate is having your 20 point lead reduced to a 6 point lead in one week!

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grantcart

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Wed Jan-30-08 09:24 PM
Response to Reply #20

25. this isn't desperation

its panic

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usregimechange

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Wed Jan-30-08 09:21 PM
Response to Original message

24. Yeah baby!

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hogwyld

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Wed Jan-30-08 09:27 PM
Response to Original message

27. Despite my liking Edwards, and Obamas recent surge

I feel it's too little, too late. Hillary will be our inevitable nominee, and I will vote for her over any puke.

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