Push polling and the 72 hour blitzkreig

Anyone think a Clark does a major 72 hour hit leading up to the NH primary? Chaulked full of push polls and ground attacks? What about Dean in SC? He could do some major push polling and ground stuff there leading up to the SC primary, and hit Clark on his perceived "weakspots" ie domestic issues. Clark could do some good stuff in SC I think and get away with it pretty well, a push poll asking whether getting a medical deferment and signing civil unions would make voters more or less likely to vote for him etc., I think it would play well in SC. This could get hot and heavy. Both guys have money.

This si about BUSH.

Clark needs 2nd in NH and 1st in SC to be viable.

Are you nuetral on this one or backing someone other than Clark? I would argue that Clark has to finish 3rd or a very close 4th if Lieberman finishs 3rd. Kerry at one point staked almost everything on winning NH. He spent multi millions there and countless days. Plus Kerry is from a neighboring state. NH gets much of it's media from Boston. Kerry didn't have to introduce himself to anyone in New Hampshire. Clark has been in the race about 3 months and hardly anyone knew him before he entered. Clark does NOT have to beat Kerry in New Hampshire to stay viable. Clark has to come in second in SC, first would be great. Clark has to beat out all of the other potential alternatives to Dean in SC, or be a very tight 3rd and whup most of the other guys in a couple of other states.

4th in NH? Clark is dead in the water if that happens. I think he needs to come in 2nd or MAYBE a very close 3rd in NH. He needs the momentum going into SC, which he has to win, period. He is from the south, is a military man, is touring the South right now, has Rangel and Young helping him there, he has to win SC. For a governor of Vermont to come down to SC and beat the Southern general would be a huge blow. Clark needs SC.

I wouldn't count out Clark coming in 2nd in NH by any means. NH primary voters historically like an outsider and Clark has raised alot of money.

Ideal Clark scenario:

2nd in NH

1st in SC

then springboard into the Feb 3rd type states as the "anti-Dean", in places like AZ etc.

South Carolina is on the third with several other states.

I still think he needs my scenario to win.

I do see that. He could argue Lieberman got the sympathy vote as a long time Senator from a New England state. It would have to be closely bunched between 2nd and 4th, with Kerry not running too strong a second. Then Clark would have to dominate everyone other than Dean on the 3rd, which might still be possible, since the others are low in money and trailing in the polls to Clark.

However coming in a clear third would not present Clark with much trouble, he would then need to consolidate on the 3rd though. 2nd for Clark in NH would be a great spring board.

Anti-Dean is a fantasy.

Clark isn't likely to do push-polling. Any shady tricks will only come back to haunt him, especially considering the tone his campaign has taken.

Third in NH would be fine, considering how short his campaign has been, and a win in SC would be phenomenal.

The underlying point is that Clark is in it until the end. He will not be dropping out until the convention unless Dean wins enough votes in the primaries to win the nomination outright on the first ballot. At that point it becomes silly to continue.

If the Dean doesn't collapse (which is what I expect will happen) he may have a chance at doing that. More likely he'll have to go into the convention without enough delegates committed to him to pull it out of the hat. Relying on endorsements and super-delegates to win, as he will find out (and which HE probably knows already even if his supporters don't) is a fools game. Those "voters" are open to all sorts of pressure and persuasion. If Dean, after this brilliant campaign, is unable to win enough delegates to prevail, the argument that he will be a weak candidate will hold a lot more water.

Of course, no other candidate will likely be doing better than Dean in the total delegate county (unless, of course, his campaign falters and stalls, as I expect it will) which would automatically make it seem that such a contender would have an even weaker chance at beating Bush, but we've all seen and read any number of analyses that challenge that assumption.

If Dean doesn't have it in hand before he walks into the convention, its extremely likely that he'll leave with it.

So, Clark's strategy of avoiding "battles" with the other candidates makes a lot more sense that it might seem at first glance.

Dean may be poised to wipe everybody out. We're not talking solely about South Carolina, but Missouri, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, Delaware, et cetera. It depends if Dean wins in Iowa and NH, and by what margins. If Dean wins decisively in both states, Clark will be poised to be the anti-Dean, which is more important strategically in my view than any negative tactics Lehane can think up. If Geppy and/or Kerry are still in the game by the third, it is all divide and conquer for the Dean campaign.

I do agree the Clark campaign will take the chance and make a push in NH. The advantages of a second place finish are tremendous. Kerry gets knocked out completely, which is important for the reasons mentioned above. Secondly, it gets Clark 50 million or so in free press coverage going into Feb 3rd.

J.H. Bowden

Because it keeps Kerry in the race.


Clark needs to hit NH hard. A 2nd place finish is crucial IMO. He can spring board that into SC as the anti-Dean.

If Kerry finishs a mediocre second he has nowhere left to go. It will be a sound rejection. A close second could keep him in the race I suppose.

Coming in 3rd in NH could conceivably end Kerry's campaign right there. Having Kerry out of the picture going into SC is HUGE for Clark in my opinion. Clark could play very well in SC.

wipe everyone out in Oklahoma.