New Polls: MO: O-44, C-42 and DE: C-44, O-42

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Clooooooose

:scared:

ARG has been off on every major poll this primary season.

They predicted Clinton would win Iowa by double digits, she lost by 8 to Obama.
They predicted Obama would win NH, he lost.
They predicted Clinton was within 3 of Obama in South Carolina, she lost by 30.

That's a pretty piss-poor record.

I've never seen a poll as off as ARG was and they were pretty good in 2004.

www.irishamericansforobama.com

regardless of the favorable Obama poll results. They have been consistently wrong all of the primary process.

As much as I would like to believe that MO poll is accurate, ARG has been off the mark consistently this cycle.

but I'll wait for Rassmussen or Gallup to chime in.

Or even SurveyUSA.

but they don't exactly have the best tract record either...(right now theyre saying McCain and Romney are tied nationally which I find unbelievable)

Jackson county - one of the must-have to win MO.

Over 200 calls, and from the people I spoke with I can report the following:

1 Hillary supporter
1 undecided Edwards supporter
2 McCain supporters
1 Romney supporter
...and every single other person for Obama.

I think he's going to win MO and win it big.

;)

But the big urban areas are key to winning MIssouri. And I'm guessing he's doing just as well in St. Louis, which borders his home state of Illinois.

Other than Jackson?

Independent City?

If St. Louis and Kansas City come out strong, especially the black community (which has traditionally been very fickle voters), it will be a huge day for Obama. If they stay home, Clinton wins easily. Polls, though, don't account for that. And while I generally trust most polls, in a race like this, where the voting trend is UP, things can dramatically shift. The only state where the polls have been right on is Nevada, where they had Hillary winning by about the margin she did. The polls leading up to Iowa were wrong, they were wrong in New Hampshire and they were wrong in South Carolina -- as most polls didn't predict a 15 point Obama win, let alone a 30 point one.

I've been contacted about phone banking, but I have never done anything like that before. I've looked at the script and basically know how it works, but I'm still nervous. Have you ran across any really mean people?

Even the Rethugs I spoke with today were pretty nice. The Romney guy acted like he was trying to zing me with his support of Romney but he was still pretty courteous.

The only nasty person I had was the single Hillary voter - I was actually phoning for her husband, who was on my list. I started with the standard, "Hi, I'm Neecy and I'm a volunteer for the Obama campaign" and she immediately snarled at me, "My husband is a Republican and I'm supporting Hillary" and slammed the phone down in my ear. Nice - the Rethugs were actually pretty nice and another Democrat slammed a phone down on me.

It was actually worse phone banking during the Kerry campaign - the occasional Republican could be fairly nasty. But so far, so good.

and I think he'll take it too.

There is only race and sex which separates these two corporate candidates.

I think it's more likely that Obama wins MO, Delware and say Arizona than it is that he wins Alabama which is supposed to be a good state for him. I just don't get the sense that Alabama is warming to him.

I was having a VERY very glum day campaign-wise until you posted these cheerful numbers! (even though they are ARG). Thanks!

But why don't I ever post Clinton endorsements?

sounds like good news to me