If Obama comes within a few points of Clinton in NJ and CT

and no more than 10 pts back in NY, Clinton is in real trouble. The tri-state area is one she should win handily. It's closely knit together in many ways, and it really is her backyard. If he wins CT or NJ, that'll be an enormous upset. Having him hot on her heels in the tri-state area shows a vulnerability that will be apparent to all. Hillary needs to win these states by a decent margin. If she can't, it's a strong indicator that she's in trouble.

But I live in an NYC Obama stronghold and its pretty quiet here. Every major NY pol is for Hillary.

But I still think he will win the City.

if he wins the city and worse if he wins CT. But he doesn't even have to win, all he has to do is keep it close.

RCP Average 01/23 - 02/01 - 53.8 33.5 Clinton +20.3
Rasmussen 01/31 - 02/01 799 LV 51 30 Clinton +21.0
SurveyUSA 01/30 - 01/31 950 LV 54 38 Clinton +16.0
WNBC/Marist 01/30 - 01/31 409 LV 54 38 Clinton +16.0
USA Today/Gallup 01/23 - 01/26 767 HT 56 28 Clinton +28.0
Quinnipiac 01/14 - 01/21 544 LV 51 25 Clinton +26.0
Zogby 01/19 - 01/20 425 LV 47 26 Clinton +21.0
Rasmussen 01/16 - 01/17 596 LV 51 30 Clinton +21.0
WNBC/Marist 01/15 - 01/17 426 LV 48 32 Clinton +16.0
Siena 01/14 - 01/17 311 RV 48 23 Clinton +25.0
SurveyUSA 01/09 - 01/10 957 LV 56 29 Clinton +27.0
Quinnipiac 12/04 - 12/10 461 RV 55 17 Clinton +38.0
Siena 12/03 - 12/06 273 RV 50 19 Clinton +31.0
NY1 10/26 - 11/03 670 RV 45 19 Clinton +26.0
Quinnipiac 10/09 - 10/15 468 RV 49 12 Clinton +37.0
Quinnipiac 09/24 - 09/30 637 RV 47 15 Clinton +32.0
Siena 07/24 - 07/28 290 RV 48 14 Clinton +34.0
Siena 06/18 - 06/21 378 RV 43 11 Clinton +32.0
Siena 05/18 - 05/25 301 RV 42 13 Clinton +29.0
Siena 04/16 - 04/20 RV 39 17 Clinton +22.0
NY1 04/04 - 04/07 496 RV 49 17 Clinton +32.0
American Res. Group 03/29 - 04/02 600 LV 41 20 Clinton +21.0
Quinnipiac 03/28 - 04/02 680 RV 44 14 Clinton +30.0
Marist 03/20 - 03/22 275 RV 44 14 Clinton +30.0
Siena 03/19 - 03/22 RV 43 11 Clinton +32.0
Siena 02/15 - 02/19 RV 44 13 Clinton +31.0
Quinnipiac 02/06 - 02/11 485 RV 47 16 Clinton +31.0
Siena 01/24 - 01/25 RV 58 11 Clinton +47.0


N.J. is not as close as you would like people to believe.

RCP Average 01/30 - 02/02 - 47.2 38.5 Clinton +8.7
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 01/31 - 02/02 868 LV 43 42 Clinton +1.0
Monmouth/Gannett 01/30 - 02/01 718 LV 50 36 Clinton +14.0
Mason-Dixon 01/30 - 02/01 400 LV 46 39 Clinton +7.0
SurveyUSA 01/30 - 01/31 642 LV 51 39 Clinton +12.0
GQR (D) 01/30 - 01/31 600 LV 44 38 Clinton +6.0
Rasmussen 01/30 - 01/30 785 LV 49 37 Clinton +12.0
Quinnipiac 01/15 - 01/22 464 LV 49 32 Clinton +17.0
Rasmussen 01/15 - 01/15 866 LV 45 27 Clinton +18.0
Monmouth/Gannett 01/09 - 01/13 475 LV 42 30 Clinton +12.0
Research 2000 01/09 - 01/10 400 LV 48 23 Clinton +25.0
Quinnipiac 12/05 - 12/09 387 RV 51 17 Clinton +34.0
Rutgers-Eagleton 10/18 - 10/23 415 RV 52 21 Clinton +31.0
Quinnipiac 10/09 - 10/15 343 RV 46 20 Clinton +26.0
Strategic Vision (R) 09/28 - 09/30 LV 52 21 Clinton +31.0
Monmouth/Gannett 09/17 - 09/30 478 LV 42 23 Clinton +19.0
Quinnipiac 09/18 - 09/23 406 RV 46 15 Clinton +31.0
Strategic Vision (R) 08/24 - 08/26 LV 49 22 Clinton +27.0
Rutgers-Eagleton 08/02 - 08/07 RV 45 21 Clinton +24.0
Strategic Vision (R) 07/13 - 07/15 LV 46 20 Clinton +26.0
Quinnipiac 06/26 - 07/02 575 RV 37 15 Clinton +22.0
Strategic Vision (R) 04/25 - 04/27 LV 40 23 Clinton +17.0
Monmouth/Gannett 04/11 - 04/16 451 LV 41 22 Clinton +19.0
Quinnipiac 04/10 - 04/16 504 RV 38 16 Clinton +22.0
American Res. Group 03/29 - 04/02 600 LV 37 23 Clinton +14.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 02/27 - 03/04 368 RV 46 18 Clinton +28.0
Quinnipiac 02/20 - 02/25 RV 41 19 Clinton +22.0
Quinnipiac 01/16 - 01/22 461 RV 30 16 Clinton +14.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 01/02 - 01/07 272 RV 41 15 Clinton +26.0


It's close in CT. But we have seen when it's close what actually happens.

RCP Average 01/09 - 01/31 - 41.7 38.3 Clinton +3.4
SurveyUSA 01/30 - 01/31 679 LV 44 48 Obama +4.0
Rasmussen 01/27 - 01/27 899 LV 40 40 Tie
Hartford Courant 01/09 - 01/17 403 LV 41 27 Clinton +14.0
Quinnipiac 11/01 - 11/05 385 RV 45 19 Clinton +26.0
Quinnipiac 10/09 - 10/15 530 RV 43 16 Clinton +27.0
Quinnipiac 05/02 - 05/07 543 RV 28 20 Clinton +8.0

She could blow him out of the water on Tuesday. I don't think there's any chance he could do the same, but if he keeps it close, that is simply not good news for her. It keeps his momentum going and boost it going into the upcoming primaries.

"I'm not putting a lot of stock in polls."

Ok. I can respect that. Then why do you go and make OP's like these?:

(Cali Thread) Zogby: Obama ahead in California; tied in Missouri and New Jersey (also ahead in Utah)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4363516

(Cali Thread) CA Field Poll: Hillary-36 Obama-34 Und-18
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4363441


Those are just posts I found on the front page. I'm sure you've been inside threads playing up Obama's poll numbers. I've said it many times, Cali will say not to do something (Don't put stock in polls!) and then go do the exact opposite (create posts about the polls when they favor her candidate). She truly doesn't see the irony in her actions...

blurry ones. And sure, I like to look at polls that show Obama doing well, but try a little bit of logic if you're at all capable of doing so- something that seems very unlikely. Just because I post them or enjoy seeing Obama doing well in polls, doesn't mean that I don't take those polls with a large pinch of salt. It's really not very complicated for anyone with a brain. It seems very difficult for you, but then it's clear you, boopsie don't fall into that category.

Alrighty. The irony swoops over Cali's head once again :rofl::rofl::rofl:

C'mon. I do it DESPITE myself. I see a poll favoing Obama and I get kind of psyched despite telling myself the pollsdon't mean anything. I see a poll favoring Clinton I get bummed, but then tell myself polls don't matter. It's just the nature of the beast.

Cali will directly/indirectly attack others for doing something, and then do it herself. She's a textbook hypocrite. For instance, I remember her constantly making threads that bashed John Edwards. Then I log on to DU one day, and see a thread by her about how people are "unfairly bashing John Edwards" and how it has to stop. Even her fellow hardcore Obama supporters see what she's doing, and can't stand her. Just ask Wolsh.

Now here is another perfect example. Cali forms an opinion based on the polls (Obama is doing very well in New York, Hillary must beat him by alot to remain competitive). Then, in the very same thread she says "I don't put much stock in the polls."

Sure, plenty of DUers do that. What's unique about Cali, is that she actually believes that nobody notices when does it.

How predictable, darling.

First of all, I posted all of 9 threads critical of Edwards. And I posted 5 favorable, sweetums.

And the night of NV, I posted something about it being NOT the right time to gloat about JE's loss there, as I remember being a Dean supporter.

And, poopsie, speaking for others simply demonstrates that you're so insecure about your own opinions that you have to bolster your own with what you wnat to believe masses of others believe.

And I suggest, crumpet, that you stop calling me out. It's typical of you to do this repeatedly. Don't do it again, little bitler.

Just ask Wolsh.

I frequently comment on threads with polls showing Hillary well ahead and unlike you, I don't automatically refute them.

Not only does little lurid not know what irony is, the poor liitle thing wouldn't understand honesty if it kicked her in her rear or slapped her across the face.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Ooh, I can do little smilies too.

Link please. Aww, I love Cali the textbook hypocrite.

If he keeps it close on Super Tuesday nationwide, he might just win this thing. I think he'll keep it close in the City and in CT he might just win a la Lamont. I got several CT residents to register last week to vote for Barack.

I think, on Tuesday, they'll come out about even on that score

She was going to vote but Hillary, but is now voting for Obama. My younger daughter and her fiancee always were for Obama.

They are all in NY.

FROM RUDY to OBAMA !



Hillary? THIS bumper sticker is for YOU & Bill

And only Up by 100 delegates and OUT of $$$$'s





She's going to look like Tex Cobb by June.

Satisfied with a close call means loserville, IMO. btw, Obama might win CT, but apparently cali wants to keep the expectations down to celebrate the results. Pretty transparent post.

Amateur politicians do this (keep expectations down when they're losing), so they can exult over only losing by a little. Pros are a little more subtle.

is going to clean up that VA, MD, and Washington area.