Zogby: Clinton in Free Fall in California

UTICA, New York – The final day of polling before Super Tuesday was one of hardening positions in key races across the country, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby survey work shows.

Arizona Sen. John McCain continued to dominate among Republicans in the states polled in the surveys, with 50% or more supporting him in New Jersey and New York. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won less than half that in those states.

Romney continued to lead, however, in delegate-rich California, with 40% support in that state, to McCain’s 33%. The Republican race was tighter in Missouri, with McCain ahead with 34% support, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in second with 27% and Romney third with 25% support.

On the Democratic side, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama continued to fight neck and neck for their party’s voters and delegates. Obama solidified his lead in California, but Clinton pulled ahead in New Jersey, where the two had been tied in the previous poll.

This is the third release of figures from rolling telephone tracking polls in New York, New Jersey, Georgia, Missouri and California. In Georgia, only the Democratic race was polled and in New York only the Republican race.

Pollster John Zogby: “In California, we have Obama polling into a 13-point lead. Monday was another big single day of polling for him there. What has happened here is that in addition to building leads among almost every part of his base of support, he has dramatically cut into Clinton’s lead among Hispanic voters.

“On the Republican side in California, Romney has solidified his edge over McCain by virtue of a very strong showing in Southern California.

“In New Jersey, Clinton has pulled into a lead. She is ahead among Democrats, women, and Hispanics. Obama is ahead among independent voters.

“In Missouri, Obama leads the Democratic race on the strength of big support in the St. Louis region. Overall in the Democratic race here, it is just too close to call.”


New Jersey - Democrats
Democrats
2/2-4 2/1-3 1/31-2/2

Clinton
46% 43% 43%

Obama
41% 43% 42%

Gravel
<1% 1% 1%

Someone else
3% 3.4% 4%

Undecided
10% 10% 10%


Clinton’s lead over Obama in New Jersey grew in the final day before the primary. The two frontrunners had been tied at 43% the day before, but Clinton jumped to 46% support as Obama dropped to 41% support Monday. The former First Lady was well ahead of Obama among registered Democrats, with 48% to his 39% support. Obama, however, had a big edge with independent voters, with 49% of their support to Clinton’s 39%. Voters under 30 backed Obama overwhelmingly, 63% to Clinton’s 36%. Though 10% of New Jersey voters were undecided, only 2% of the youngest voters were. Clinton dominated with older voters, getting 60% of their support to Obama’s 24%. The three-day tracking survey included 872 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.



Georgia - Democrats
Democrats
2/2-2/4 2/1-2/3 1/31-2/2

Obama
49% 48% 48%

Clinton
29% 31% 28%

Gravel
1% 2% 1%

Someone else
9% 10% 10%

Undecided
12% 11% 13%


Obama’s strong lead over Clinton broadened by three points in the final day before Super Tuesday. He ended Monday with 49% support, up a point from the day before, compared to Clinton’s 29% support, which was down two points from the previous day. Black voters, who make up about half the sample, gave Obama 68% support, up a point from the day before. Clinton, meanwhile, lost a point among African-American voters to end at 17%. Obama even edged up a notch among women. He was already well ahead of Clinton with Georgia women, and closed the tracking period with 48% of their support. This three-day tracking survey included 865 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.


Missouri - Democrats
Democrats
2/2-2/4 2/1-2/3 1/31-2/2

Obama
45% 47% 43%

Clinton
42% 42% 44%

Gravel
<1% <1% 1%

Someone else
3% 3% 3%

Undecided
9% 9% 10%


Obama holds a tiny edge here, as he leads by 10 points among men and trails Clinton by only two points. He leads big in the St. Louis area, which borders his home state of Illinois. This three-day tracking survey included 860 likely voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

California - Democrats
Democrats
2/3-4 2/1-2/3 1/31-2/2

Obama
49% 46% 45%

Clinton
36% 40% 41%

Gravel
1% <1% <1%

Someone else
5% 5% 6%

Undecided
9% 9% 9%




Obama has built a sturdy lead here, among both Democrats and independents. He leads Clinton big among both men (55% to her 29%) and women (45% to her 42%). He leads among all age groups except among those age 65 and older, where Clinton holds a slim edge. He leads among both moderates and progressives, but those mainline liberal Democrats still favor Clinton by a very narrow margin. This two-day tracking survey included 895 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Zogby will be the laughing stock of the polling community.

MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama expanded his lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire to 13 points as voting began in the state's critical presidential primary, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday...
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0433304720080108

But Obama sure is hitting his stride.

Those voters can swing the closer states either way.

May not be as much of a wild card as some think:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/02/more-on-the-myth-of-early-voti-1.php

I guess we'll find out in about, oh, 15 hours.

--p!

that large of a lead. He might have a lead but I'm not sure it is by that much. I'm still worried about those early votes.

**One thing I will note is that one one of the shows yesterday (MSNBC) Daschle (sp?) said that their internal polls showed that their hispanic support was increasing. I can't remember if he was saying that in relation to CA or not? The reporter was feeding him the line about hispanics not voting for blacks.

But I feel compelled to point out that Zogby sucks. You'd be just as well served by flipping a coin. In fact, try it and see.

So, it is more properly an Expensive Fall.

to note is that Hillary did spend a lot of her pre-Super Tuesday time in CA. THen Bill Clinton spent all day in different parts of CA yesterday. Their internal polls must have been showing them something. Obama spent one day there and he was out of there. Daschle said they did not expect to win CA. They just wanted to keep it close.

When he said that Kerry would have a "comfortable" win.

pretty close, too.

But remember, he was not factoring in Republican election theft on behalf of George W. Bush.

Undecided voters break overwhelmingly for the challenger in races featuring an incumbent. Senator Kerry was closing or tied with Bush on the day Osama Bin Laden released his video in November of 2004. Kerry's upward movement in the polls, including Zogby's daily tracking poll, flat lined that day. By the weekend before the election the movement was reversed to Bush. By Tuesday Bush was up 2-3%.

The Republicans played to fear and Osama tossed them a trump card 5 days before election day. The result? Four more years of fubar, failure and "f" up. The time of being afraid in America ended in 2006. Courage to stand for change blew ashore with an ill wind called Katrina.

mike kohr

just FYI.

Would Maria Shriver have that much of an impact?

:bounce:

you're hoping that the people who voted before they found out who Obama is and what he stands for will pull Hillary over the top.

You're implicitly saying:

Hillary Clinton: The Candidate of the Uninformed Electorate



Once Obama starts campaigning in a state, people switch to him... that's what you're admitting here.

heads? Maybe, just MAYBE, people KNEW who they wanted to vote for and no amount of empty rhetoric would have made them take a ride on the "hope express?" Some people have brains they actually USE....

Although the one thing that comforts me as an Obama supporter is the fact that most people who voted early probably weren't the ones who were on the fence. I would have no problem voting a month in advance in a general election, since I'm a hardcore Democrat, but swing voters might be more likely to wait it out and decide on or close to election day.

Since polls have shown Obama picking up more Edwards supporters than Clinton in California, early voting might also hurt him, because people who voted early for Edwards before he dropped out might have been more inclined to switch to Obama if they had waited until election day.

I guess there's nothing we can do but wait now, frustrating as that is.

Obama is surely catching up but I think California will be a lot closer. And the delegate apportionment is always, uh - weird.

There is only mear value in wining th popoular vote in CA.

And afraid they raise the stakes for Obama. There is no way he will win California by 13%, with as many as half of the votes coming in before he started to gain traction there. But now if he loses or even wins narrowly, it could be spun as a disappointment.

Vietnam Vets are going "hand to hand" and "belt buckle to belt buckle" VS. the machine pols in Jersey, today. It'll be damned close.

FIX BAY-O-NETS!

Hope he's right on California. We need Obama to win it big to finish the night.

Keep hope alive! :dem: