When to start watching, what to watch for, as polls close hour-by-hour tonight...

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
02/ 5/2008
Super Tuesday Viewer's Guide

....7 p.m.: Polls in Georgia close. The Peach State could be a good prognosticator of what the rest of the country holds for the Democratic contest between Sens. Barack Obama (Ill.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.). Georgia is a likely win for Obama given its 30 percent black population -- but watch for how soon the race gets called. Do the networks call it the moment the polls close? If so, that's good news for Obama. The longer the networks wait to call Georgia, the better for Clinton.

8 p.m.: The big enchilada in terms of poll closing times with nine primary states and a caucus (Kansas Democrats)....

On the Democratic side, both Clinton and Obama have a few likely wins during this hour. For Obama, Illinois and Alabama will almost certainly go his way. For Clinton, Connecticut and Oklahoma should be wins. That leaves a handful of jump-ball states including New Jersey and Missouri. Again, if part of tonight is about scoring symbolic victories, an Obama win in New Jersey -- ostensibly Clinton's backyard -- could send a powerful message about where election night is headed. Missouri is central -- both in terms of geography and the candidates' winning formula. Missouri is literally and figuratively the gateway to the southwest and west today and winning it would give either candidate a nice boost heading into the second half of the night.

9 p.m.: Clinton should get a nice boost between 8:30 p.m. (when Arkansas' polls close) and 9 p.m. when the polling places in New York shut their doors. Both states look like relatively pedestrian victories for Clinton and should be called almost as soon as the polls close. Anything short of that scenario could spell trouble for Clinton.

Many of the caucuses -- Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota -- will be announcing their results around this time as well. Those should all be Obama wins and should allow him to push back against the Clinton victories in New York and Arkansas.

Our guess is that attention quickly will turn to Arizona which both campaigns believe they can win. Obama has Gov. Janet Napolitano and her political machine on his side but the state has a large Hispanic population -- a group that favored Clinton so far. This is a HUGE contest in terms of swinging momentum....

11 p.m.: California, the state we've all been waiting for all night, finally closes its polling places. California once looked like a lock for Clinton and McCain but no longer.

On the Democratic side, Obama has made up ground rapidly and enters Election Day with a 50-50 chance of carrying the state. There are really two fights at work in the Golden State. The first is the practical fight for delegates, a battle that seems almost certain to end in something close to a draw due to the proportional manner of winning delegates by congressional district and the differing areas of strength for Clinton and Obama. The second, and perhaps more important fight, is one of perception. California is by far the biggest Super Tuesday state. Combine that with the fact it is the only state with polls that close at 11 p.m. and it's easy to conclude that the eyes of the political world -- and the average voter as well -- will be directly on it from 11 p.m. on. A victory here will leave a strong impression before we all go to bed and get ready to sift through the Super Tuesday detritus on Hangover Wednesday....

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/02/the_fixs_super_tuesday_viewers.html

here on the East Coast.

That's interesting about Arizona -- it'll be exciting to watch!

Thanks for posting this.

11 p.m. EDT.

like when the east coast polls close they start doing coverage even though California has yet to vote? Being from California I think this stinks because what happens on the east coast can effect what people out here do. People like to vote for winners so if a candidate pulls off an early lead in the east, people in the west might jump on the bandwagon.

as they come in -- before, for example, polls close in California.

It's not a sure thing for Clinton either, although I expect her to win. Obama will make it very close.

Santy's bringing me a full plate of election returns!!

Yaaayyyyyyy!

since I've been addicted to DU for the last few weeks. I have a no DU after 10 p.m. rule now. I started losing sleep. Waking up in the middle of the night thinking about how to respond to OzarkDem or jlake.

Now I know how to plan my evening.

I'll definitely be making popcorn.:popcorn: and having a few drinks:beer:

CT appears to be a more likely win for Obama than NJ, and NM is not supposed to be an easy win for him. Missouri is favored for Clinton, etc.

That will be Georgia's.