Poll of CA Dems. Feb 3-4th: Obama 49%, Clinton 36%!

jenmito

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:28 PM
Original message

Poll of CA Dems. Feb 3-4th: Obama 49%, Clinton 36%!

WOW!!! Just saw it on MSNBC. Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll.

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tritsofme

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:29 PM
Response to Original message

1. Gee whiz, this is probably the first time this poll has been posted today.

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Kittycat

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:30 PM
Response to Reply #1

3. first time I'm seeing it. Thank you OP for sharing.

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jenmito

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:33 PM
Response to Reply #3

8. No problem! It's the first I saw it, too, or I wouldn't have started a thread on it.

:hi:

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mutant80

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #8

17. self delete

Edited on Tue Feb-05-08 03:41 PM by mutant80

self delete

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RiverStone

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Tue Feb-05-08 04:17 PM
Response to Reply #3

24. First time here too - gotta work sometimes!

Edited on Tue Feb-05-08 04:20 PM by RiverStone

Thanks for sharing. If Obama takes CA., that would be THE STORY of tonight.

Of course, don't want to get greedy too quick....just a damn nice thought.:)

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jenmito

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #1

5. I looked and didn't see any other threads on it. Do you mind?

:eyes:

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tritsofme

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:33 PM
Response to Reply #5

7. Sorry for the snap.

But when you posted this thread there were 3 threads on the first page of GDP about this poll.

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jenmito

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #7

10. That's ok, but I didn't see any.

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NoBorders

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #1

12. As an Obama supporter, I'm ignoring this poll

Sorry, but that's crazy. If it turns out that big, great, but no way I'm expecting it.

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jenmito

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:37 PM
Response to Reply #12

14. That's reasonable. I'm just reporting what they just showed on MSNBC.

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NoBorders

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:42 PM
Response to Reply #14

20. I hear ya'

Not shooting the messenger. :-)

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jenmito

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Tue Feb-05-08 04:31 PM
Response to Reply #20

25. Thanks.

I don't want to die yet. :)

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Kittycat

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:41 PM
Response to Reply #12

18. Not expecting it either. We have to keep in mind that they have early voting in play.

But it's nice knowing that he closed the ground between a couple weeks back and today. I'm still not banking on a CA delegate win, but I think he'll come close to tying.

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NoBorders

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:44 PM
Response to Reply #18

21. The early voting doesn't necessarily help Clinton

Take a look at this on TPM:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/02/more-on-the-myth-of-early-voti-1.php

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billbuckhead

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:30 PM
Response to Original message

2. You mean from Obama superdelegate James Zogby?

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jenmito

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:32 PM
Response to Reply #2

6. Are Reuters and C-Span also "on his side"?

Good try.

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tritsofme

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #6

9. Reuters and CSPAN only footed the bill for the poll.

Although I don't think there is any bias on Zogby's part.

Its either a brilliant poll or an outlier. I'm betting on the latter.

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jenmito

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #9

11. How do you know? And I doubt it's an outlier. This is the most recent poll and his

numbers have been rising every day!

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tritsofme

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:41 PM
Response to Reply #11

19. That's how polls work.

A news organization pays a respected pollster to make a poll for them.

This is the only poll that shows such a large Obama lead, and unless it is proven right tonight, it will have been an outlier.

5% of polls conducted correctly will be outside the MOE and are garbage.

I prefer to look at averages:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html

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jenmito

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Tue Feb-05-08 04:36 PM
Response to Reply #19

26. Thanks for the link. Did you notice their intrade numbers? Obama-61 to Clinton 40!

Edited on Tue Feb-05-08 04:37 PM by jenmito

Just sayin'.

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tritsofme

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Wed Feb-06-08 05:49 AM
Response to Reply #11

39. This is what I was talking about when I said the poll was an outlier.

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billbuckhead

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #6

23. I know NPR certainly is

Much if the corporate media has been cheerleading Obama and those who keep track have stats to prove it.

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jenmito

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Tue Feb-05-08 04:38 PM
Response to Reply #23

27. Did NPR endorse him?

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billbuckhead

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Tue Feb-05-08 04:44 PM
Response to Reply #27

29. Better than that! They have softball interviews with him during prime drivetime

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jenmito

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Tue Feb-05-08 04:53 PM
Response to Reply #29

30. That's your opinion.

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NJSecularist

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:30 PM
Response to Original message

4. I think this might be the break of the new voters who have decided within the last week

But the race will be much closer than this.

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jenmito

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:37 PM
Response to Reply #4

13. I agree...

and I agree...especially because of the early voting.

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HughMoran

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:39 PM
Response to Original message

15. Posted last night. Here is a Feb 3 to Feb 4 Survey USA poll for comparision...

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jaysunb

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:39 PM
Response to Original message

16. Hope it's enough to balance out the early votes

n/t

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Meshuga

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Tue Feb-05-08 03:44 PM
Response to Original message

22. I'm for Obama but I don't trust polls

Specially when they are so volatile. I will only say "wow" or celebrate after seeing actual results.

What kills me is the fact that there are paper ballots and we are only going to know for sure sometime tomorrow. :-)

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jenmito

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Tue Feb-05-08 04:54 PM
Response to Reply #22

31. I feel the same way...

And I may not be able to sleep until tomorrow!

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Meshuga

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Tue Feb-05-08 05:15 PM
Response to Reply #31

35. This is big

And I can't wait to see what unfolds. :-)

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jenmito

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Tue Feb-05-08 06:35 PM
Response to Reply #35

36. Yes, it is!

And Yes We Can! :)

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TheWraith

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Tue Feb-05-08 04:39 PM
Response to Original message

28. That sounds WAAY out there.

Yes, it's been tightening in Obama's favor, but there's no way that there's a sudden 13 point gap. I wouldn't buy anything more than five, personally.

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jenmito

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Tue Feb-05-08 04:56 PM
Response to Reply #28

32. You could be right, but look at what happened in SC!

Maybe the same thing's happening in CA since he really had the big guns come out for him this past weekend.

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TheWraith

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Tue Feb-05-08 05:04 PM
Response to Reply #32

33. True, though part of SC was late-breaking undecideds.

They went heavily for Obama. Plus the negative campaigning of the Clinton camp pushed more people out of their corner, and they've toned that down a bit in the last week or so.

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jenmito

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Tue Feb-05-08 06:40 PM
Response to Reply #33

37. Yes, which may be happening again...

And although the Clintons calmed down the negative campaigning this time, SO much has given Obama last-minute momentum that it may have changed peoples' votes to Obama.

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David Zephyr

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Tue Feb-05-08 05:13 PM
Response to Original message

34. I am one of the proud 49%! here in the Golden State!

http://userwww.sfsu.edu/~nliang/Picture/YosemiteNationalPark,California_1.jpg

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jenmito

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Tue Feb-05-08 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #34

38. YAY! How long ago did you decide on Obama?

Edited on Tue Feb-05-08 06:41 PM by jenmito

p.s. Nice pic, BTW! :hi:

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William769

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Wed Feb-06-08 05:50 AM
Response to Reply #38

40. So much for that poll.

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joshcryer

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Wed Feb-06-08 05:50 AM
Response to Original message

41. Well I guess this didn't turn out the way people were expecting.

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