Analysis: Population shifts may help Dem. in electoral college!

Interesting, fascinating article I just found from today's Newark Star-Ledger:

"It seems like basic political math. The states that voted Republican in the 2000 presidential election have gained population. The states that went Democratic have shrunk. President Bush, therefore, has a built-in advantage over Sen. John Kerry....

But demographic shifts cut both ways, an analysis by The Star-Ledger finds. The changes actually may help Kerry's chances in some Republican states while they weaken his position in some traditional Democratic strongholds.....

The Star-Ledger analysis, based on Internal Revenue Service data that track population flows from county to county, shows one overriding trend: a migration of voters from the North and Midwest into traditional GOP territory, mostly in the South and West....

Overall, The Star-Ledger analysis shows a net shift of 900,000 likely Democratic voters from the 20 states that voted for Gore in 2000 into the 30 states that voted for Bush....."

As people switch states, election calculus changes

people in the north and midwest are on average, more democratic.

however, i wonder, the people who choose to leave those areas in favor of the south and west ... are they perhaps the more conservative ones?

people usually don't move just for political reasons, so i suppose i'm worried about a very minor factor, but my point is that the 'those migrating from the midwest/north' are a different sample from 'those living in the midwest/north'.

actually, the greater effect would be the mere fact that they are able to move, meaning they're more likely richer and therefore more likely conservative.

as in: needing work? Besides, the study was done carefully to reflect actual voter sentiments.

2 went to North Carolina, 1 Dem family the other split 1/2 Repub (wife still votes dem) and the other, moved to Florida votes Dem. So that study could be right on the money.

I can certainly attest to the fact that there is a significant conservative migration from the north to the south. The reason New England and the upper Midwest are so consistently Democratic, and conversely the reason the South is staying solidly Republican, is due to this migration. Some of the fastest growing counties in the country are the suburban counties of Atlanta, and Nashville's are not far behind, you can check out www.census.gov to see their rankings. These counties are becoming rabidly Republican. Atlanta's core counties are now and have been for awhile some of the most Democratic counties in the South, Dekalb went 70-26 for Gore in 2000. But just to the north lie counties like Forsyth and Cherokee, which went 78-19 and 73-24 for Bush respectively. Without these "reinforcements", states like TN and GA would be much more competitive now, of course so would the upper Midwest.

...I think there may be some validity to this. Our best friends in NC were all "Yankees" like us. They tended to vote Democratic. I believe we helped get Edwards elected in 1998 and most current state officers are Democrat.

This is also the state where Elizabeth Dole won with only 54% of the vote (the media gave the impression she would win with over 60%) and this is also a state where NASCAR-god Richard Petty lost a statewide election for Secretary of State against a woman!!.

The Democrats might be wise to not totally write NC off in 2004. In addition to the shifting demographics, there is a rapidly growing immigrant population that would probably lean Democratic.

All these yankees moved in from New York and Bostong (IBM and banking folks). We thought for sure the demographics would change. Well they didn't. The newbies were pretty conservative (except on race issues) and voted republican and voted for Helms over Gantt.

I wouldn't hold my breath.

Now Arizona, with its increased retirees, maybe!

...I didn't mean to make it sound like North Carolina was some kind of liberal utopia. But facts are facts. Edwards won in 1998 against an incumbent right-wing Republican. The governor and most state officers are Democratic. Richard Petty did LOSE in 1996. Elizabeth Dole got an underwhelming 54% in 2002. Not everyone that has moved into NC are right-wingers from NY or Mass. I came from the midwest as did most of our friends. MOst of us are center-left. I attended some Democratic Party forums in 1996 and 1998 and could sense the "Yankee" influence. It's not perfect, but it is improving.

That is, we have "given" NC additional seats in Congress and more E.C. votes, in return we got GOP votes for Senators down to 54% and in the middle 50s for POTUS. It isn't enough.

I agree about knocking off Faircloth, but still think that more than 50% of those who move there vote GOP and not Dem.

Cheers!

Even in the South and SW, the maps look similar to the NE: cities vote Dem and suburbs and small towns lean Republican. Rural areas are a split, but lean Republican

If you're in a city, you're tightly packed together with other folks, and you're more likely to be an immigrant or a minority, and you can't just block out the suffering of the poor. Demographic shifts indicate differential population, not just movement, and the growth of large cities in the S and SW mean that they'll start turning bluer.

They're hardly part of the South culturally or politically.

They are moving to the south in record numbers, particlarly to South Carolina and Florida. Meanwhile, we chill out in the cities and continue to vote Dem.

sounds good.