Slice it however you like, but it looks like Hillary is in deep Sh*t

This isn't a spin post. This is an assessment that is coming out from a number of sources now. Hillary can still pull this out, but the chances are far less than 50% now I think. Things against her include:

* She's running low on cash and isn't getting any in. Her top advisors aren't being paid any more and she's loaning money to cover the gap in funding. A huge percentage of her donors are already tapped out.

* They are JUST NOW trying to redo their website and sell it to bring in more online contributions. This is way too late.

* Her campaign strategy assumed she would win out on Super Tuesday. This means her organizational strength will be weaker from here on out.

* The next group of states are most likely going to Obama. If he wins all the states through Feb 12, Hillary will have a REALLY hard time fundraising, and will most likely not do well in the later Feb states.

* In addition to running full-out on the Feb states, Obama will have the money to start blanketing Texas and Ohio in funds and staff, while Hillary will have to do a "Rudy in Florida" strategy to hope she can recover.

Like Rudy, she can still wait and pull out victories in Texas and Ohio. She might also be able to pressure a greater percentage of super-delegates based on previous things the Clintons have done for them. But this is by no means a high percentage strategy. If Obama can pick off Ohio for instance (the previously pledged unions for Edwards there will make a difference if Obama gets them), then Hillary's chances going into the stretch run look bad indeed.

Lets face it, she's on the ropes folks. She fights really well with her back against the wall, so I don't see Obama walking over her, but she REALLY has a serious fight on her hand now.

Which will give her free media coverage.

This doesn't change the fact that she's in deep shit, and she knows it.

I agree its a smart strategy to try to force Barack to debate her. The Fox thing is particularly well done. This directly challenges Barack's line about going after republicans. If he doesn't agree, Fox will hammer him on this.

1. It only matters to us "inside baseball" types who devour this shit. The average voter doesn't give a fuck about debates.

2. There is a very simple response to the "you is scared to be debatin' me" argument: we've already debated 18 times (or whatever the number is) over the last year. We just debated last week. I'm busy talking to folks and attracting voters.

3. There is a very simple response to the "you ain't goin' after republicans cuz you won't go on fox newz" argument: when fox news starts behaving like a news agency and stops running news stories about me being a closeted muslim sleeper terrorist, I'll consider going on their network. But we're doing just fine with Republicans right now without Fox News.

seem like he is afraid to debate her. I'm guessing Obama sees this and accepts.

they already debated 18 times or whatever it is. He'll probably accept. After all, he debated Alan Keyes in IL when he was up 65% or whatever it was...then surged to 70% afterwards. But I'd tell Clinton to go pay for her own airtime if she wants to slam me.

As I said in our discussion down thread, if the Clintons get the money, they are going to go nuclear. It will be SC multiplied tenfold. If he willingly walks into a debate to give her an hour and a half to drag him into the mud, then he is *officially* going against Sir Jeffrey's advice.

And will attack her at every turn. He has the media, and that is all he needs.

She is getting the MSM to say that any loss to Obama prior to March 4 is a huge loss for him. In essence, they are trying to get them to say that even if Obama wins out, he's just holding serve.

They have already started spouting this nonsense.

... of the WHOLE United States (with the implication that Hillary's reverting to the same old divisive politics).

If he can't handle Hillary's maneuver, he'll be in big trouble against the Rethug machine.

Obama's strategy is not to debate anymore then he will already have a viable reason for why he's not. This is the first I've heard of "no more debates" so we'll see.

He just hasn't accepted the Fox thing yet...

Not my specialty, really. :)

The 25%ers are watching it, and they ain't Democrats -- and they aren't even Obamalinton crossover Republicans.

on the ground organization.

She wants to play to hers: debates

If you got A-Rod at the plate and a runner on third, you don't put some schmuck pitcher on the mound and hope your outfielders can catch the ball.

She is in deep trouble regardless. If she can get Barack to make a serious gaff, she might turn the tide. I'm guessing this is her hope anyway...

:puke:

Obama has to accept. If not, his pitch that he is going after republican votes is gonna get hammered continuously by Fox. My guess is Obama accepts.

Bottom line, point for Hillary there on tactics, IMHO.

Obama accepts, they debate on FOX, then his ratings with repubs and indies goes up. Could well happen!

... likely stopped watching Fox a few years back. It's the last refuge for the 25%ers now, and they aren't going anywhere.

That was a very shrewd move on Clinton's part, and probably her best strategy.

already (18) shows this to be ridiculous. Why so "snarky"(???) can't you just post without the petty digs.

Everything has been debated, no reason to go over the same thing

Hillary is on her own, see if she can do anything without riding on a mans coattails.

That would be a first, eh?

And how old are you?

Truly it is, especially given what most are like here. :)

After all, there have been what, about two dozen Democratic debates so far? Really, I think that has been done enough. Without the cash to buy TV time, Sen. Clinton's campaign needs to have her face out there getting her message out, thus the debate strategy.

Sen. Obama is not obliged to help Sen. Clinton get airtime and I am sure there will be more debates, just not every week as some would like.

Finally, yes! What a man! He is living the American dream...a biracial kid growing up in a single-parent home now on his way to become President. Gotta love that American story.

besides me, that is.

... and it would make no sense for him to assist in getting her free air time. I'm sure they'll debate, but once a week is ridiculous. (And not just because of the free air time, but because it would take him away from pressing the flesh.)

Only someone trailing in the polls demands more debates.
As a frontrunner, it is NOT smart to agree to debates.

THIS (calling for debates), more than anything else, is proof of desperation in the Hillary campaign.

I think 17 already? (?)

So, if Dean wants this done by April....

Instead of being brokered in June I think it was.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4450448

Has she lost her mind? With a debate a week, she's not going to be campaigning much thats for darn sure. But with the money situation, if it really is as reported, she wouldn't really have the funds to campaign anyway...

I suppose its a way to keep Obama from getting additional groundwork in as well.

Nuts I tell you....nuttier than squirrel poo.

remember her front runner status as senator? SHE REFUSED to debate because it would raise her opponent's presence.

Now she demands debates? That tells you everything about her that you need to know.

Obama pulled very well in traditonal "Red States"

Young Hispanic voters are breaking to Obama

Obama has between 90 and 94 delegates from New York .... that is 38 to 40%
of the total from Clinton's home turf. And that is big almost worth double per
delegate 1 less for Clinton and 1 more for Obama.

The next 3 races are caucuses which favor Obama. Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington.
Mark Penn's staying out of caucuses idea has back fired.

After that MD, VA, and Washington D.C. come into play again Obama will do very well
in those areas

Does the Clinton Campaign have enough money? .... donors are maxed out @ $2,300 in
the primary and it looks like "they" were planning to have this wrapped up yesterday.

For all the Kennedy & Kerry support did not help Obama the #s say different he went from
15 % to 37 % in MA and had a big jump in N.Y. too. Across the country Obama's #s jumped
after the endorsement.

Money is pouring into Obama's campaign.

Obama is showing the ability to bring in Indies and Republicans .... Hillary not so much

Hillary has a high negative # among many people and that will not change.

Obama has the momentum

In case you care:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/02/clinton-senior.html

I doubt she's spent ALL of it.

P R E S I D E N T I A L C A N D I D A T E
Hillary Clinton (D)
Senator from New York
Clinton emerged from 2007 as the top fundraiser of either party, having brought in a total of $115.7 million, far above the $75 million her campaign had set out to raise last year. In the last three months of 2007, she collected $26.6 million, slightly less than during the previous two quarters. Clinton continues to face steep competition from Barack Obama, whose campaign has informally reported raising about $1 million a day in the month of January, but this New York senator has been the fundraiser to beat from the start.

Total Receipts: $115,652,361
Total Spent: $77,704,487
Cash on Hand: $37,947,874
Debts: $4,987,425
Date of last report: December 31, 2007
Totals may include compliance fund receipts

Yeah, I think that January was an expensive month for her, with 26 states voting and everything.

* Bypassed a number of states on Super Tuesday to concentrate on her strengths
* Her staffers are going without pay
* She has loaned her campaign 5 million
* Her campaign has publicly acknowledged they have to pick their battles now based on funding.

Bottom line, the actions of her campaign make it pretty clear she is hurting on cash.

I suspect that the Clinton team after South Carolina realized this game was likely to go into extra innings and began some premptive belt tightening in anticipation of that.

this is not a real concern??? Well I must say - Hillary is TRULY playing the expectations game incredibly well then, if this is the plan. I'm pretty much sold that she doesn't have a lot of cash. If she's flush with it, she's fooled everyone.

Just maybe not s dire as it looks, since I think they probably initiated an austeruty budget early because they knew they were going to need to stretch it out now.

that means they aren't getting paid on time either, and that means serious cash problems.

Do you really think she'd be loaning herself money in January, and her staff willing to go unpaid in February, if she had $37M on hand? That money is gone.

While Obama is bringing on hundreds of thousands of new donors while besting her by a 2-to-1 margin prior to Super Tuesday. With at least $3.5 million in 24 hours - nearly a quarter of her January haul - I'm sure the gap is increasing even more.

and if it is, can she spend it on her primary?

work that way if you don't accept public financing. Hillary can spend as much as she wants.

She can only spend $2,300 of that in the primaries -- the other half is locked to the General and she can't touch it.

Why the depth of the donor base is a concern -- they have already maxed out and she can't touch a bunch of the money yet.

Earlier on, her totals included both Primary and GE funds.

Many of her top end donors gave the full $4,600, but she can only spend $2,300 of their donations on the primary.

Can she use primary funds in the GE? I'm guessing not...

...she can use them in her next Senatorial primary.

that buy must have been astronomical.

That whole thing fell completely flat on me.

And she only pulled a draw on Super Tuesday. That had to hurt.

And that was almost exclusively viewers already in the Hillary camp.

That's over a month ago. If she had that much now, why would her staffers not be paid? If she had that much now, why would she have loaned personal funds to her campaign?

Honestly, my prediction is this will be neck and neck until the very end. I hope it means a dream ticket.

She can definitely use the time in Feb to get fundraisers going in Florida, CA and other cash-rich places where she does well.

But this means she's out fundraising while Obama is out giving the message.

Obama can still make a gaff, or her ops research folks might dig something up on him and release it, or a variety of other possibilities.

But if there are folks still sitting there thinking of her as the presumptive favorite nominee, they really are ignoring the signs. Plain and simple, Obama is in the driver's seat now.

Not saying she should drop out, just that she has a tough road ahead of her.

And if she wins out against these handicaps, then good for her. It will be a point in her favor for me. Much better than running as inevitable, it will show that she might be able to take on the GOP come November.

She's got a pretty good strategy in forcing Obama into more debates. And Obama can still screw this up. But I think its now Obama that has to screw up in order to lose. This is a FAR different posture than previously.

even if Obama wins most states he'll have to win by massive margins to come up with the 2025 to win. It still looks like a battle to the end.

If she loses those two, or perhaps even splits them, we might see Obama, with a string of victories get the party luminaries to start closing ranks around him.

After hearing about the loan, I don't think she will be the winner. She needed to win by a signficant margin and it did not happen.

Now that Obama has money and time to target individual states, Hillary needs a miracle to win this.

Hillary might just have to wait around for Obama to shoot himself in the foot. Look how quick the "Yeaaaaaaaaawwwww" Dean Scream changed things.

Obama is pretty damn polished as a politician.

Anything can happen, but I would say Obama has a 90% chance of taking this

Those are all delegate rich states, and winning Ohio carries a very important message for Democrats. Winning Texas should be doable with her Hispanic support. Hillary can focus her resourses if it comes to that. She has been holding onto a large lead in Ohio, and the Governor is in her camp there.

She cleans Texas and Ohio convincingly, she's still fully a contender. But she'll have to withstand a string of loses and cash flow shortages leading up to this...truly this will be hard for her.

He will pick up the next couple of states, which will get the momentum rolling in his favor. With less resources, Hillary will have an uphill battle.

... is considered to be of any great significance. What would be significant would be if a candidate were to perform extremely poorly in a "red" state (or even a "blue") indicating that they might not be able to count on even their own party members' votes in the general election.

And, it would also be significant if a candidate demonstrates the ability to attract independent and crossover voters in open primaries.

let's see how much she raises over the next few days.

Bottom line, Hillary needs to take a page from Huckabee and needs to generate votes without cash.

I expect to see a real shrinkage of her campaign staff soon. Probably she'll start REALLY calling in chips she has with the unions to try to make up the difference.

what I am saying is that we can't really say at this point, for certain, that she is going to stay low on funds until we see what type of aid comes her way in the next few days. She just sent up the Bat Signal. If nobody comes to save the day, her goose is cooked. On the other hand, she might have a decent fundraiser and exceed her expectations. The Clintons are all about controlling message and all that. If they come back in a few days with $8 million or something stupid like that, then the news stories will be all about the new comeback kid. With that being said, I really do think they are in trouble, but I am being cautious in my assessment at this point. I remember all the Republicans funneling millions into Bush's SC campaign in 2000 after McCain handed him his ass in NH. The Clintons are probably going to go bare knuckles in the next few weeks if they get any money to do it. After all, they are all about themselves first and foremost. If that means bringing down the party with them, I have no doubt they would do it.

In any event, I doubt anyone could argue with a straight face that Clinton will have the edge in money any time soon.

BTW I donated another $25 to Obama today two hours before they asked me to send in more money. Man I hope my wife doesn't find out...

Hillary might do well. But it is a pretty long downfield pass at this point.

but I still have this bad feeling. The Clinton machine is the most formidable Democratic political machine in decades.

She does not have to match Obama remotely dollar for dollar to do that. Hillary Clinton is not lacking in name recognition or star power. The media and the public will be following her campaign. Hillary Clinton is still a very viable Presidential candidate who won many important contests on Super Tuesday, so she can still raise money both from true believers and from some players who like to hedge their bets.

And raising the most money does not always result in winning the most votes. If so Howard Dean would have been our Presidential candidate in 2004. And John McCain would be out of the Republican race rather than winning it. Hillary Clinton has the support of two Democratic Governors in PA and Ohio. She has fervent support from Hispanics, and Texas has a large Democratic Hispanic voting block. Hillary Clinton can tap into support from many women who want to see her become President also.

If she can "hold out" till Texas and Ohio and win them, this will really propel her. This has to be her strategy.

And how much can she realistically do now that she is apparently falling behind in money? Is she going to have enough money to overcome the shitstorm of negative publicity if she falls behind Obama by a significant margin?

She just showed she can't match Obama's organization in smaller states, yet her entire campaign was based on inevitability. She ran thinking she was going to end this thing on ST as late as two weeks ago. How do they retool this quickly? Where is their upset victory coming from?

The point you made in your second paragraph is taken, but you have to consider that Clinton is playing against a very likable but relatively unknown Obama...and every single test this season has shown that when Obama gets exposure, his vote totals go up substantially. And the more money he has, the more exposure he has.

If Obama even loses one contest between now and March 4, than this in essence means that Obama has stumbled and Hillary is surging.

Will it work? I dunno, but I already heard the MSM adopt these talking points this evening.

and his advisors seem to know their shit.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080206/pl_bloomberg/ahvrn9haldqg

What better way to motivate your rabid supporters than to tell them that their current level of fanaticism is only enough to tie the Clinton machine?

Please excuse me but I am going to repeat parts of some other posts I've made today along with mostly new stuff. First some physics; a body in motion tends to stay in motion. Obama generated some very significant momentum after his South Carolina victory. His supporters and the media were ablaze over it. THEN Obama got the Ted Kennedy endorsement and the media totally, and I mean totally, lost it.

Ted Kennedy is a man who the MSM had taken a liking to scorning over the last decade. When he got noticed at all it was usually A) Because of his prior drinking B) Because of his weight or C) As a symbol of the past in politics - old discredited big government tax and spend liberalism. Please note that this isn't MY image of Senator Kennedy, but it was the one the MSM latched onto; the Old Lion with the emphasis on "Old". When Ted Kennedy endorsed Jon Kerry for President during the 2004 go around it barely registered as a blip. When RFK Jr endorsed Hillary Clinton for President this year I don't think it registered at all with the MSM. But when Ted went for Obama the media began to cover every part of the Kennedy Clan's every political utterence (with the exception of Bobby's children for the most part) as if they were covering Pope John Paul II's last papal trip to America.

The build up about Obama's surging momentum was relentless. MoveOn.org hastened to trot out a last minute endorsement process, rushing to get it started without even letting members watch the last debate first. The media was in 7th heaven, waxing poetic about Camelot and dragging up every comparison to anything Kennedy that they could find. There was a growing belief being fanned that Obama was about to surge past Clinton on Super Tuesday. Suddenly California was becoming too close to call, MA was tightening rapidly, NJ was about to slip away from Clinton, and so on. But what actually happened?

Hillary Clinton didn't just barely manage to beat the clock and get to the Super Tuesday finish line a split second before a surging Obama sprinted past her. No, for the most part she stopped his considerable momentum cold. Pretty impressive physics. And then she turned it around and was just starting to pull away from Obama at the finish. At least that is the way the Gallop Daily Tracking Polls show it:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/104200/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx

Do not underestimate Hillary or her appeal to millions of Americans who for the most part are not taking part in message board chatter like this. That is the first and most important point. Hillary's support may not be trendy but it is deep and real.

I don't know what strategy her team will settle on but whatever it is it will be potentially achievable. Perhaps Hillary will pick one contest between now and Texas and Ohio to attempt to really exceed expectations in, after making sure that expectations were not too high to begin with. I suspect that Clinton will work hard to build excitement for herself in places like Texas and Ohio. She will appeal to Ohio voters pride as Presidential King (and now Queen)makers. She will have the media anticipating that is where she will make her stand, and in so doing take much of the sting out of any losses that procede that big showdown, as merely victories for Obama that were totally expected and just preliminary events. She may work to draw a distinction between her and Obama's records in caucus vs primary states and play up her lead in popular votes cast in real elections.

I don't know exactly what her strategy will be but there will be one, and it will have the nation believing that this race won't be over before the contest moves on to the big delegate rich states again.

and then take advantage of it. Hillary is a GREAT fighter with her back against the wall. NH proved that.

It is not that I am underestimating Hillary Clinton right now...it is that I cannot see *what* strategy works for her at this point. I am trying to get a sense of what she could possibly do at this point to stem the tide.

Remember who she has working for her, first of all. Mark Penn and Terry MacAullife are not exactly the wonder twin political advisors they are made out to be.

And yes, Bill is a wonderful tactician, but he lets his emotional side out too much and it clouds his judgment at times. I think he is turning this into a highly personal confrontation between him and Obama, because he sees Obama as potentially much more than he ever could have been and it pisses him off.

And Dick Morris and George Stephanopolous are not coming back to save anyone's ass, either.

So the brain trust (and I use that term loosely) that went up against Obama with a lead of 20 points and pissed it away is now expected to completely retool in the midst of losing multiple contests over the next three weeks. And now they are apparently financially strained. Have these fat-cats ever gone lean and mean?

I doubt anyone can deny that the more exposure Obama gets, the better he does. How do you stop that when you don't have the resources to compete? How do you overcome the fact that your candidate has negatives over 45% and close to 100% name recognition?

How do you (not "you" specifically of course) spin the fact that Obama closed 10-15 points in several ST states in a *week*?

And I have seen those Gallup numbers posted here several times today. I would caution against anyone looking at that one day of data and expecting to see a trend...especially since no data is out post ST yet. 3 days is a trend, and people like to get behind a winner.

I have no doubt that she will have a strategy. I sincerely doubt that she will have one that works...unless she brings in someone with a brain and a fucking clue.

on edit

Just wanted to add something here. How would you like to be weighing the following options:

Option 1: You advise Hillary to basically sit out until OH and TX and watch Obama build momentum and delegates. You draw a line in the sand on March 4th, and if you fail there against a candidate with huge momentum and more money, you are finished. This is a bad choice.

Option 2: You advise Hillary to make a play into one or two of the upcoming states that Obama is likely to win. You divert precious resources away from the contests next month that you might win versus a candidate that has the money to play everywhere at full blast. By playing in states you might still lose handily, you run the risk of getting your ass handed to you on March 4th. This is also a bad choice.

Ouch.

Get the MSM to set expectations that Obama will sweep all the states in February. Play up the expectations game by playing "wounded duck" and doing the woe is me thing. Then do WAY better in a state like Wisconsin or Virgina than the expectations indicated. If perchance she wins, then the MSM will start talking about an Obama bubble. That could easily carry her through till March 4.

This is just one idea - I'm sure the Hillary folks can think of lots better ones.

That's a dynamic I never foresaw, myself.

I contributed $100 of that. :)


I really wish the Clinton campaign had an online tracking thing too...

... once you appear wounded, as indicated by the cash shortages and backing off in some states, supporters become less willing to send money into a campaign that may be ending soon.

Her margins were way too narrow for her to claim anything but a pyrrhic victory. She spent like mad but didn't get the slamdunk she paid for. The fact that Obama kept it as close as he did says a lot for what kind of organization he was able to assemble.

It doesn't seem that way. :shrug:

She may have won the delegate count, but I'd hardly call it a victory. She should've beaten Obama like a gong.

Unless N.M. was finally called, and she cleaned up there (she didn't) Obama won the delegate count by (4 now?).

I've been in self-imposed media isolation all day because I'm sick of reading the various spin about the campaigns. Last I heard, Hillary had the delegate lead.

/ scurries off to check CNN

ON EDIT: CNN says Hillary got 580, Barrack got 571.

MSNBC and many others have already determined that Obama wins by at least 4. CNN is waiting for actuals from the states - meaning the states finalize their own totals - instead of just looking at the numbers themselves.

A lot of those numbers are probably a little soft, until they get to the CD-level conventions, I would guess.

Very intersting.

Outside of the reality, the question concerns the expectations game. She had set them earlier that she would slam Obama out of the ballpark today. Worse, she spent as if this would occur. She did blunt the momentum, and by all "real" accounts, tied Obama (she slightly won the popular vote, Obama slightly won the delegates). She just needed more.

Now the near-term Calendar is her enemy.

She's obviously not down and out, but it's looking that soon they'll be checking the campaign's organ donor card. The results of yesterday, was a devastating blow to her chances. Everyone knows that the delegates were basically going to split yesterday, so it was all about perception; the fact that Obama won more states (including some Clinton had banked on wrapping up, like CT. and MO.) I think is going to dry up her fund raising even more so.

That said, I bet she can still pull in enough cash to get by. She will be overwhelmed in spending though.

not surprised by this at all

She'll do a "reorganization" which will in practice mean a downsizing.

Makes me happy to see some actual discussions, ey? :)

that broaden my horizons, as it were.

There are certainly some very knowledgeable and thoughtful folks here on DU.

Again, thanks! :hi:

and he made the announcment BEFORE Super Tuesday - so that said a lot to people in this state about the fact that he wants to invest time here regardless of how things turned out on Tuesday.

We couldn't figure out why Hillary wasn't also coming here.. we realize we're only worth 25 delegates and in the scheme of things that's not many - but after Tuesday, those 25 could actually come down to being worth something.

Now we're understanding why she's not coming.. she can't afford it or ads on TV like Obama is currently doing. She really did spend it all up to Super Tuesday.... and I do think Obama is going to win Nebraska pretty easily this weekend.

This is the short of it. Hillary has to pick her battles now. She has to go where she can either avert a 60% vote return or potentially win.

People mock her "ROI" statement but at this point she has to consider it. She had her powerhouse states Tuesday, and they didn't knock Obama out (for that matter, they showed weaknesses even Obamaphiles like me didn't expect). Did you see how strongly Obama won KS and ND?

Wisconsin was where Bill sealed his victory in '92 (I know cuz I was campaigning against them). Hillary is going to pull out all the stops going forward. Expect lots of lies and lots of underhanded tactics from here on in.

We ain't seen nuthin yet.

i'm sure her supporters are energized to donate, dont u think...?

seems her bigger issues. You can give a mechanic all the tools in the world but if he doesn't have the agility, skill and knowledge to fix what needs fixing he will be useless