Up-to-date grand total of current Electoral College by the state polls

I posted earlier about a freeper who maintains a website (http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/) which tracks state by state presidential polls. According to his site, Kerry is solid on 181 electoral votes, Bush on 227. 130 are up for grabs. Kerry is ahead in current polls in all his solid states, Bush in his. However, Kerry is currently ahead in the polls in all battleground states except WV (were there is no polling data avalible), NV were Bush is ahead 1%, and NJ were Bush is ahead more in a poll taken before the national polls headed our way after the Iowa caucuses. Take out those three from the 130 battle ground votes, and you have 105 votes, all with Kerry currently ahead. They include ALL Gore states except NJ (NJ will go dem, there is no question about this), in addition to FL, NH, and AZ, all Bush 2000 states. Add this all onto the Kerry states, all of which also have Kerry ahead, and you get a grand total of 286, with 270 needed to win. If the election were held today, the popular vote would be a tie, and Kerry would win the electoral college. Kerry wins the presidency and Bush is humiliated, the GOP destroyed and demoralized, and it is over.

now we all need to work our asses off to make it fact.

It's going to be a long fight, but I do believe Kerry won't back down easy and will give them hell.

but polls don't really mean anything 8 months before the election. They are reassuring, yes, but it doesn't we will win. We have a lot of work cut out for us.

I remember in 88 when Sr. ran and everyone said he was gonna get crushed by the Democratic nominee. Lo and behold we lost. Polls mean squat in March.

:(

Undecideds break for the challenger, usually by 2:1 or 3:1 ratios. So, for example, a 45/45/10 or 45/45/3/7 split is probably to be counted a narrow Kerry win.

I seem to keep pointing out that almost all national polls I see these days, when read with the 2:1 split in mind, infers an electorate that in reality is ~51% D, ~46% R, 3% Nader or Green.

IMHO, our side could fairly easily lose Iowa, Wisconsin, and perhaps Minnesota though. And yet possibly win anyway.

rethug lean is ridiculous. I also wouldn't be putting Ohio, Arizona, or Nevada in the lean chimp column either, they are tossups. PA leans Democrat. A wonder which poll he used where chimp is ahead, all polls I've seen have Kerry in the lead. On the other side, I don't think Florida leans Dem. I'm sure jebby has taken care of that one and NH should go blue in November. WV is tossup, but we ought to take it as well.

It being a red leaner is friggin' absurd. Governor Jim McGreevey, almost all Dem government, and we're voting for BUSH? Hahahah, not too friggin' likely.

Later.

RJS