Hillary has little to no apparent presence in the next few states

This thread inspired me to do some research
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4450207&mesg_id=4450207

Hillary apparently doesn't have offices in Virginia, and Maryland.

Also, Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, and Washington DC aren't listed as "states" on her website.

Obama has offices in Virginia (6), Maryland (7), Washington (3), Louisiana (1), Maine (1),

Obama doesn't have offices in Nebraska, and Washington DC.

This means that Obama likely has the structure to play on the ground in Virginia, Maryland, Washington, and possibly Louisiana and Maine. Hillary apparently has nothing. Also, she probably has less than nothing in the states that aren't listed on her website (Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Maine). Something to think about.

EDIT: I think this also shows that Hillary didn't expect the race to go past Super Tuesday.

Her inability to get fundraising from her supporters may hurt her at the end of the day. Due to Obama's great internet fundraising, he already has boots on the ground in those states.

It's shortsightedness. It's pretty clear that she thought it'd be over by now.

You would sure hope so...

:yourock:

What can I say, I am a loser. :)

I've only been here for a month or so. This place is addicting!

I got 1000 posts in my first year at DU from 2003-2004. I have 28000 now. I went over 25K like 3 months ago. I post a ton durning campaign season. You're a perfectly normal DUer.

It could have been BEFORE SC. Rumor has it...she donated $5 million for LAST month. So she had to do that early...which would have been before SC or around that time.

... and right up to a Tuesday night in Iowa, immediately after which we saw a change in tactics, with the politics getting dirtier. South Carolina was the next body blow, and Super Tuesday has them on the ropes -- though not out.

If she had lost CA she would have been out of the race yesterday.

Thus the 5 million "loan" self-funding for advertising in big Super Tues states.

I think she generally relies on the party establishment for groundwork where she has their support.

Big-money donors for Clinton gave early.

Clinton will be forced to take more loans to stay competitive.

...have a fight from anyone--at all--in any state.

She's campaigned from the start, as if she was going to be the nominee.

Her campaign was so sure they were going to win Iowa. They had the endorsement
of the Des Moines Register and the unions.

They ran a terrible, half-assed campaign here. The Clintons thought they could
rely on connections and the usual political apparatus, and Iowans went around all
of that and voted for Obama and Edwards--because they ran impressive, grassroots
campaigns and they really reached out to voters, answered their questions and met
with small groups of people.

Hillary had big press events. She never answered questions in Iowa.

When Obama moved up in the Iowa polls, we find one of her Iowa political directors
sending anti-Obama emails about him being a radical Muslim. He was fired. Shortly
after, so was one of her senior staffers for talking about Obama's drug use, and then
Bob Kerrey comes out of the woodwork--right on cue--to endorse Hillary and badmouth "Barack
Hussein Obama". No one could believe Kerrey did that. I think he regretted it and he
apologized.

I'm sorry, but I think they've been winging it since they lost in Iowa. They believed
in their "inevitability" and they didn't plan to run a grassroots campaign. They banked
on their connections and endorsements and on the people who owed them political favors.

They have no "plan b" and it's showing.

Where you have a tight organizational structure of "ward bosses" and "precinct captains" to maintain discipline (no breaking of ranks for any outsider candidates), as well as patronage to reward supporters.

The problem is that this sort of system relies upon discipline and loyalty. Loyalty comes when you know that someone has and will stand by you, so it is no surprise that women are going for her overwhelmingly. She's proved herself with her work on behalf of FMLA and women's issues. Females make up somewhere between 51-56% of primary voters. So this style of campaign serves her well in populous states like NY and California. It also bodes well for Ohio and Texas.

But Obama is using a hybrid strategy of the Chicago machine (he does have a Daley on staff, after all) and Dean's strategy. Chicago politics says use the organization to get a high turnout in the cities and win the state by a slim margin with the high voter turnout in metro areas overwhelming the rest of the state. Obama won this way in Missouri; JFK won Illinois in 1960 by 9,000 votes (over 450,000 votes coming from Cook County). So, this is how Obama can win those bellwether/swing states. He is combining this with Dean's 50-state strategy: putting people on the ground, buying ads, organizing volunteers, and sending mailers to be competitive in every state. There were only two Feb. 5th states that Obama failed to get at least 40% of the popular vote in: Oklahoma (31%) and Arkansas (27%). On the other hand, Hillary failed ot get at least 40% of the popular vote in nine states: Alaska (25%), Colorado (32%), Georgia (31%), Idaho (17%), Illinois (33%), Kansas (26%), Minnesota (32%), North Dakota (37%), and Utah (39%).

It should be noted that many of the states Obama won were caucus states. But he still won there by having a stronger presence and people on the ground. Additionally, he's adopted Dean's strategy of netroots fundraising, which is quite literally bringing him millions of dollars.

It's my own belief that Obama's campaign strategy would win the general election and provide a strong boost to increasing the Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. From a purely strategic political perspective, Obama really does look like a winner.

waited this long to pay attention.

Clinton will continue to sink.

"We didn't even campaign in the state, and we got 30%!!!!"

...the more I am convinced that Hillary is giving up.

I know that people will attack me for saying that, but there are so many
bad omens hanging in the air for her campaign.

You're right...she has no presence in the states that are voting this Saturday, Sunday and the following
Tuesday. She might be doing a few speeches here and there, in those states, but there is no ground game
or effort to organize volunteers in those states. It's as if she's skipping those first states (LA, NE, WA, ME).

Also, Obama is favored in all of the Tuesday states, except for Maryland, and that is a draw right now. If he
also takes VA, MD, DC---we're looking at an Obama blowout of epic proportions from this Saturday on into next
Tuesday!

:wow:

People were wondering why Clinton decided NOW to disclose that she gave $5 million to her own campaign, and to release
the embarrassing fact that most of her staff is working for nothing.

I think all of this is the answer. She has to ask for the money now, because after Obama wins handily in these
states on Saturday (where she appears to be making minimal efforts) and again on Tuesday--he will have the momentum
and no money will be coming in to her.

She's gotta ask for it now--before the shit storm comes in the next 5 days.

Wow, I honestly think Clinton is done. Super Tuesday was her big shot. Two of the ST states were states that she
could claim as her "home"--Arkansas and New York. And she tied in delegates and Obama won more states.

This next round of states, Obama has the advantage.

I'm sorry guys...but it looks like we're probably looking at the end of the Hillary campaign.

...they've got something big planned.

...a scandal they've been holding onto....

You know...

"In case of campaign emergency, break glass"


Be prepared, guys... it's coming. It won't even necessarily be true... but we'll have to spend time fighting it.


That's ok... rather have Hillary vetting crap now than later in the election.

Growing suspicions about the true source of that $5 mil she loaned her campaign:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4442259

She knows that when she shows her vulnerability, her female support base rallies around her.

It's not a bad notion/strategy. But it is dangerous because she could send the message that she is too far behind.

So are we really going to have to go forward with a half-African born of a Muslim father, with a last name almost like that of Mastermind of Nine Eleven, and a middle name exactly like that of the dictator we only recently hung? Don't misunderstand me, I'll be for him if he's our nominee, but it'll be a leap into the dark, that's for sure. I hope you Obamatrons know what you're doing! :hi:

You are off your rocker. A racist screed with a 9/11 interjection. Holy fuck.

The Dem Party would no longer be seen as the "party of blacks". I still can't believe I read something like that on DU, and the post was allowed to stand. Needless to say, my "IGNORE" list just keeps growing.

But her campaign has been mismanaged from the start and it is beginning to hurt her.

..but her strategy going forward is abysmal.

She's focusing on TX and OH--which don't vote until March.

There are ten states that she appears to be ignoring.

It's the Rudy strategy. Bank on a win in the distant future, and hope
that you're relevant when that state rolls around---in more than a month!

Yowza.

She'll have no momentum, and Obama will have it all--going into those
states. He'll probably take 9 of the next 10 states.

This is earth shattering.

She was looking for the knockout punch.

opening 10 offices in Texas as we speak. :)

Apparently, they thought it would all be over by super Tues. and spent the money they had, accordingly.

Didn't they know about planning for a rainy day?

Guess what? I just looked outside.

It's raining.

The Clintons will do anything to get back into power and I think the having to borrow 5mil is a ruse to stop the Obama supporters from donating and to help garner sympathy to get her supporters to pitch in. Don't buy into the Clintons' ruse on this.

Obama's had ads running here for weeks. Even if this is all some kind of ploy on her part, you'd think she'd at least be running some ads just to keep the pot boiling.

There's no way she doesn't have a plan. No way.

I they didn't have plans for those states, they certainly do now.


Or maybe there's a bigger picture they see, and are playing.


Or about to play.


They aren't without a gameplan. Of that I am sure.

It's like Bush securing the museum in Baghdad after the looting has started.

but, like with Rudy, the momentum Obama builds *IF* he wins most/all of the intervening states, in conjunction with a LOT of positive, FREE press, may blast through whatever walls she's putting up in TX, OH & PA.

Re: "Hillary didn't expect race to go past Super Tues... agreed. The whole front-loading schedule was designed by MacAuliffe back in 2004 to give the edge to the monied, well-known DLC candidates, and end the race quickly.


edit: p.s. And another piece in the 9iu11iani redux falls into place...

"(Hillary's) advisors/aides are working without pay for Feb"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4444649&mesg_id=4444649

Though Hillary is making visits to VA and WA.

His problem was, the more people met him, the less they liked him.

Hillary may just be limited due to money issues; and that would suck. I'd rather it didn't end because of a lack of money. But that's the reason just about every campaign ends.

She's in some deep trouble. Her website only lists about 20+ states where she's campaigning, & most of those were Super Tuesday states. There's no site at all for Ne., N. Dakota, Wash. But I couldn't believe this - there's no office in Texas or Ohio either, states which she needs to pull out a win. Apparantly no operation exists in these states at all? The worst part is that there's no way to participate if you aren't in one of the listed states. For example, North Carolina has a primary in May - the state isn't listed on her website, and there's no blog for NC people to get together & organize or volunteer. So even if NC people wanted to canvass or organize, they can't (at least not through the campaign). In contrast, Obama has a site for all 50 states, and the NC site is already full of meetings of various local grass-roots groups to GOTV for Obama. It really looks like her campaign might be out of gas.

It's been like that for weeks now. I guess it was an early tip-off of the Clintons' money issues.

Please don't do this again. It isn't over till the fat lady sings. We have a longtime to go! The worse thing that could happen now is people get complacent. We need to keep going full bore till DNC and if we win the nomimantion it's full bore till November!! DO NOT LET UP!!

I know that Romney had all the ground game and ads in the world in IA and still lost.

GOBAMA