Thinking Ahead: What States Could Clinton, or Obama Carry that Kerry didn't?

Time to think realistically. Polls show a very close match-up with McCain whoever the nominee is...

Obamabots and Hillshrills tell me-- where does your candidate breakthrough where Kerry failed? It's not time for magical thinking... instead, let's keep it real given the parameters of a close race.

i.e. it's a sarcastic comment on the state of GDP...

you hadn't written it in such a contemptuous and insulting ways. It's worth discussing. I've thought about it. But your OP uses namecalling right off the bat, so I won't be bothered. Try editing out the bullshit.

I won't keep it a secret that I support Hillary. However, there are too many people here in GDP taking it way too far on both sides. If it bothers you, it's probably because it hits a little too close to home.

It's that simple. I've said repeatedly that both can win against McCain. I've based that on actual data, facts and some intangibles that are less easy to measure. And sorry, cupcake, the reason it bothers me is because it simple adds to the massive amount of stupid bullshit here. I'm not fond of stupid and tacky.

or it will get very ugly indeed.

That's the big one! Clinton could take it easily. She has been endorsed by the governor, lt. governor and a lot of other state reps.

Would she have a shot: YES! ... but Extremely tight.

I don't know but I think a lot of blue states would be comfortably blue with Obama, the southwest is out with McCain I think, so that means we go fight for the south. Try and take VA, the Carolinas and Georgia. I would love to have a bunch of Democrats infiltrate the south and organize an infectious campaign based on unity and new beginnings. I think it would be great and the opportunity won't come again for a very long time.

Iowa, I think, would be the easier pickings of the two. VA would be WAY too close.

The only conceivable state I could see Hillary carrying that Kerry didn't is Arkansas. But at the same time, she would lose Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and maybe Iowa and Wisconsin. She's not very well liked in the midwest and if African-Americans don't turn out in large numbers, she can kiss a lot of states goodbye.

Obama can carry Kerry states. I think he can also win in Ohio and Virginia. He'll have a good chance in Georgia. At least he would force the McCain to defend it. I also think Obama is the only one who could carry Missouri.

All three were swing states last time. A Midwestern candidate who can boost African-American turnout in OH and MO could win both. Any two of those three guarantees victory.

candidate per se. He is an urban, democratic candidate. Without support from the big cities in IL, bastions of liberalism in an otherwise rural farm state, I doubt he would have won his seat. Granted he is very popular there but outside the major metropolitan areas, IL is more like Kansas than most people realize. I beleive BOH could win IA, MO and OH but is is not because he is "midwestern".

Peace

parts of Illinois that's more like Kansas (where Obama was born). He's very popular all over the state and did well even in the primary. Actually, Southern Illinois is half Midwestern and half Southern in character. He's very popular there too.

Obama never had the problem of coming off as too Chicago like a lot of other candidates from the city do. He learned how to campaign in rural areas. Of course, there are a lot of big cities in the Midwest so I'm not sure how that makes him unlike a Midwesterner?

Obama would likely carry several red states, win the popular vote and lose the electoral college.

Because McCain is the candidate, the above 3 states are in play versus Obama.

as goes Ohio, so goes the nation

always true, no matter how it happens

OH failed Kerry (or was stolen depending on your view).

and the same at South High School in 2006

I know all about what happened election days and during the recount year of 2004 (the last person in line at 7:30 voted at 1:10 AM...nearly 6 hours after the polls closed)

You can Google my DU name combined with the word election and understand where I have been


I did say in my original post...

As Ohio goes, so goes the nation...no matter HOW it happens...and that means if it was stolen or however.

IMO in each year it was massive voter suppression.

We have a new SOS now...no one will be "flying in" election day to meet with Ken Blackwell again.

But oh, we will have to be vigilant again in November

See what I was up against at the last place I was at in 2006......the worst was a lady who was 90+ years old, and had voted at the same place her entire life that she was allowed to vote, had lived in the same house, put on her Sunday best clothes, was driven to the polls, and was missing from the poll books. Do you know how hard it was for me, as a Caucasian person, to tell this wonderful, elegant and hopeful African American woman what I thought had happened? It was sickening (still makes my stomach clench) because I had a pretty good idea EXACTLY what happened to her and about 40 some other folks names.

Anyway, here is part of what I dealt with in 2006: (My hubby had brought me food and walks past in the background about 3/2 of the way through..bless him...this was the high school HE went to as well)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBxncUGt114

I will start: McCain could possibly cause trouble in PA, NH and ME.

I think that was the state that was a lot closer than I would have ever guessed. McCain's environmental record, education, and all those kinds of social issues could make him appealing to some moderate people. I kind of think with McCain it might come down to Iraq and foreign policy and which way the country decides it wants to go, war or diplomacy. Especially with illegal immigration more or less off the table. I hope the country rejects 100 years of war, but you never know.

especially with Loserman campaigning for him. CT will be tough to keep in the Dem column.

Dukakis was a shoo in against Bush the elder in 1988, an overwhelming faovorite until the actual campaign started and they really began to mix it up.

:woohoo:

Kerry NEVER had a chance here.

hard to believe on the surface.

Awareness and efforts to eliminate dirty tricks and vote suppression, efforts to build a strong grassroots movement, Howard Dean is not Terry McAwful.

I think in the General election that given jr ftacturepoint in the GOP and with McCain at the top of the ticket. the fundies would stay home if the opponent was Obama. But if it was Hillary they would come out in droves.

I do no think he has a chance anywhere in the South (I don not consider Florida as part of the South) except SC.

Its a nit of a Perfect storm and a little tricky because he simply cannot go in to the state and hold AA-focused rallies....but given the demographices, give the fractures in the GOP and given the the states hisory. I think he could pulla win there.

Colorado as well along with West Virginia. Virginia is possible. Ohio is likely, Florida is very possible. Iowa is winnable and Misouri also. Hillary could have won Arizona but that will be tough now againt McCain

Obama could carry Florida with Bob Graham on the ticket.

Both ought to able to carry Ohio.