Kerry leads Bush 49-44 in West Virgina!!!

http://www.wvgazette.com/polls/?qid=campvote&aid=-1
Polls also show Kerry ahead in AZ, NH, and FL. If the election were held today, Kerry would win not only the popular vote but the electoral college.

:bounce:

There are a number of scenarioes that don't include WVA as a win. In fact, using just one example, a Dem would need only to win Florida and hold the rest of the states Gore won in 2000 (I know Gore really won FL but this is for the sake of argument) or you could plug in Ohio for Florida.

The Edwards site had a map you could play with to go through different scenarios. If it's still up it's worth a look.

time back in 2000. We lost it by 6.32 percent and the Nader vote was 1.65.

Things have changed. The economy is worse and, so far, guns have been pretty much a dead issue. Hope it stays a dead issue.

Having a Vietnam vet head the ticket helps in WV. Bigtime. Even the Republican ones will at least have to look at John Kerry...they are working class people, too, for the most part.

John Kennedy came here, and took WV by storm. Being a Roman Catholic was considered a big deal, back then. I think Kerry will do well here, if he comes.
He should come and hang out in VFW and Legion Halls, you know, they are often the main social centers in small towns. WV has got a LOT of vets. The Silver Star means a lot here.

And we've been outsourcing jobs for 50 years. Healthcare is an issue for a lot of people. Threats to cut Social Security, due to GOP deficits should be a winner here. You know, all the crap Bush has been doing.

Oh, and he needs to somehow get a picture taken with a rifle in his hands...they keep them at the Legion halls, I think.

If so, I'm thinking that a well-publicized photo op of Byrd and Kerry hunting together (I've heard Kerry hunts and can only assume that Byrd does...) somewhere in WVA this fall would be a great campaign move...

-SM

Byrd was not a fan of Gore's and only endorsed him day's before the election. Too late to help him.

PS--Byrd has a 73% approval rating in WV.

I'll e-mail him and try to find out what is up. I know Byrd hates the nondemocratic way Congress is being run, and largely blames Bush. Might as well mail Rockefeller too.

I think this time, Byrd would endorse anyone shy of Satan, to get rid of George Bush.

I have never seen him rail against ANYONE the way he does Bush.

Kerry has to make very clear, during his convention acceptance speech and elsewere, that he is NOT going to take away guns from law abiding people.

that's exactly the point I was trying to make. I agree...and WV is where such a statement should be made. There are no doubt better ways of doing it though, than I have suggested.

But yeah, I'd like to hear it in the convention speech, and even take most, or all gun control language out of the platform.

Rural America has had about enough of gun control...there seems to be no end to it. Especially after 911 and Patriot, it doesn't fit the national mood, IMO.

No, I just thought the image of Kerry with a rifle in his hands, would convey that he was NOT an antigun nut. That, plus the video of him walking (patrolling?) in Vietnam with a rifle, should just about defuse the whole issue.

Besides, when the 'assault weapons' they are talking about reach our shores, they are semi-automatic anyway. They are NOT machine guns. I think it's a nonissue. And a net vote nongetter.

and keep the rest of the Gore states, and he's in.

Or Nevada.

Or maybe even Arkansas. I've been told a lot of folks up in the Northwest part of the state, prime bu$h territory (60-40% in 2000), aren't too happy about their boy. Lots of retired folks up there are getting nervous about their Social Security, lots of mothers are getting worried about their sons getting shipped off to Iraq or some other hellhole.

the Gore states are only worth 260EVs because of census re-apportionment. We need ten more EVs.

WV and NH is ours this time.

Thanks for the correction.

but we shouldn't!

W.Va. should always be solidly pro Dem.: strong unions, in need of good jobs, & it's a border state, not like solid South.

just to tell you non-conservative it is.

WV is pissed off, big time, at Bush on his relaxation of the Clean Water Act in order to allow miners to pollute streams and valleys. The main reason that WV went red in 2000 was guns. I personally think it was more of an anomaly than a trend.

As far as I can tell, it is completely unscientific, just like all online polls. Don't get too excited yet.