WaPo's Paul Kane: Superdelegates (Dem insiders) will decide who runs for prez

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/02/07/the_democratic_math.html

The Washington Post's Paul Kane: "We've done a bad job of explaining this, but it is now basically mathematically impossible for either Clinton or Obama to win the nomination through the regular voting process (meaning the super-delegates decide this one, baby!).

"Here's the math. There are 3,253 pledged delegates, those doled out based on actual voting in primaries and caucuses. And you need 2,025 to win the nomination. To date, about 55% of those 3,253 delegates have been pledged in the voting process -- with Clinton and Obamb roughly splitting them at about 900 delegates a piece. That means there are now only about 1,400 delegates left up for grabs in the remaining states and territories voting.

"So, do the math. If they both have about 900 pledged delegates so far, they need to win more than 1,100 of the remaining 1,400 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting.

"Ain't gonna happen, barring a stunning scandal or some new crazy revelation. So, they'll keep fighting this thing out, each accumulating their chunk of delegates, one of them holding a slight edge and both finishing the voting process with 1,600 or so delegates. And then the super delegates decide this thing. That's the math."

The problem is Obama supporters won't support Hillary and Hillary supporters won't support Obama. You're dividing the party with this bullshit and name calling. How about everyone start talking about issue for a change, is there an issue shortage of which I'm not aware? Number of votes cast in Dem primaries has been running about 2-1 over Repubs. Many of those votes were independents and moderate Repubs and they are being alienated by this infighting. It's not about Obama and it's not about Hillary. It's about us. Try to stay focused

To win out sans superdelegates, one of the candidates would have to win around 80% of the rest of the pledged delegates. Can you picture either candidate pulling an 80-20 average in ALL of the remaining primaries? Unless the proverbial "dead girl or a live boy" scenario hits, it is statistically improbable that this is can be wrapped up before the convention.

Grrrrr!!! Only our leadership can take a seemingly unloseable election and lose it...

By punishing Michigan and Florida so severely ( The republicans only punished theres with a 50% penalty).. We have sent up a situation almost GUARANTEED to divide the party... IF the nomination has to be decided by the super delegates.. Sigh.. Good Night Irene!!! The only way left to unite the party is with a Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton ticket.. with the one on top being who ever has the most NON-super delegates at the end of the primary season.. Unless of course you can get Gore to step in..

Link is for many options too.

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

there's about 250 for her and 150 for him, give or take 30

I personally feel that most superdelegates will vote their constituencies first, because that is their best interest.

Another superdelegate in Maine has promised to take the results into consideration.

I've found that the DNC members here are easy to talk with and understand how important it is to respect the vote of the state. If you have questions, I urge you to check your party's website and contact your DNC members directly.

Here's a proposal to nullify the super-delegate king-making authority -
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4475648&mesg_id=4475648

If we have one candidate getting 10 and the other 9 out of a potentional 20 delegates, how does the superdelegate vote? for the candidate w/ 10?

It's a plan but it's not going to make anyone more comfortable. I really think Dean and the DNC need to figure out a solution to FL (and possibly MI).

I eagerly await your response.

If Obama and Hillary are in a dead heat there is a certainity that both are equally likable by the party (disputes about electablity aside). Thus it only makes sense for the superdelegates to chose the one with the most votes.

The total is

Clinton 1236

obama 1010

Dont say that there not gonna count. Cuz they will seat them so the party wont split down the seams.

if they ARE seated. Double true for MI.