Primary calendar and Scratch-pad fun

This is Pledged Delegates only, no Supers. Not a prediction as such. For amusement, I went through the primary calendar making somewhat informed guesses, by still guesses, week-by-week, and running a tally. I favored Obama for the most part, assuming blow-outs in places like Oregon and Mississippi, caucuses in general, midwest and mountain west, etc., and presumed healthy, but not crushing Clinton wins in the big three.

I came up with Obama: 1728 / Clinton: 1691, which I'm calling even. (God only knows what my personal margin of error is! I only did this once and didn't double check math or anything.)

If the starting totals of 986-924 don't include today, then Obama would have the guesstimate lead.

Just scratch-pad stuff, but it's fun. Give it a try.

Here's a Good Primary Calendar:
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/democraticprimaries/index.html
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As of Today:
Obama: 986
Clinton: 924


Tuesday, February 12 (237)
District of Columbia Primary 37 delegates
Maryland Primary 99 delegates
Virginia Primary 101 delegates

Obama: 1136
Clinton: 1011

Tuesday, February 19 (121)
Hawaii Caucus 29 delegates
Wisconsin Primary 92 delegates

Obama: 1206
Clinton: 1062

Tuesday, March 4 (444)
Ohio Primary 161 delegates
Texas Primary 228 delegates
Rhode Island Primary 32 delegates
Vermont Primary 23 delegates

Obama: 1390
Clinton: 1322

Saturday, March 8
Wyoming Caucus 18 delegates

Obama: 1403
Clinton: 1327

Tuesday, March 11
Mississippi Primary 40 delegates

Obama: 1431
Clinton: 1339

Tuesday, April 22
Pennsylvania Primary 188 delegates

Obama: 1478
Clinton: 1440

Saturday, May 3
Guam Other 9 delegates

Obama: 1483
Clinton: 1444

Tuesday, May 6 (218)
Indiana Primary 84 delegates
North Carolina Primary 134 delegates

Obama: 1592
Clinton: 1553

Tuesday, May 13
West Virginia Primary 39 delegates

Obama: 1608
Clinton: 1576

Tuesday, May 20 (125)
Kentucky Primary 60 delegates
Oregon Primary 65 delegates

Obama: 1673
Clinton: 1636

Tuesday, June 3 (47)
Montana Primary 24 delegates
South Dakota Primary 23 delegates

Obama: 1708
Clinton: 1654

Saturday, June 7
Puerto Rico Caucus 63 delegates

Obama: 1728
Clinton: 1691


Here's a Good Primary Calendar:
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/democraticprimaries/index.html

sure what some of the states are!

Indiana? lots of AA vote in Gary and Indianapolis... my first insinct is "Indiana is good for Hillary" but then you think about it, and in a Dem Primary, maybe not.

North Carolina? Sounds like a good state for Barack, but Gore carried NC in '88 while Jackson won SC and VA. (Gore was a very moderate Dem in '88)

I disagree on the March 4 numbers. You say Clinton wins the day 280-164. Texas and Ohio combined are just a smidge bigger than California. Her margin in California was just shy of 10%, resulting in a 44 delegate advantage (207-163). I seriously seriously doubt she'll poll that well in Texas -- and remember 3/4 of the Texas vote is, that's right, caucus. But for the sake of argument, I'll give her an equal "huge" win in both Texas and Ohio. Proportionally, even assuming her big wins in Texas and Ohio, she gets 218 and Obama gets 171. There are only 55 left in Vermont and Rhode Island. If she gets a split there she has kicked ass. I'll give her the extra, so 28-27 HRC. Totals = Hillary:246, Barack:198. 34 delegate swap, for a 68 delegate "move." Difference? Obama: 1742, Clinton: 1677.

Now, or some realism. Texas is more like a tie to a 5% HRC win. I will not fathom a guess on Ohio. From others here, I have heard Barack is strong in Vermont. I will give Rhode Island to HRC, but not by much. I think you end up with a realistic best case delegte split for HRC at 230 - 214. Another 16 delegate swap, for another 32 delegate move. New results: Obama:1758, Clinton:1661.

I gave Vermont to Obama Strong, split RI and thought I was doing 58% of delegates in OH and TX, which is strong, but you can see I gave Obama massive delegate advantages all over the place elsewhere. (If my math is wrong on that date, then it's wrong.)

In general, you'll see an over-generosity toward the Obama ledger in many places.

That said, I wouldn't doubt it is I misplaced a full 100 somewhere, adding in my head as I went along.

Not a prognostication, just an encouragement to others to play with it... it's interesting making assumptions about states that haven't had a single published poll.

I was thinking 260-184, but added it as 280-164,
so a 40 point swing there in Obama's favor.

You can probably find comparable errors going the other way, but probably not as large.

Thanks for posting

And, of course, I was not predicting meta changes in the race, like momentum.