Josh Marshall says "WTF?" (Washington pug primary result was Fixed)

As you know, here at TPM we've been really curious what happened up in the Republican caucus in Washington state. For probably the first time in all the primaries and elections I've ever watched, the folks running the election decided to stop counting the votes with 13% of the votes uncounted. And this wasn't a 70-30 blow out, but a tight race where the two top vote getters were separated by less than 2% of the vote. Then this morning, state party chair Luke Esser decided to declare McCain the winner.

Now, when we were watching this last night and I was trying to examine the tea leaves this morning, I was assuming they'd come forward with some story that there was some hang up with the votes or some mechanical issue. Whether it would be true is another matter. But you'd think you'd at least come up with a good story.

But state party chair Luke Esser said that he just thought it was the right thing to do. According to Esser, sometime overnight Esser did some sort of back of the envelope statistical analysis of the the margin of McCain's lead (1.8%) and the number votes left uncounted (13%) and decided that Huckabee didn't have a chance and he'd shut the thing down and declare McCain the winner.

So was that a good idea? Here's Esser's rationale ...

“Maybe it would have been safer if I hadn't said anything. But it was an exciting and historic day for the state and I thought if I was confident about what the outcome would be I should share that with the people who had gone out to their caucuses.”

So it was just such a rollicking good time Esser figured he owed the participants a decision as long as he was confident what the outcome would be.

... snip ...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/177863.php

Late Update: It seems that Washington State GOP chair Luke Esser spent most of the day avoiding calls from the Huckabee campaign. And when he finally got back to them he told a lawyer for Huckabee's campaign that they'd probably count the rest of the votes some time next week. When the lawyer, Lauren Huckabee, the candidate's daughter-in-law, requested that a Huckabee lawyer be present when the remaining votes were counted, Esser hung up on her. Before the hang up, Huckabee also asked Esser about the DIY statistical analysis he did to conclude that he should call the race (Esser's expertise in statistics apparently stems from previous work as a state prosectur and a sports writer). Was there an analysis of what precincts the remaining votes came from? According to Huck campaign manager Ed Rollins, Esser admitted that he didn't which precincts the remaining votes came from.

What a fucked up thing to do!
:wtf:

in 2000!

...he just had his people spread lies about John McCain.

It was well known in 2000 that the numbers didn't add up. SC was the dry run for Florida (and Tennessee, and Georgia and a few more I suspect)

the count.

Was quitting the count even legal?

It would be a boatload of bad news for McCain if he lost all three. I smell conspiracy.

(sarcasm)

Damn, this is the most fascinating race ever. :-)

"...in a free, fair, and transparent manner."

- Ed Rollins for the Huckabee campaign.

Republicans weren't so eager to count the votes in Florida in 2000.

Huckabee was ahead for most of the early vote count, wasn't he? Then I looked up and all of a sudden McCain was the winner.

:wtf: Is that even legal? If it is, it's still stupid. Huckabee should demand witnesses when they finally get around to counting.

"And in other news... turns out Huckabee won Washington."