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Gen election: Clinton could pick off AK, TN, OH, FL. Obama would probably lose PA, NV, NM, CO

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Proud2BAmurkin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:04 PM
Original message
Gen election: Clinton could pick off AK, TN, OH, FL. Obama would probably lose PA, NV, NM, CO
The RePUKES want Obama to win because he'll lose.

A combination of Hispanic voters and Arnold put CA at risk in a pro immigration McCain against Obama race.

Hispanics could flip NV and NM and CO.

Clinton won PA by 9, Gore by 5, Kerry by 2. Obama would lose PA in November against McCain.

There's no state Obama could take from the PUKE column and several BIG ones in our column he would lose.

Look at the exits, do the math. It's all there for anybody who wants to see.
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Thrill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:05 PM
Response to Original message
1. YAWNNNNNNNNN
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rateyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:06 PM
Response to Original message
2. Hey, everyone, let my post be the last kick this and all other threads
Edited on Mon Feb-11-08 01:07 PM by rateyes
by the murkin gets....watch them drop like a rock to the bottom of the GD: P cesspool.
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ingac70 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:07 PM
Response to Original message
3. Clinton would not win TN in the GE.
Neither would Obama.

Hello from Tennessee!
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Proud2BAmurkin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:34 PM
Response to Reply #3
14. Probably unlikely but a slight possibility. The rest are probabilities
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Iceburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:45 PM
Response to Reply #3
23. 18 to 25% of the Republican women in Tennesee would swing to Hillary
Recent Rasmussen Reports polling data from match-ups against top Republican candidates offers some support for that claim—it shows Clinton attracting an average of 18% support from Republican women.
...
In the eight match-up polls included for this analysis, Clinton’s best performance showed her picking up 25% of Republican women. Her weakest performance was just 10% of Republican women. Those points are roughly equidistant from the average result of 18%.
link
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ingac70 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 02:12 PM
Response to Reply #23
27. I live here and know better than that poll. n/t.
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The Velveteen Ocelot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:09 PM
Response to Original message
4. Here we go again... No link, no reference, no nothing. Just gas.
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Proud2BAmurkin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:38 PM
Response to Reply #4
16. link
http://www.cnn.com

"election center"

it's all there
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:09 PM
Response to Original message
5. quack quack quack quack quack quack quack
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JackORoses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:10 PM
Response to Original message
6. are these estimates based on any data or just your political savvy?
what do you think about the impending thread limits here at DU?
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Proud2BAmurkin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:36 PM
Response to Reply #6
15. again look at the exit polls and the history of those states, it's all there
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JackORoses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:44 PM
Response to Reply #15
22. how do exit polls from a Dem Primary have any bearing on the GE?
not liking the thread limit, I take it.
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Proud2BAmurkin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 02:26 PM
Response to Reply #22
35. They show strong trends among groups
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Unsane Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:11 PM
Response to Original message
7. Thanks. Now go play with your blocks.
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Thrill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:12 PM
Response to Original message
8. Yeah all those Democrats are going to vote for warmonger John McCain
who has no answers for health care and the economy.

Give me a break from this nonsense
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EmperorHasNoClothes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:14 PM
Response to Original message
9. pa·ri·ah
pa·ri·ah /pəˈraɪə/
–noun
1. an outcast.
2. any person or animal that is generally despised or avoided.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:39 PM
Response to Reply #9
17. consider this a rec
great post!
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Blue_State_Elitist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:17 PM
Response to Original message
10. I tend to agree that they think they have a better shot against Obama.
If they can take latino votes in even higher numbers than Bush did, we could lose a few states this time that we would normally win.
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gaiilonfong Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:20 PM
Response to Original message
11. sel delete dupe
Edited on Mon Feb-11-08 01:21 PM by gaiilonfong
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gaiilonfong Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:20 PM
Response to Original message
12. pomm neii wheyr n/t
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Melinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:31 PM
Response to Original message
13. Funny, that's not what you said in *this* thread,. And then there are *your other predictions*...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=3919227

Proud2BAmurkin (1000+ posts) Mon Dec-31-07 08:18 PM
Original message

Edwards will probably win Iowa. Clinton will probably come in second. Obama will lose then fade

"The "no there there" meme on Obama is spreading. If he wins Iowa, he goes on for a while but loses eventually. If he loses Iowa, no one remembers his name by next Monday."


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4074681

Proud2BAmurkin (1000+ posts) Tue Jan-15-08 01:00 PM
Original message

I put Obama's and Edwards' chances about even right now.

"Obama has peaked. Iowa win was his chance to get some momentum and overtake Clinton. He failed to do that and NH was devastating. Now he's dropping in national polls and the only hope supporters cling to is an occasional state poll showing him only 12 points behind Clinton instead of 30."


I could post your NV prediction thread and other follow-ups, but I think people prolly get the idea.

Put away your calculator-- it seems to be broken, and your variables equivocate from thread to thread. Oh, and don't quit your day job. :hi:

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Proud2BAmurkin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:39 PM
Response to Reply #13
18. I notice there has been no argument against the analysis since
there isn't one
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:43 PM
Response to Reply #18
21. see post #9 for the reason why
nothing to do here but mock and sneer. You provide no facts and links, just bullshit speculation. And the vast majority here know what's you're up to.
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Melinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 02:24 PM
Response to Reply #18
34. My dear Don Quixote, I've nothing to refute....
Edited on Mon Feb-11-08 02:31 PM by Melinda
You provide no hypothesis, no facts, no argument just your simple opinion, which, as I have shown, has proven to be nothing more than you chasing the windmills in your mind through DU.

I don't often post, although I've been on DU since 2001, however I do read and attempt to critically analyze all information and opinions proffered so that I make the best informed decisions possible. And what I have observed during the course of the last few months is you, and people like you, who post bullshit simply designed to stir animosity amongst the rest of us. Thus, it is easy to track your posts and show your act as a modern day "Don Quixote", complete with HRC cast as your "Dulcinea", and your deception exposed.

<End scene>

The critics have panned your play.

* edited to change "You've" to "I've"
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Red Zelda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:41 PM
Response to Original message
19. You're dreaming
Clinton could not win PA without Rendell's gang of thugs fixing the election.
TN? No way. Billary would lose WI, WA, ME and who knows what else.

Obama!
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HiFructosePronSyrup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:42 PM
Response to Original message
20. So what's Terry Schaivo doing in heaven right now?
I'm asking becasue you appear to be a graduate of the Bill Frist School of Psychic Phenomenon.
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onenote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:51 PM
Response to Original message
24. since you've got a crystal ball:
Who would be McCain's running mate? Who would be Obama's? Who would be Clinton's?

What is the repub platform going to say about immigration? Will it be something that Hispanic voters will approve? Will McCain disavow it or run on it?

Tell us some other things that we don't know, but that you apparently have figured out
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ShadowLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:52 PM
Response to Original message
25. I strongly disagree, it's too early for state by state yet
I strongly disagree with this, it's too soon to predict how states will go. Besides that most of Clinton's supporters will probably support Obama.

I'm from PA and I disagree that McCain would definitely win, we're a swing state that's been slowly going blue over the years, we kicked Santorum out of office by 20% of the vote. PA definitely isn't a lock for us, I could definitely see us losing it if we nominate someone polarizing like Hillary (but I will admit I'm an Obama supporter, so my opinion may be biased a bit).
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 01:52 PM
Response to Original message
26. Edit: nm, didn't see it was a P2BA thread.
Edited on Mon Feb-11-08 01:54 PM by Occam Bandage
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Arugula Latte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 02:14 PM
Response to Original message
28. Your ass sure is a reliable source, isn't it?
;)
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TheDonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 02:14 PM
Response to Original message
29. I do not think any D will carry AK, TN, OR FL. I think all are vulnerable in PA, NV et al
The GE will not be a cake walk for any candidate. I think Obama is a little stronger but it will be a battle for whoever.
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Maribelle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 02:23 PM
Response to Reply #29
33. Obama's chances to win Florida are now slim at best. Hillary's chances are better.
Edited on Mon Feb-11-08 02:24 PM by Maribelle
In fact, all hopes of democrats regaining any power whatsoever in Florida are now dim.

Republicans savor in the dichotomy of what the RNC did to republican voters in Florida compared to what the DNC has done- as republicans saw themselves closely monitored on election eve with wide spread coverage on all networks and cable news programs, all the while their fellow floridian democrats got zilch.

Sad, really, when democrats were just starting to recover from the vicious slashing republican gerrymandering has done to the southern districts of Florida.

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Bicoastal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 02:16 PM
Response to Original message
30. Listen to me people! I'm an expert! Honest! nt
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brooklynite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 02:16 PM
Response to Original message
31. Speaking as a Clinton supporter...
...don't we deserve an explanation of why you think these outcomes will occur?
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Bicoastal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-11-08 02:19 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. P2BA don't give no explanations or links! P2BA = truth!
Except for all of those times he's been wrong, of course,
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