Why Dean Will Get the Nomination With the Help of Clark

(from Dailykos---copyright is free)

Political Scientist Thomas Schaller's guest column in the Baltimore Sun gives us two great bits of info. First of all, an education on delegate selection and the role of super delegates in the nomination battle.

Including contests in the states, territories and even among Democrats living abroad - who get seven delegates - there are a total of 56 primaries and caucuses between January 19 and June 8 that choose 3,520 delegates. The remaining 797 votes are cast by what are known as "superdelegates" - former and current elected officials and party leaders. A majority (2,159 or more) of these 4,317 total delegates is needed to win the nomination. Dean has over 2,000 of those delegates needed to win the nomination.

That part is simple enough. Far more complicated is how, and when, these delegates are won.

Because they comprise 36 percent of the delegates needed for a majority, superdelegates have the potential to tip the balance in favor of one candidate or another.

But the irony, says veteran presidential campaign adviser Elaine Kamarck, is that though superdelegates have automatic "ex officio" votes by virtue of being members of the party'selected and appointed leadership, they tend to stay on the sidelines until after their respective state primaries. "I can promise you one thing about superdelegates in this process," Kamarck, an expert in the delegate-selection process, predicted at a recent panel in Washington sponsored by the National Journal. "They are followers, not leaders."

Former Vice President Al Gore's surprising endorsement of Dean early this month is a notable exception. As are the endorsement from some of the big names among Maryland's 29 superdelegates: Baltimore's Mayor Martin O'Malley and Rep. Elijah E. Cummings back Dean while Reps. Benjamin L. Cardin and Steny H. Hoyer have endorsed longtime House colleague, Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri. But such decisions are not likely to create an avalanche of superdelegate endorsements. And that means that, as usual, the nomination will be decided by the primaries and caucuses that begin in Iowa.

The translation of those results into delegate counts is no longer winner-take-all, as it was in some states before 1998, nor is it strictly proportional. After the Rev. Jesse L. Jackson's campaign in 1984, national party rules established a 15-percent minimum threshold for winning delegates - a benchmark that applies both statewide and within each of the state's congressional districts. So a candidate who fails to get 15 percent support statewide may still do well enough in certain districts to win delegates.

Schaffer then offers some interesting analysis on how Clark's candidacy may actually (and ironically) pave the way for a Dean nomination.

In theory, the threshold, when combined with the district-level assignment of delegates, should prevent a front-running candidate from parlaying narrow statewide victories into huge delegate leads. In practice, however, this year's large field makes it tougher for Dean's pursuers to catch him.

Take New Hampshire, home of the nation's first primary. Recent polls show Dean's support hovering near 40 percent (except for Kerry), with none of the other contenders above 15 percent. (Plenty of undecided voters remain, of course.) If these numbers hold on Jan. 27 and the remaining 60 percent is split somewhat evenly among the other eight candidates, Dean could win every delegate in the first primary despite three out of every five votes being cast for someone else.

In states with heavily black congressional districts, the math could even turn upside down. Statewide, African-American candidates the Rev. Al Sharpton and former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun may finish in single digits, at or near the bottom of the pack. But if they can reach the 15-percent threshold in majority-black districts, they could win as many as, if not more delegates than some of the candidates who bested them statewide.

This delegate-selection calculus may prove especially punitive for retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark. He is now Dean's closest challenger, but a series of second- and third-place finishes could doom his candidacy if he cannot consistently clear the 15-percent hurdle.

That said, Clark's task is not so much reducing the distance between himself and Dean as increasing the distance between himself and the other serious challengers: Gephardt, and Sens. John Edwards of North Carolina, John Kerry of Massachusetts and Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut. Should he fail to do so, the irony of Clark's campaign will be that his late battle engagement made Dean's path to the nomination easier, not harder, because it makes the 15 percent minimum more difficult to reach for any of Dean's pursuers.

That's why if there really is a "Stop Dean" movement among the high party establishment circles, more presidential democratic candidates would be dropping out, so their potential votes could move to the number two candidate such as Clark. Since that isn't happening, it looks like Dean's on his way to locking up the nomination.

so it looks like unless Clark moves fast, he might not even get the delegates needed if he doesn't reach the 15% threshold.

Oops, looks like Kerry's not at 19% anymore.

The others are still convinced they can be the "anti-Dean", and they stay in the race. Good news for Dean. :)

;-) Isn't that ironic?

oh the irony

Hehe.

You beat me by two minutes, TexasPatriot!

}(

Too funny. Yes, and Dr. Dean is so humble and non-ego-driven....

it would be a good strategy at this point.

For example, Gephardt should be trying to snatch up Lieberman supporters. Kerry should be going after Gephardt & Clark supporters. Clark, Kerry supporters. Kucinich - Kerry, Clark, Sharpton & Braun.

Not to say they should be praising Dean. This is a primary. But we know for sure that one candidate will be there until the end, and that many will be dropping out in a matter of weeks. They'll want to snap up that support when it happens.

The first one to break from the Dean dogpile would reap the most benefits in the inevitable niche market that will open up after NH/IA.

each other, and thus he gets to remain above the fray, but since they're not doing that, Dean's involved in the fray.

there will still be 7 others to gang up on Dean - at least for a little while.

I'll go out on a limb to say Edwards or Clark are in the best positions to do it. They've been appearing mostly above the fray anyways, plus they have the funding to last longer & not become one of the early dropouts.

therefore logically, she should benefit hugely from that, but she's remained at the bottom of most state polls.

It's a delayed gratification strategy that pays off if you last longer than the candidate you set your sights on.

Besides, backing off of Dean is only half the strategy. It's not being above the fray, or even attacking others - it's targeting the supporters of others & selling yourself. Everybody's sorta doing that, but it's a half-assed effort because all they're focused on is dean dean dean.

Analysis like this makes me more fascinated by number theory. This is really intriguing.

his title thread was "Politics 101: How Clark may help Dean" but to me, it's more of a Politics 300 class.

It's probability and statistics. For a great short course on P/S, check out a book called 'PDQ Statistics'. You'll never look at polling the same way again.

1) I don't quite understand the 15% rule -
"So a candidate who fails to get 15 percent support statewide may still do well enough in certain districts to win delegates."
Please explain.


2) If the other candidates want to "stop Dean" why don't some of them simply drop out? A little ego involvement here?

1) Delegates (at least some) are awarded by congressional district. Win more than 15% of the vote in a particular congressional district and you get some delgates.

2) Sounds like an opinion.

On your question about number one, a candidate that fails to win 15% support statewide can still win a small number of delegates in certain districts. It still won't give that candidate the impetus needed nor the large number of delegates to win the nomination.

As for number two, it's obvious that there's ego involvement here because if there was a serious "Stop Dean" movement, they'd drop out to narrow the field and throw their supporters to the potential top anti-Dean candidate. So their rhetoric is basically all hot air.

What happens in Iowa and New Hampshire regarding a large field keeping most if not all candidates other than Dean below that 15% threshold is not very significant, only because so few actual delegates get selected there.

However if the "also rans" don't start leaking supporters starting Feb. 3rd, the dynabmic you describe comes more into play.

and people like a winner, so it's a huge probability that momentum could carry over into Feb.3 states if the nominee knows how to parlay that momentum.

We should know how this plays out soon enough!

:bounce:

I guess there will be a Bush for Democratic Nominee section at the Convention?

How does this affect the numbers? ;)

:puke:

It seems like the anybody but Dean people, if they are sincere in "fearing a Dean nomination" should be trying to get Clark to drop out.

movement is a silly concept. I seriously doubt if Wes Clark, John Kerry, et al are in the race to stop Dean. They are in the race for a chance to be nominated as the Presidential candidate. I suspect if you were to ask Wes Clark, for instance, if he has strong preference over who should win if he can not that he would pony up a name.

Every one of the "major" candidates is simply in the race to win.

That is why the stop Dean movement is a bunch of bull. When people sob about how Dean is going to kill the democratic party and doom us to failure, what they really mean is that they are pissed their candidate is not doing as well.

They are always thought-provoking and thorough.

;-)

Great source. :puke:

it's a interesting take on the 15% needed to win delegates.

Did you read the article? If so, anything in particular you take issue with?

Julie

"more presidential democratic candidates would be dropping out, so their potential votes could move to the number two candidate such as Clark. Since that isn't happening, it looks like Dean's on his way to locking up the nomination. "

LOL! There havn't been any primaries yet--and believe me when DG JL and JE drop out those delegates won't be going to Howard Dean. But this is what we're afraid of, and hence, the post.

You should also read more closely. When the author is talking about a string of third place finishes, he ain't talking about tiny little states like IA and NH and CT.

Now that Dean is beginning to peter out, folks, we'll be hearing a lot more of the inevitibility death throes from the Dean supporters. Just keep watching those polls.

Nah, Dean's in the best position possible to get the nomination and the other candidates aren't. End of story.

Now that Dean is beginning to peter out, folks, we'll be hearing a lot more of the inevitibility death throes from the Dean supporters. Just keep watching those polls.

Really?

As of 2 PM Eastern Time on New Year's Eve (December 31, 2003), supporters of Howard Dean for President have raised a total so far of $14,846,895.88 in the 4th quarter. Nearly 140,000 individuals this quarter alone participated in the record-breaking achievement, including over 50,000 new individual 4th quarter contributors. Over 280,000 individuals have contributed financially to the Dean campaign to date.

With ten hours to go in the Eastern time zone (and a couple more hours in other time zones), the Dean campaign is now working on setting the exact number for the new Democratic record.

Dean's 3rd quarter fundraising of $14.8 million eclipsed the previous record holder, President Bill Clinton, by over $4 million. Clinton ran unopposed for his party's nomination in the 3rd quarter of 1995. (Dean is running in a nine, formerly ten, candidate field against a sitting Republican president.)

Dean's supporters have also accomplished something else unprecedented in Democratic fundraising history: they bested his previous record in the 4th quarter before the election year. In comparison, Clinton's fundraising dropped by about 40% in the 4th quarter of 1995. Al Gore's fundraising also experienced a comparable dip of about 40% from the 3rd to 4th quarters of 1999. No candidate has been able to sustain such a fundraising performance in the fourth quarter after a 3rd quarter record, much less raise more funds.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=46858

I wonder what "picking up momentum" looks like to you if this is what "beginning to peter out" means to you.

Julie

;-)

fear is so obvious no??

;-)

it ain't Dukakis :)

And uh..."it aint Dukakis"

*snicker*

Really? When was the vote held? Did I miss it? :shrug: I think the old saying about "counting your chickens before they hatch" applies here.

endorsements of delegates and superdelegates.....equal over 2,000 delegates needed to win nomination.

*winks*

I have always felt that Clark made a much better anti-Kerry or anti-Gephardt, anti-Edwards candidate.

He out guns Kerry on the military credentials, he is fairly good looking but with a more mature appearance and has a bit southern charm to compete with Edwards, his platform is generally centrist and 'strong on defense' to compete with all three.

Singled out from the crowd, anyone of these guys would likely give Dean a better run for the money that they will do as a group. My bet is on Clark being the last one standing to square up with Dean for the nomination.

But with the primary season so compressed, my bet is also on the other three staying around just long enough that their leaving the race will make little difference on the outcome.

which means that you really haven't read the post.

when the candidate they were committed to later drops out? Can they switch their vote to anyone they choose? What if few or none drop out and we go to the convention without one candidate having a clear majority in delegate count?

I ask these questions because I can foresee a brokered convention resulting from a highly likely confluence of events. Do any experts see this as a possibility?

"That's why if there really is a "Stop Dean" movement among the high party establishment circles, more presidential democratic candidates would be dropping out, so their potential votes could move to the number two candidate such as Clark. SINCE THAT ISN'T HAPPENING, it LOOKS like Dean's on his way to locking up the nomination."

"LOOKS" can often be deceiving...lets see what happens...it's early days yet