Why Texas will mean the end of the Clinton Campaign

I. Make or Break State
Clinton surrogates have gone on record in a high profile way that Texas is an absolute must win.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/13/carville-do-or-die-for-clinton-in-texas-and-ohio/
quote
He hinted at a similar sentiment earlier this week on CNN, but James Carville – a supporter of Hillary Clinton’s White House run — was decidedly more blunt Wednesday on the impact a loss in Texas or Ohio would have on her presidential bid.
"Make no mistake," Bill Clinton's former chief strategist told the Orlando Sentinel. "If she loses either Texas or Ohio, this thing is done."unquote

II. Texas is in part a caucus state:

http://www.star-telegram.com/national_news/story/464900.html
quote
Texas has an unusual system of choosing delegates that involves both a primary and a caucus.

The system, which follows national party standards, is geared to ensure that all Democrats have a shot at making it to the convention and making their voice -- and choice -- heard.

"It's very, very confusing in the way politics in general is confusing," said Rebecca Deen, an associate professor of political science at the University of Texas in Arlington. "The Democratic National Convention has weighted the votes, but they want to make sure the people who participate get to weigh in."

Texas will send 228 delegates to this year's Democratic National Convention in Denver. Of those delegates, 126 will be assigned to vote for candidates based on election results.

An additional 35 will be super delegates . . .The remaining 67 delegates will be chosen through the caucus system -- with 42 being rank-and-file Democrats and 25 being party leaders and elected officials, according to a Lone Star Project Report.
unquote

Hillary and her machine has already dissed the caucus system pretty thoroughly I wonder who energized their folks are going to be for a process disavowed by their candidate. More to the point Obama's forces are skilled and they have the bodies motivated to move on a caucus.

III. The absence of a post Feb 5th campaign plan shows Clintons behind Obama in organization

On Feb 6th the Clinton campaign identified a single staffer going to Texas while Obama campaign had a detailed plan sending in the Iowa team to open 10 offices. http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/politics/5520230.html

quote Adrienne Elrod, a 1998 Texas Christian University graduate who worked on the campaign of Houston Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson, flew to the state to do communications for Clinton. . . .

Obama officials said he would open 10 offices around the state including Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin and in the Rio Grande Valley.

The campaign named Adrien Saenz, a former aide to Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, D-San Antonio, to be its state director, and Mitch Stewart, who directed Obama's Iowa grass roots operations, to be Texas field director.

Another veteran of the Iowa campaign, Josh Ernest, a 1997 Rice University graduate who worked on former Houston Mayor Lee Brown's 1997 campaign, was named communications director.

"The ground team that has been on board since Iowa is parachuting in tonight (Wednesday)," said Juan Garcia, a Texas state lawmaker from Corpus Christi who attended Harvard Law School with Obama.



IV Delegate Distribution favors Obama.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/02/texass_unique_primaucus.php

To begin with no one gets a single delegate for taking the state. Delegates are appropriated to state senate districts based on Kerry's performance in 04.

quote
The delegate-rich districts are the most heavily liberal state senate districts. According to this calculation, they're in Austin and in two of the most concentrated African American parts of the state. Advantage: Obama.

Clinton will get plenty of support from Latino voters, but they tend to be more spread out and thus will see their votes somewhat diluted in the 31 separate primaries. In order to "win" -- both enough delegates and statewide, you need to organize what amounts to caucus-like campaigns in each of these districts.

The white vote in Texas will probably split, with Obama taking men and Clinton taking women. Though Latinos make up a slightly larger share of the electorate than African Americans, they tend to vote in lower proportions.

Unquote.


V. Its a narrower election map.

Obama underperformed on Feb 5th because he had to spread his resources to 20 states and fight the most established machine in modern history. He was unable to personalize the campaign in every large state. He was still able to narrow the margin and either win or reduce significantly what was a 20 point plus margin in most states.

This time he will be able to focus tremendous resources including; campaign staff, money, campaign appearances, media campaigns on basically two states. He will be able to spend significant time in Texas. Currently Clinton 48 Obama 38.

Obama also has a great deal of momentum that he did not have on Feb 5th, the Hispanic community is not as homogeneously organized in Texas as it is in CA. Anecdotally Texas is thought of a place that has particularly high anti Hillary base and it is not a closed primary.

Hillary will have a real battle in simply getting 51% of the primary vote. If she does this it will still be way behind the expectations that have been laid out. More significantly it is not just likely but probable that her percent of delegates (because of distribution and also the caucus) will be less than her popular vote percent. If she is able to sustain an electoral victory she could well end up losing the delegate battle. The latest DU reports continue to show huge numbers of volunteers being organized weeks ahead of basic steps by Clinton. Its still 3 weeks away but it appears now that Texas will likely mean the end of the Clinton campaign.

Neither Obama nor Clinton will net more than 10-20 delegates over the other in the calculation that occurs in the 31 Senatorial Districts for those 126 delegates.

A win in Texas is all about momentum, and that will be the primary goal of both camps.

I do agree with you, that Obama will win Texas, and it will crash the Hillary campaign hard.

nt

She is my all time favorite Texas political journalist, and I used to enjoy visiting with her off the record for political machinations in the party during conventions and the run ups thereto. I sure hated losing her and Ann. They were head and shoulders above Hillary, and not just physically speaking. Molly was a tall woman, and Hillary's about 4'11.

She and I were both early supporters of People for the American Way.

I saw her once at a Dem event in Austin. Damn, she looked 10' tall. I loved reading her columns & listening to her speak. I miss her & Ann so much. :cry:

dg

Molly Ivins and Ann Richards both had pure, rich, REAL Texas accents, unlike that fraud George Bush.

George invented that accent since becoming president. He didn't even talk like that as governor. He thinks he has become this wild west character, like that thief in the painting he likes to call something else.

Molly had this look she would put on when she was letting someone know that she thought they were totally full of shit. It was a wry frown/smile that said "come on, don't shit a shitter!"

I sure miss Molly and Ann, and they were two great Texas ladies.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/18/poll.texas/

Texas poll shows dead heat among Dems

n/t

:thumbsup:

said that you could vote twice in Texas. Once in the primary and then attend the caucus.

Is that right?

What kind of system is that?

Vote early and often?

If I undertstand it, both primary and caucus are held the same day, one after the other. You could conceivably vote in the primary, then caucus.

The language I've seen here, actually, states that you "MUST" caucus that night if you vote early in the day. Of course, secret ballots make it impossible to throw out the votes of those who refuse to caucus, but it's still an obligation so I think you could say you cast half of your vote in the primary, then ratify the other half in the caucus.

but in order to caucus you must have voted in the primary during the day.

It's complicated. Not quite sure I understand it myself. But then, no one else does either, so we're all in the same boat. It's gonna be fun.

dg

to caucus!

I don't think it's that complicated

in order to participate in the caucus & be eligible to go to your conventions (precinct, county, state, etc). Part of the delegate count is based on your showing in the primary; the rest is based on the caucus turn-out.

dg

All I could find was a list on wikipedia that simply stated it was not a closed primary. Do you know who can vote in the primary/caucus.

Deadline to register is 30 days before the primary. When you go vote (either early voting or on Game Day), you are asked which ballot you want (Republican or Democrat). Your registration card is then stamped "Republican" or "Democratic" & a similar stamp is placed next to your name on the rolls. You then can participate in the precinct convention of that particular party. You cannot vote in the R primary & then participate in the D precinct convention. You cannot skip voting in the primary & participate in either party's convention. You can vote in the primary & skip the convention (most do), but you will not be able to become a delegate to any of the conventions.

You are considered a member of the party whose primary you voted in, but in 2010, you can switch sides, if you so desire. You do not need to make any other kind of declaration in advance of the primary.

dg

There is a primary held where essentially, 75% of the delegates (126 out of 168) awarded will be based on the primary ballots.

15 minutes after the polls close, those who voted must return to their precinct. This "precinct convention" (caucus) will determine how the remaining 42 delegates will be allocated.

are the result of the primary, 1/4 result of caucus and 1/4 result of superdelegates.

see comprehensive info far below

Poll: Hillary Up 8 Points In Texas Primary
By Eric Kleefeld - February 15, 2008, 8:40AM

A new poll of Texas shows Hillary Clinton with a lead over Barack Obama, but not a huge one in a state that has become part of her new firewall strategy along with Ohio, and where she'd need a big win in order to make the race for pledged delegates truly competitive again.

The IVR poll gives Hillary 49% to Obama's 41%. As in many other primary states, Hillary leads with women, Latinos and older voters, while Obama wins with men, African-Americans and younger voters. In short, neither candidate has really eaten into the other's base here, and this looks like it's going to be a close race.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/poll_hillary_up_8_points_in_te.php

Don't mean to piggy-back on your OP but I can't launch another thread for a while. ...Not enjoying the thread-post limit. :(

it's anyone's race. yowza.

dg

Obama is closing the gap fast! Where have we seen this before!!:rofl:

What will Hillary say after Texas????

...and Bushies home state, so it really doesn't count."

:rofl:

of Barack Obama at 65% which is likely to increase.

(I had to wait 12 hours to post this. Not going to be starting threads with late breaking news anymore, lol.)

By the way I could not find anything that showed how Texas is not a closed primary just that it is not. Do you have any infor on that?

You declare when you get to the voting location (your registration card is mailed blank -- each time). When you ask for a particular ballot, they stamp your card. Now you are declared. The stamp allows you to participate in your declared party's precinct convention that night.

is a state that has a lot of people who would love to cross to vote against a Clinton.


Thanks for the information, do you have a link?

From link below:

Officially, Texas has closed primaries. But in practice, any registered voter may vote in the primary of any single party, as long as they have not voted in the primary of another party. Texas's primaries are closed in a less direct way: once a registered voter has in effect declared his or her party affiliation by voting for the nominees in a party's primary, that person cannot participate in the proceedings (for instance, a runoff primary or convention) of another party.

http://texaspolitics.laits.utexas.edu/html/vce/0201.html

It is very common for Cross-over voters in primaries down here. And many repubs/indies will cross over to vote against HRC.

and I was blocked yesterday. Today I'm being very careful about what I post. I wanted to post about the Texas poll so bad when it first came out but did not want to waste my allowed posts on it. LOL LOL I figured one of the Hillary supporters would post eventually and i could comment.

Because Barack Obama has such strong numbers in the three senate districts with the most delegates, early analyses show he could have the lead in delegates (thanks to the republicans who gerrymandered our state).

who didn't lift a finger to get a high turnout in 2004 & 2006.

dg

All Senate districts (there are 31) are not created equal for delegate purposes. The ones that best served the party in recent years get up to 7 delegates to the national convention. The ones that didn't best serve the party in recent years get 2 delegates to the national. Many districts are in between. This rewards true Democratic strongholds and ameliorates the impact of those nasty Republicans who might try to push the candidate they feel is easier to beat in November, which is Hillary, in this case.

Because Hillary's likely districts have smaller allocations of delegates, and because Obama's have larger allocations, ADVANTAGE OBAMA.

Because Hillary is unlikely to reach the threshold necessary to gain more than a delegate split in the districts she is likely to win, but Obama is likely to break the threshold in some districts he wins, ADVANTAGE OBAMA.

It gets even better than that. The American Research Group poll released today has Obama up six points overall in Texas and only trailing among Latinos by two points.

If these results hold up Hillary is toast.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

When a business lobby like the TCUL commissions a poll, it helps to know they lobby for banking interests and use push pollsters. That's a group trying to skew the outcome.

Rasmussen is a Republican Water Boy, and he WILL try to influence elections with his polls. He learned his lesson in August of 2004, when the R establishment took him to the woodshed for one poll that didn't give Bush a big post convention bump. He's the pollster version of Frank Luntz, without the bad rug.

Bottom line: They're all underpolling the likely Obama voters, because their models are built to predict the LAST election, not this one.

not human pollsters. But I agree that the likelihood of underpolling for Obama is probable.

It's a sign of desperation.

I didn't know about this... I can't believe that she is throwing all in on TX and OH then. I'm afraid that the big boned lady is humming rather loudly now.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

even devalued as it is- for every time a loser Dem adviser said such and such was a must win or so in the bag that failure meant they should get out of the business, I could buy the plane ticket to get them to Bahrain. I would have to drug and tie them first of course.

The agonizing thing is that even a must win gone bad might not numerically toss Clinton out of the running, just sandbag her electoral credentials so badly she should, if she could, start easing back and saving her money for campaign debts. It would only be resolved that Obama should have the nomination and the party would profit most from it. Without the winning number of votes for either it is becoming very hard to give up. As tremendous in scale as it is, for all that, the eventual loser(likely Hillary) is going through the same stages as every other candidate so far, only that the trap of getting this far with the numerical(if meaningless) possibility of still "winning" might make it impossible to surrender.
The campaign has also, by virtue of size and long frontrunning status become rather inflexible, more inefficient and broke. Defensiveness is as useless as assigning blame. Who wouldn't be in a similar mess or conundrum under like circumstances?

Everyone, on the other hand, will be banging their heads against the wall if the must win for Clinton merely prolongs the day of decision as it drains the party and the candidates of any value in the prize. A huge decisive win there and in other states would reverse the picture, drag down the hopefulness slogans into the dust and put us back to the beginning of the race. The past often favors that grim circle. The willingness of the candidates to carry on is set in stone. If the voters change the momentum, stagnate the waters of electoral movement, and merely leave it to others to decide, these stones will start sinking. Unprecedented wiser candidates in true control of their destinies might just decide that a "must" win has no meaning.

a couple of weeks off.

He is essentially helping the MSM frame Hillary as a loser, giving Obama surrogates ammunition to keep asking her to stand down, trying to weaken her position with the super delegates and helping his plug ugly wife's career.

Please assure me that Hillary does not employ this @ss.

Source:
www.txdemocrats.org/the_party/article_vii_national_delegate_selection_rules

Bold Print below is mine, to make the reading easier

Article VII - National Delegate Selection Rules
A. Delegates

1. In presidential years, the Party shall hold a presidential preference primary election (the "presidential primary") at the same time, in the same manner, and using the same ballot as for the general primary election (the "first primary"). (Texas Election Code §191.004)

2. To qualify for a place on the presidential primary ballot, a candidate must:

(a) Timely file all documents, if any, required by the Texas Affirmative Action Plan, or the Texas National Delegate Selection Plan.

(b) File an application for a place on the presidential primary ballot in accordance with he same Election Code provisions applicable to a candidate for the United States Senate, including submission of an appropriate petition subject to the limitations of Section 191.002 of the Texas Election Code or payment of the same filing fee. The oath on the application of a presidential candidate shall be:

"I, ______________ of __________________, __________ County/Parish, _____________, being a candidate for the Office of President of the United States, swear that I will support and defend the constitution and laws of the United States. I further swear that I will fully support the Democratic nominee for President whoever that shall be."

3. The names of all candidates qualifying to appear on the presidential primary ballot shall be certified in accordance with Article III.C.1. of these Rules, except that the State Chair also shall certify all presidential preferences to the Secretary of State. The SDEC shall, at the meeting required in Article III.C.1., decide by majority vote whether to include "Uncommitted" as an alternative on the presidential primary ballot. (Texas Election Code §191.004)

4. Results of the presidential preference primary election shall be canvassed at the same time and in the same manner as for the first primary, except that the SDEC also shall certify the results of the presidential preference primary election totaled by senatorial district.

5. The total number of Delegates and Alternates to the National Convention shall be that number allocated by the National Committee in its official Call to the Convention.

6. The process for selection of Delegates and Alternates to the National Convention shall be governed by the Texas National Delegate Selection Plan adopted by the SDEC for the presidential year. If the Plan and these Rules conflict as relates to the selection of Delegates and Alternates to the National Convention, the Plan shall be considered to supersede these Rules for that purpose alone.

7. Each elected Delegate shall be entitled to cast one vote at the National Convention, and the total vote permitted the State's delegation shall not exceed the number of its Delegates in attendance at the Convention.

8. (a) At least 75% of the base number of Delegates, not including designated Party and Elected Official Delegates, shall be elected by Senatorial District Caucuses at the State Convention. The exact number (between 75% and 100%) to be so elected shall be determined by majority vote of the SDEC at its meeting in January of presidential years and shall be included in the official Call to the State Convention of that year.

(b) Such Delegates shall be apportioned among the 31 senatorial districts by a formula giving equal weight to (a) the Democratic vote in the last gubernatorial election and (b) the Democratic vote in the last presidential election. The formula may be stated mathematically as follows:

Let P equal a given district's percentage of the statewide Democratic vote in the last gubernatorial election, and let V equal that district's percentage of the total statewide vote for the Democratic nominee in the last presidential election (district vote/state vote). ( P + V) divided by 2 = that district's percentage of the total number of Delegates to be elected by the senatorial districts, as opposed to the number to be elected at-large.

(c) To apply the apportionment formula, multiply the resulting percentage times the total number of Delegates to be elected from all Senatorial District Caucuses. Assign each Senatorial District Caucus the whole number of Delegates resulting from this product. Assign remaining Delegates to Senatorial District Caucuses in descending order of fractional remainder, until all allocated Delegates have been assigned.

9. The remaining Delegates to the National Convention (between 0% and 25%) shall be elected at-large by majority vote of the State Convention as a whole. Such At-Large Delegates shall be nominated by the Convention's Permanent Nominations Committee for At-Large Delegates and/or from the floor, in accordance with these Rules.

10. The explicit number of National Convention Delegates to be elected by each senatorial district and the explicit number to be elected at-large by the Convention according to the above procedures shall be announced by the State Chair and certified to the Secretary of State at least 30 days prior to the Precinct Conventions.

11. (a) The procedure for nominating and for electing Delegates within the Senatorial District Caucuses shall be as follows: Each Senatorial District Caucus may choose, by majority vote, any of the following methods to nominate such officers, Delegates, Alternates, and members of permanent Convention Committees which the Caucus is entitled to elect: elect a Nominations Committee(s); direct the Caucus Chair to appoint a Nomination Committee(s); or act as a Committee of the Whole, with all nominations made from the Caucus Floor.

(b) Regardless of the method chosen, however, all persons eligible to participate in a Caucus shall be permitted to nominate themselves or other eligible persons for any office to be filled by the Caucus. If a Nominations Committee is appointed, such nominations may be made by submitting them in writing to the Nominations Committee of the Caucus and/or by proposing them from the floor after a Nominations Committee has made its report and before a vote is taken.

(c) Election shall be by majority vote of the duly elected Delegates in attendance at the Caucus, each casting a proportionate share of the full voting strength allotted to the county represented, and each entitled to vote for as many Offices, Delegates and Convention Committee members as there are positions to be filled by the Senatorial District Caucus.

12. No Texas Delegate to a National Convention may be selected by any method, whether called "direct election primary" or otherwise, which has the effect of being a winner take all Primary.



B. Alternates

1. The total number of Alternates shall be allocated among the senatorial districts in the same manner specified for Delegates, except that the exact number of Alternates to be elected by the Senatorial District Caucuses (between 75% and 100%) need not be set by the SDEC at a percentage identical to that set for Delegates.

2. After the Senatorial District Caucuses elect Delegates to the National Convention, they shall nominate and elect their Alternates in the same manner. A person nominated for Alternate by a Senatorial District Caucus shall be eligible for election as an At-Large Delegate. When the Nominations Committee selects an Alternate from a Senatorial District Caucus to serve instead as an At-Large Delegate, the Nominations Committee shall declare such Alternate position vacant and shall fill it as if it were an At-Large Alternate position.

3. Following the election of At-Large Delegates by the Convention, At-Large Alternates shall be elected in the same manner.



C. Succession of Alternates to Delegate Status

Alternates shall succeed to Delegate status according to the procedures outlined in Article IV.A.17 of these Party Rules.



D. Guidelines for Representation of the Delegation

1. The Convention shall make every feasible effort to encourage representation on the National Convention delegation of women, minorities, and youth in reasonable relationship to their presence in the population of the state.

2. Candidates for Delegate or Alternate shall be required to make known their presidential preference or uncommitted status to the relevant assembly prior to their election.

-----------------------------------------------

HOW TO BE A DELEGATE TO THE 2008
DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION

www.txdemocrats.org/the_party/article_vii_national_delegate_selection_rules

Texas will send 228 delegates and 32 alternates to the Democratic
National Convention in 2008. These Texans will help
choose the Democratic nominees for President and Vice
President, and they will also express opinions on key national
issues. We encourage you to participate and to run
for national delegate. What follows is, in general terms, an
explanation of how to be a delegate to the National Convention.
If you want more information, read the “Texas
Democratic Party National Delegate Selection Plan for
2008” and the “Rules of the Texas Democratic Party.” Both
are available on the Texas Democratic Party website,
www.txdemocrats.org.
FILING REQUIREMENTS
To become a delegate to the National Convention you must:
1. Vote in the 2008 Democratic primary;
2. File a Statement of Candidacy with the State Chair no
earlier than April 21 and no later than May 21, 2008. Filing
forms will be available from the Texas Democratic Party
by April 5, 2008; and
3. Be elected by the State Convention in Austin June 6-7,
2008. If you participate in all stages of the convention process
and campaign among delegates to the State Convention,
you will have a better chance to become a delegate.
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
Texas will hold a presidential primary on Tuesday, March
4, 2008. The Primary will be open to any registered Texas
voter who does not vote in another party’s primary and who
does not attend another party’s political convention.
A total of 126 delegate positions (three-quarters of the base
delegation) will be distributed to presidential candidates
based on the results of the primary. Forty-two delegate positions
(one-quarter of the base delegation) will be distributed
based on the number of people attending the party’s
conventions. The delegates themselves will be elected at our
State Convention June 6-7, 2008, in Austin.
CONVENTION SYSTEM
Texas Democratic Party has a three-level convention system:
Level 1. Precinct Conventions;
Level 2. County Conventions (or Senatorial District Conventions
in urban areas); and
Level 3. State Convention.
Those who attend their Precinct Convention will elect delegates
to the County/Senatorial Convention; those who attend
their County/Senatorial Convention will elect delegates
to the State Convention. Those who attend the State Convention
will elect delegates to the National Convention.
PRECINCT CONVENTIONS
A convention will be held in your precinct at 7:15 p.m. on
March 4, 2008, the same day as the Presidential Primary.
The convention is usually held at the polling place and is
open to anyone who votes in the Democratic Primary that
day (or during the early voting period). There will be a sign
at the polling place telling exactly where the convention will
be held. If you can’t find a sign, ask your election clerk where
the convention will be held.
The convention begins at 7:15 p.m. when the Precinct Chair
calls the convention to order. If the Precinct Chair is absent,
anyone participating may start the meeting. The convention
is governed by Robert’s Rules of Order and Texas
Democratic Party Rules. If you are late to the convention,
you can still participate; however, you can’t change what
has already happened.
The first item of business is for everyone attending to
sign in and indicate the presidential candidate (including
undecided) he or she supports. This is not a secret
ballot. The State Party will provide your Precinct Chair
with forms to use.
Next, the convention elects a Chair and Secretary to run
the convention.
Third, the Chair announces:
1. The number of delegates to the County/Senatorial Convention
the precinct will elect;
2. The percent of people attending the Precinct Convention
who support each candidate; and
3. The number of delegates the supporters of each candidate
are entitled to elect.

Delegates are awarded to presidential candidates based on a
candidate’s share of supporters at the convention by using
the following formula:
E-Z Math Formula to Determine Threshold
Number of People at Precinct Convention
Divided By
Number Of Delegates To County/Senatorial
Convention To Which The Precinct Is Entitled
Equals
Threshold (Number of People
Required for a Candidate Caucus)
(Always Round Up)

because these were the rules that were in place when all the Clinton people said that she "had to win".

By the way are you also against independents voting in the democrat primary?


Should the independent Hispanics that came out and voted for Hillary in the CA primary vote be taken away?

we won't know the real results until June? They said something about not knowing until the Texas convention?

Only 126 of Texas' 228 delegates are decided immediately by the primary/caucuses on March 4th.

Another 42 will be decided at the convention in June, as set out in my post above, which provides in bold the information you seek. Those will be decided proportionally, so they will largely track the allocations of the 126 delegates.

Bottom line is that a rough gauge of the split of the 126 + 42 can be determined once the March 4th results are known.

to be eligible for the caucus