Recent polls and delegate totals

The following is a calculation based on the most recent rasmussen poll numbers and CNN delegate counts
Starting numbers(not including supers O:257 C:244)
Obama 1096
Clinton 977

WI 74
C:43% 32
O:47% 35

OH 141
C:51% 72
O:37% 52

TX 193
C:54% 104
O:38% 73

HI 20
No poll numbers

RI 21
No Poll Numbers

Vermont 15
No Poll Numbers


Totals:
C:1185
O:1256

With know Supers
C:1442
O:1513
(this of course disregards any supers that would drop after a primary is over)


I guess i can see why Clinton is focusing on the supers at this point. Even with heavy projected leads, she needs over a hundred more voter based delegates.

please mention any mistakes
(thanks for pointing out the error, now corrected. i had done a straight subtraction without remembering that there where undecideds. No each candidate gets his or her percentage of delegates.)
Thanks and enjoy.

Obama wins 10 extra delegates in WI with both candidates over the 40% threshhold and a 4% edge but Clinton only wins 3 extra in much bigger OH with a 14% lead and Obama under 40%? I know the allocation is dependent on district votes but I can't imagine both those being true.

I didnt allow for undecideds, let me correct.


Thanks

Wins on March 4th in Ohio and Texas will give her lots of press attention...she'll claim that she is on her way to the nomination, there will be balloons, screaming crowds, lots of coverage, headlines, etc....March 5th headlines are LIKELY to be "Comeback KID" and that sort of crap..PREPARE FOR THIS

That, as Obama supporters, is what we must endure, that is ultimately, what could lose us the nomination....because look, in terms of raw numbers, your analysis looks pretty accurate...don't forget all the other states that have to vote as well, like Indiana, North Carolina, Mississippi, Wyoming, etc...all states that Obama will pick up delegates in. But again, the only thing that could stop Obama, is if she picks up so much momentum from March 4th, that she starts winning other states that Obama is currently favored in.

I think there are lots of questions remaining but i think there are some absolute "certainties" based on the makeup of the electorate, and one of those is the fact that Obama will NOT win Ohio or Texas. I think finding strategies to dampen her likely 3/4 sweep are important for Obama's campaign.

At teh same time as TX but after that only about 533 more. Pressure will start occurring after TX for a clear leader to emerge so that party divisions can heal and we can campaign against McWalker.

They appear to be only polling Democrats. TX, OH, PA are open primaries.

Large percentage of undecided and likely-to-change voters, too.

:dem:

...in every state and come back to win two out of three of them.

The campaign in Ohio only began yesterday. Let's wait and see what the polls show next week.

The election is three weeks off and he leads in both states that are held on Tuesday. Don't forget that Obama had only a 5 point lead in Washington state and came away with a 30+% victory --- the polls have underestimated his support in every state, save New Hampshire.

I'm not worried. This is the Clinton's supporters last hurrah. It'll be all over on March 4.

districts which have voted Democratic in the past, which means the black areas of Houston and Austin. Obama strongholds.

Plus, a lot of the districts are 4 delegate districts which means you need more than 62.5% of the vote to avoid a 2-2 split.

So the Texas system favors Obama greatly, as far as delegates are concerned. Hillary actually has a pretty legitimate beef here, though I'm sure Obama has faced some unfavorable local rules before.

I was trying to be "fair" to the HRC supporters by slanting in their favor.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4600962

At the end of the day she will be happy with an even split