If Clinton were to Lose Ohio or Texas, do you think she will drop out?

a bit to get to your scenario.

If those polling numbers reverse between now and March 4, no, I don't think she'll drop out, but her position is weakened for negotiating in Denver.

She would have fewer delegates as opposed to Obama's more, and it would weaken her hand a bit, but I don't see her dropping out.

Hillary is leading by 4 points in 2 polls; Obama was leading by 2 in one other texas poll.

I'll find the links.

This means that, before even campaigning in the state--Obama is evaporating Hillary's
20 point leads, which existed only a week ago.

Amazing.

Edited to add links:

---Obama leading in Texas, ARG 48/42 http://americanresearchgroup.com/
---Clinton up by 8 (not 4 as I originally stated) 49/41 http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/archives/2008/02/credit_union_po.html

Burnt Orange Report, a favorite hang out of mine.

Yes, Burnt Orange Report analyzes Clinton's 8-point gain in the Texas Credit Union Poll...

http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/archives/2008/02/credit_union_po.html

...and determines, that even with Clinton's lead, she would still lose the delegate count.

(As you've no doubt read!) http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4972

:)

read than other blogs. I'm trying to nail down why that's so, because it tends toward being a mostly-Texas site.

But I like it a lot anyway.

I had to slow down to absorb the vote count/delegate awarding passages of recent days. I hope before he leaves his post as chairman, Howard Dean will gather the generals and re-construct the primary/caucus calender & procedures. It's made my head spin this year.

:rofl:

...but the old adage is that 'the best predictor of future behavior is past performance'.

It appears that Texas is following the way of many other states.

----a.) Hillary enjoys 20+ point leads
----b.) Leads narrow as the race draws near (Obama ahead in ARG Poll; Texas Credit Union-- O behind by 8-9 in another)
----c.) Obama momentum sweeps the state.

Links to polls:

ARG: http://americanresearchgroup.com/
Texas CU: http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/archives/2008/02/credit_union_po.html

:eyes:

They fly it into the ground or some mountain, because they refuse to believe the instruments.

I knew a parachuter (relative novice) who did a free fall and didn't believe his altimeter. He was getting very close to the point where you must pull the cord or experience a very hard landing. "Nahhh, that can't be right", he said as he tapped the dial.

Fortunately, he was saved by the "ground rush" phenomenon. That is, during free fall when you're high up you really don't see the ground getting closer, because it's so gradual, but once close enough (too close!) you can feel it / see it coming at you. At that point he panicked and pulled the cord in the nick of time.

If HRC loses TX and or OH, I think she's going to experience a bit of ground rush all-right. If she wants to save her political skin (we already know she doesn't give a whit about the Party itself) she'll wise up and concede before she does permanent damage. I'm not hopeful off that though, unfortunately.

:dem:

Inside a campaign the people tend to construct any plausible paradigm that allows them to continue. It often takes someone who is not inside the vortex to say "hey, you had a good run, but it's over, now you're just wasting money and time!"

"According to the altimeter, we should clear that mountain straight ahead by 10,000 feet." :)

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should drop out, get lost, and allow real Democrats to operate.

:)

but she might have to lose all of them.

At what cost?

Do the Hillary supporters ever think that far ahead?

What part of that don't you sHrillaries understand???? :banghead:

there is a big difference.

And I believe she leads in the polls in both states

Clinton supporters have got to be some of the most short-sighted people I've ever encountered in my life.

I think she will win in Ohio and Texas. She got as much chance as Obama does.

Why? Doesn't it get old after a while?

wins OH TX and WI? could he have enough to counter MI and FL and a few superdelegates?

thats obama's lead at the moment...this race have been going back and forth since the very beginning.

Losing Texas won't make her concede....if she wins at least Ohio, she will begin making the case that she will win those swing states in the GE.
Ohio, Florida....the ones that have caused the most trouble in the past two elections.

It would be a stronger argument if she had won Missouri

We will have to wait and see....you have to remember that half of the dems don't want her to quit. (probably more depending on the number of indies and repubs that are voting for Obama)