How I See The Electoral Maps Looking If Obama Or Clinton Are The Nominee's

Here is the 2004 Map:


Here it is if Hillary is the nominee:


Here it is if Obama is the nominee:







Any questions?


(Note - here's how I created this. I went to www.270towin.com and created the map, then I did a screen capture and pasted it into MS Paint, then I hosted it on imageshack. You can do this too. I'd be interested to see what other people think the maps will look like.)

Just kidding....Interesting post. I'd suggest saving it ans see how accurate it turns out in November.

:D

Do we use the same failed strategy for a third time in row (Clinton), or break through in a 50-state campaign (Obama)? I do not understand why Clinton supporters want to strike out.

Congressional seats we lost.

And I LUV your maps, LOL!!!

:kick:

Hillary easily won the primary over Obama in FL.
Whatever in the world gives you an idea Obama would win FL in general election?
FL is full of old people. It's not Obama's voting block.

campaigned there. :eyes:
If it's a choice between McCain and Obama, you think the old people will vote for the warmonger who is also old? I'm not convinced.

And OH?
Very kind of you to give OH to Obama, when poll after poll shows Hillary is doing better there than Obama.
Whatever gives you an idea Obama can win OH?

but I took away New Hampshire due to the Independents.

during these primaries: blue-collar Dems, especially male.

The same demographics that make Ohio and Pennsylvania favorable to her in the primaries also strongly favor McCain. These are the so-called Reagan Democrats, many of whom will become McCain Democrats in a race against Hillary.

The Dems have the overall momentum, and I think that Hillary could be a stronger candidate than Kerry was in Ohio. But McCain will also be a much stronger candidate in Ohio than Bush was in '04. Hillary could still win the state, and the election, but the flight of Dem males to McCain is going to be difficult to stop. Nationally, white males went for Bush over Kerry 62-37. It will be much more than that in November if Hillary is the nominee.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

If Kerry had gotten a 10 point margin in PA, OH would have easily been in the bag. Of course Clinton leads McCain by Kerry's 2 point margin.

This is one of the most striking differences between Obama supporters and Clinton supporters. And it comes from the leadership at the top.

Obama supporters see opportunity where Clinton supporters pre-emptively rule off states. Obama supporters see the American people as wanting new leadership and wanting to feel good about America again. Clinton wants to deepen the Red-Blue divide. Of course Ohio is NOT in the bag. But Ohio is a great opportunity, as is Virginia, as is Colorado, and Nevada, and YES even Georgia. We will likely not win them all. But we can organize, we can knock on doors, and we can take back the White House with a large majority that leads to a mandate for change.

Clinton, perhaps, could as well if she believed in it... but she seems to be as cynical as her supporters.

and only Obama can bring a landslide.

they knew it wouldn't count. Whatever in the world gives you the idea that Florida's primary was an accurate reflection of what voters wanted? I wouldn't have voted if I lived there - I would have felt it was a waste of time and effort.

Obama is going to disenfranchise the 2 million voters of Florida and then beat McCain there ?

LOL -- you can't make this stuff up.

Any questions?

am I the little red dot in the center?

that's still pretty good.

The Carolinas? Georgia? Arkansas and Louisiana? Montana???
I'll stop there, but there's quite a few more where he has no shot, but I won't get into any more states for now.

Are some Obama supporters this delusional?? Maybe this IS a cult. Reason has been totally thrown out the window. I wouldn't have believed it, if you didn't display that map. A picture is worth a thousand words. Yeah, that's an accurate map-----for 2020 or 2024!

The south is not going to rise again and suddenly go liberal. Virginia has not voted Democrat for forty years. Florida may be a hot contest but I don't think that Obama would win it and Clinton would lose it. That doesn't make any sense.

Arkansas and NH and New Mexico are not going to turn their backs on Clinton as he asserts.

n/t

n/t

What leads you to believe Obama has no shot at Montana?

Do you know the state well?

That will never happen. Never.

Your map makes little sense, particularly in regard to Florida.
Hillary does well there and loses it and Barrack does poor their and wins it.

Florida is tough for any Dem, with the fix so thoroughly in. Entrenched corruption.

No Katherine Harris or Jeb Bush, though.

Ohio also has similar problems.

No Blackwell as Secretary of State, though, so I think Obama wins that one. And Pennsylvania, as well.

Gov. Pawlenty is being talked up as McCain's VP. If that happens, Minnesota will be tough for either, and it might give (ick) Coleman a boost, too.

this time -- same as '00 and '04 ... nothing indicates any change at all.

PA is a goner too.

Unless Obama can really pull one out of his a$$ -- he will embarrass the entire democratic party with the biggest loss in mosern history. I see him taking his home state and not much more.

At minimum he'll do as well as Gore and Kerry.

Which isn't going to happen because Obama's a much better orator than either of them.

especially looking ahead to the GE:

http://www.ohio.com/editorial/commentary/15577337.html?page=1&c=y

taking Sherrod's advice, from another article I read today.

And welcome to DU!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4629654&mesg_id=4629654

He's also neck and neck with McCain in Florida.

Any poles between Obama and McCain currently mean nothing.

If Obama is the nominee the republicans will paint him as the most inexperienced, most liberal, most naive nominee the democrats have ever run.

If Kerry couldn't win Obama can't, and an Obama without Theresa Heins won't win PA

Doesn't guarantee that he'll win. But it shows that he should be competitive.

"If Kerry couldn't win Obama can't"

You must be kidding. Kerry was stiff and boring. He didn't energize the electorate like Obama has; he put us to sleep, even those of us who voted for him. And he didn't bring hordes of new voters into the election like Obama has. Obama is a far superior candidate to Kerry and has the ability to win more states than Kerry.

You draw absolutely the wrong lesson from Kerry's failed candidacy; the correct lesson is that experience and being a policy wonk will not win an election. If Kerry didn't teach you that lesson, then Dukkakis and Mondale should have. Stiff boring, "experienced" policy wonks aren't appealing to the general electorate. Now you want to nominate Hillary Clinton who is just another stiff, boring policy wonk. Don't you people ever learn?

and many here are making the claim that that vote was screwed. :shrug:

OP about the Bush Administration's Justice System and the take over of the Civil Rights (ie Voting Division)

http://tinyurl.com/yuhnh3

Seriously, I think your maps are just about spot on the mark. You see our growth states exactly (I mean exactly) as I do.

Now, since you are on a roll, Magic Rat...what would the map look like our ticket were Obama/Clinton?

You really are good at this.

I see this:


From 2004 we pick up Iowa and Ohio, which is enough to win by 9 electoral votes. But it's by no means a landslide or a mandate. I think it's obvious Clinton on the ticket, anywhere, is poison.

Actually this is the bare bones map for our party and I'm glad to see that you, too are not taken with the fool's gold of Florida.

Do you really think Hillary would hurt the ticket this much?

I'm going to think about your map because, all silliness aside, you are a thinker and a calculator. I saw through your fun-loving posts long ago to take you seriously.

I'm not sure that Hillary would hurt the ticket because I would add the votes that she and Obama are winning together in these primaries against all the GOP and I see landslide everywhere. I really see HIllary drawing women to vote. My sister is still going to vote for Hillary in Texas and she doesn't give a damn about what I tell her (Ha!).

Thanks for your taking the time to make these maps.

brings out the rabid Right Wing that would otherwise sit home, being not too fond of McCain.

And in states like Florida, I think that could be the difference.

I think Red State democrats are begging for an Obama/anybody but Clinton ticket.

of the dem ticket. This is the most important election year for the republicans in history ... bar none, period.

A win will give them 3 more judges on the supreme court and that means Roe V Wade gets overturned, marriage amendment, mandatory prayers in school, 'god bless america' printed on everything in sight and all the rest of their whack-job, usual-suspect agenda. The dems will be totally neutered.

Make no doubt about it ... the right will be out in force in November with or without Hillary on the ticket. The scary part is their sheer numbers this time lends itself to the republicans retaking the Senate. Think about that one.

maybe you missed the whole circular firing squad/handwringing that's going on in GOP quarters now. It's not pretty.

With Obama on the ticket, they'll likely stay home.

the wingers will be out in full force ... take bets on it.

We desperately need the Democrat to win in November, be it Hillary or Barack, for the sake of the SCOTUS..

I trust BOTH of them on the SCOTUS...Both Hillary & Barack voted no on Roberts & Ailito & both would make WAY BETTER appointments than John fucking McCain would...

to vote against McCain in their primaries.

He's got the trifecta = Secular + Yankee + RINO.

Ol' W at least had one out of three. :shrug:

I also think that having Hill on the ticket completely steps all over and muddles Obama's message of hope and change, which would also effect independents enthusiasm to some degree.

Either candidate would do better without the other on thier ticket than with the other on their ticket, IMHO.

i didn't give him Texas.

I will guarantee it. I grew up and still live here, and I can tell you firsthand how many people support him here. Both of my parents, long time repubs, are voting for Obama, as are most of their friends. People here in Ks hate Bush just as much as everyone else!

n/t

Kansas has 2 ultra conservative senators (Brownback, & Roberts), that far right social conservative shit sells there....I do think Obama can flip some red states from last time to blue in 2008, but not sure about Kansas...

I was thinking Obama could flip Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, & perhaps Ohio (if they count all the votes this time)...

Never say die. :D

equal winning the GE.
Georgia/SC/NC/MT are not going to the Democrats, nor is Kansas.

The Clinton strategy is a blue states plus one strategy, same as Kerry, same as Gore. Obama represents an everywhere strategy.

Alaska has gone Dem one time ever and that was way back in 1964 the same year as Virginia when Barry Goldwater ran yet you give them both to Obama. Not gonna happen. Then you give most of the south to Obama. Not gonna be. Change happens but not like that.

but obama would win in a landslide

and I think you've got it.

I'd give Hillary Arkansas.

This is my Obama Map.

LA? No way. The Carolinas aren't voting for him either. It may be a closer race, but he isn't winning those places. There simply aren't enough urban, educated whites to put him over the top. GA is a possibility, though, becauase of the large black vote + progressive Atlanta. Arkansas is also a stretch, as is Kansas, who voted for Bush something like 70-30 in '04. Those kind of numbers don't magically flip in 4 years.

Essentially, you are saying it will be a landslide for Obama and a loss for Clinton. I think it will be a tough slog for either candidate, but that John McCain will lose. I don't see a lot of white southern Republicans and Independents voting for either Obama or Clinton. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think that racism and sexism will win out on that one. Clinton will have a tougher time in other states, because of the high negatives she has. Obama's negatives will rise in the general campaign also, as the whisper campaigns and smears begin. We already are getting the "Obama is a secret Muslim" emails. It will get even worse if he is the nominee.

:thumbsup:

good job!

While Hillary might get the power boost she wants, we the people would get nothing.

Just a huge pile of fly over red states.

Kansas, Louisiana, Georgia, and North and South Carolina aren't going blue, period.

West Virginia is an extreme long shot.

And Alaska, that one is still a puzzle to me. They go red for libertarian reasons.

due to a secret libertarian base.

Maybe he's using dog-whistle language that I'm not picking up on, but I do have to say that he CREAMED Hillary in Alaska, Idaho, Utah, inland Washington state, teh hinterlands of Nevada, and other libertarian hidey-holes.

:shrug:

... how disenfranchised the Republicans feel going into November.

If they have their heads down and they're not feeling good about their candidate, and the Dems numbers are still WAY up, we just don't know about the results.

If the base of the rethugs are telling their people to stay home, then all bets are off.

We just don't know what to bank on at this point.

People don't want to talk race or gender, but if the rethugs feel their only way to win this is to hit us w/ the race or gender card, they'll do it. It won't come in the way of an official commercial, but could once again come in the form of push polling and such.

This could really get nasty. I think there are some really racist and chauvinistic people around who bite their tongue unless they're around the right friends at the right time. They don't want to show their colors, but this is going to bring them out into the open.

In many ways it's about time this happen. Time for the roaches to be exposed and for the rest of the country to see them for what they are.

I will admit though ... I'm kind of scared to know just how many of our friends, family, and neighbors are the roaches I'm talking about.

Where do you come up with this shit?
Have you even seen the state by state matchups where McCain beats Obama?

I think your analysis is pretty accurate. Obama can win where the lovely Hillary can't.

That is quite some fantasy you are having. Obama takes Fla? AR? NM?

Maybe if he has Hillary on the ticket with him.

Otherwise all of these states are likely to fall to McCain. McCain knows it, and is already rejoicing!

But I think your Obama map is pretty good. I would take away South Carolina and Alaska, provided Hillary is not the VP candidate in which case I would take away a few more states.

As an interesting side note, it's amazing how many "I'm so smart and you must just be an idiot" replies you've gotten. That kind of cocky attitude is generally displayed by people who, deep down, think all liberals are morons, anyway. Hmm ...

:dem:

-Laelth

:toast:

-Laelth

and I'm not so confident Obama can win South Carolina and Kansas. :(

they are over the edge there...


EDIT: nevermind. i thought u had it blue heh

Because both could win Florida or Ohio.

But the margins would get be narrower, and Democrats in red states would be knocked out of office if Hillary gets the Nomination.

That's the recent statewide relationship to national voting margin. I posted the breakdown on DU beginning in mid 2003. Obviously many Obama supporters are comfortably ignorant of those realities, if they actually expect to compete in states where we would need to win the national popular vote by at least 12-15 points to threaten a chance to lasso some of those states.

I didn't even scan the entire Obama map. When you've got blue paint in places like Alaska, Georgia, Kansas and Montana I basically stop paying attention. Those states are major double digit red on the federal level and nothing in contemporary American politics can alter that.

Here's the question: Does Obama tilt the partisan index against Democrats in vital states like Ohio and Florida? It's an intriguing variable, one that's seldom analyzed. It would be irrelevant if Obama indeed were 5+ points better nationally than Hillary. Give me that in November and I'll take my chances on individual states tumbling our way. But if Obama is even with Hillary's margin, or just slightly ahead of where Hillary would be in relation to McCain, then it's a legit and pivotal question, whether we are forfeiting our greatest opportunity by ignoring how Obama will fare in states with demographics like Ohio and Florida.

We have 2 Dem Senators and a Dem Governor. With the right moves, it can be swung. And as 2000 proves, every state counts.

Way too many variables this far out. We don't even know who each will choose as VP.

I couldn't even take the rest of the map seriously when you had GA, SC, NC, LA, and AK colored blue.

Its just not a statement someone that has their head on straight would make.

Florida? . . . Ohio? . . . Pennsylvania? . . . Wisconsin? . . . I don't think so . . . not after the electronic ballots are "counted" by Republican corporations . . .

"it's not who votes that counts; it's who counts the votes" . . .