NBC: Hillary to gain only 35 delegates if she wins OH and TX by 14%

Anyone catch Russert today (not on Meet the Press- some other show) say that NBC experts had done an analysis that showed that if Hillary beat Obama in both OH and TX by 57-43 then she would only gain 35 delegates on him? Obama's lead in pledged delegates is something like 139 now, and this highlights why both campaigns acknowledge that Hillary won't catch him on pledged delegates without FL and MI.

Hillary won't catch him---EVEN WITH FL and MI.

Something like 613 delegates left... HRC needs 57% of them, and in no poll does she get up to 57%.

POT meet Kettle----Obama will do anything to win.



Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject I love the reaction of Obama when told Kennedy would have to vote for Clinton
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4526958#4526958
4526958, I love the reaction of Obama when told Kennedy would have to vote for Clinton
Posted by bigtree on Sun Feb-10-08 05:39 PM

if the SuperDelegates were apportioned as he said he wants them . . .


Obama said superdelegates should follow the wishes of the voters.

"My strong belief is that if we end up with the most states and the most pledged delegates from the most voters in the country, that it would be problematic for the political insiders to overturn the judgment of the voter," he said.

When it was noted that Sen. Ted Kennedy is one of his superdelegate supporters, even though voters handed Massachusetts to Clinton on Super Tuesday, Obama said, "Well, I mean, we can make arguments back and forth on this."

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/02/09/2008-02-09_hillary_clinton_and_barack_obama_battle_.html

Maybe I can dredge up soemthing I posted a month ago.

He's disgusting.

BTW, that's how this game is being played. One delegate at a time. If Obama had won FL and MI what would you be saying now?

Nothin wrong with Quoting Tim Russert.

:P

Good one!

What do your delegate calculations show?

even though I expect Hillary to win the popular vote there.

And I expect somewhat of an uproar about that when it happens.

although I wasn't even counting caucus allocated delegates in that prediction

It's over a week off... who knows.

Even if he does, though, it probably won't have a huge impact on the delegate math. Though it will help his credibility when angling for superdelegates.

since those were the rules going in, agreed by all parties. Just as I believe the SDs should go with the will of the people rather than overturning the popular and pledged delegate vote.

because I believe in rules.

Asking the supers to vote for him is not against the rules. I'm sure Hillary is asking them to vote for her... in fact, I think she is sending Chelsea to visit with some in one on one meetings. And Bill is calling them as well.

Asking that they not overturn the the pledged delegate counts come convention time is also not against the rules.

Asking that the MI and FL delegates now be seated, after the rules were established by the DNC and agreed to by ALL parties (including Hillary), IS against the rules.

I would be opposed to it if Obama had won those false elections and sought to benefit by them.

If Obama had won Florida and Michigan, I'd be saying that the states broke the agreed upon rules and SHOULD NOT be counted.

I don't recall whether that was after TX/OH or if it included PA.

Or it's not winnable.

I went ahead and looked them up (posted below) in case I was missing the context.

You nailed it!

and pledged delegates are the only ones which should be discussed because superdelegates can and will change their votes as political winds shift.

Even with the superD's she'll be trailing by probably more than 50, probably close to 75, counting supers. She'll be behind 100+ not counting SuperD's.

Lots of SDs are undeclared and I venture to say, lots are going to change camps.

and Michigan, and that the delegates would NOT count toward the total.

Why are MI and FL even being discussed? They don't count. End of story.

any less valid simply because the candidates haven't had an equal shot at manipulating them - they're not pawns! Everybody is talking about what's fair for Clinton or Obama, but where are the advocates for the American voters?

Oh sure there is outrage over the super delegates, a small body of officials that might decide over the "will" of the electorate, but where is the outrage toward the small body, the Florida state legislature, that did decide for millions to move up the date for their election? Where is the outrage over the few DNC officials that did decide for the millions that all the delegates and not the default half should be discounted?

Ohio has 141 pledged delegates, Texas has 193 pledged delegates. 141 + 193 = 334
Hillary would gain about 190 delegates with 57%, and Obama would gain about 144. So, Hillary would have a net gain of about 46.

Unless the proportion of delegates gained does not closely resemble the proportion of popular vote...

on the vote but weighted by how many dems voted in the last election.

This weighs heavily in the north for Obama where voting was high (black vote) and against HRC in the south (latino vote) were turnout was low.

I would imagine that this may have been worked into their analysis as they have been talking about it for a few days now.

almost all African American, they have seven delegates, and it's possible HRC won't even get 15% in that district (which means all 7 would go to Obama). Meanwhile the rest of the districts in the area are four delegates and will split 2-2 in almost all of them.

It's all due to the way that the districts were gerrymandered by the Pubs during the Reagan administration.

I admit, I was paying half-hearted attention because that is ALL they will be talking about Tuesday night. I figured I could catch up as the numbers were rolling in. LOL!

on Burnt Orange Report, on Texans for Obama, and on HuffPo if I remember right, some of them going into excruciating detail on the delegate mapping in TX.

The Texas rules allocate delegates to state senate districts based on voter turnout in 2004 elections. There was huge turnout among black voters and in Austin (a big Obama area) but poor turnout in Hispanic districts in that election. Therefore, the largest black senate district in Houston gets 7 delegates and the largest black district in Dallas gets 6 districts. The Hispanic districts in south Texas only get 4 delegates, and Hillary needs to get more than 62.5% in those districts to avoid a 2-2 delegate split. Plus, Republican gerrymandering has a tendency to put some blacks in each Hispanic district, making it very hard for Hillary to get that magic percentage.

Honestly, if the Obama campaign had designed the Texas system themselves they couldn't have made it any more favorable.

Thus even if Hillary takes the state, if Obama takes the urban (read: black) congressional districts by larger numbers, he can fish out a few more delegates than proportional.

This is, I think, the most likely thing that would be incorporated into the analysis. Thanks to everyone who responded.

But, I predict an Obama win there.

Election Information:
Contest Type: State-run Primary
Election Date: 2008-03-04
Eligible Participants: Open (all voters)
Delegates Awarded in this Contest: 126
Delegates Total: 228
Delegate Allocation Method: Proportional - the candidates are awarded delegates in proportion to the percentage of votes received.
126 district delegates (State Senate districts)
67 at-large delegates are chosen at the State Convention June 6-7
35 unpledged delegates
2 delegates from SD 31
3 delegates from SDs 6, 7, 8, 9, 24, 28
4 delegates from SDs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 11, 12, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 22, 25, 27, 29, 30
5 delegates from SDs 10, 20, 21, 26
6 delegates from SDs 14, 23
7 delegates from SD 13

anything above 40% and the delegates are doled out based on Congressional districts.

The primary doesn't end with TX and OH. There will still be...

Puerto Rico
Indiana
North Carolina
West Virginia
Kentucky
Oregon
Montana
and Pennsylvania!

As a West Virginia voter I'd like to think my vote will count for something.

with the governor having endoresed Obama and putting his machine at his disposal. The other states look good for Obama, though Indiana may be a wash.

You left out Mississippi and Wyoming (and I think South Dakota) which will be huge for Obama.

If neither of them gets to the magic number of votes needed for the nomination, it's going to the convention.

60%+ wins from now until the Convention.

when she, arrogantly, took Obama for granted from the get go.

As LBJ always said "if you want to be in politics, you have to know how to count."

If she wins Texas and Ohio and is viable on pledged delegates she should stay in.

If it's only by 5 points each, it's very possible she LOSES the pledged delegate count in Texas and only has a slight edge in Ohio.

That would still leave her over 100 short of Obama, not what I'd call viable.

In terms of pledged delegates, Obama has a 124 delegate lead currently.

Running a few quick assumptions it is still within the reach of HRC, but looks very very difficult.

If I look only at future pledged delegates (ignoring for the moment the super-delegates and at-large delegates that are chosen at state conventions after the contests are long over) and make the assumption that Wisconsin, Hawaii, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota will split their pledged delegates evenly (and that's a bit of a stretch to assume that) and that HRC will win the pledged contest delegates in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont, Wyoming, Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia, and Kentucky at a combined 60% to 40% rate, she still comes up 4 pledged delegates short of Obama.

Let's say Obama comes out +10 Tuesday in the delegate count, that bumps the total up to 134 delegates. IF she wins both states by 14% (highly unlikely) and Russert is right, Clinton will only be within 89 delegates of Obama -- 49 more than her campaign said she needed to be within after Texas and Ohio. Now there is Rhode Island and Vermont, but I'm not sure she wins both, but let's say she comes out of those two states +10, which is very generous, she'd still be 39 short of reaching the 40 goal (or 79 behind Obama in total delegates).

I think if Hillary wins Ohio and Texas March 4th, she'll come out of Tuesday only +10 on Obama. Which will put her around the same deficit she faces now.