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WTF? ARG has Obama winning Texas and Clinton winning Wisconsin?

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Chasing Dreams Donating Member (294 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 05:15 PM
Original message
WTF? ARG has Obama winning Texas and Clinton winning Wisconsin?
No wonder this board has so many inane opinions and posts. The "professionals" like ARG don't have a clue as to what's going on in America. Is there any doubt among most of us here that Obama wins Wisconsin by 5+ points, and loses while making it close in Texas?

Wisconsin Democrats, Feb 15-16

Clinton 49%
Obama 43%

Texas Democrats, February 15, 2008

Clinton 42%
Obama 48%

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/








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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 05:17 PM
Response to Original message
1. On election eve 2000, ARG had Gore up 10% over Bush in New Hampshire
Bush won by less than 1%.

I've never trusted them since.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 05:18 PM
Response to Original message
2. If you were to invert those results I think you'd be close to the mark.
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 05:18 PM
Response to Original message
3. You're wrong. Obama will win Texas. Can't say what Wisconsin will do.
Wisconsin is probably a toss up, although Obama should win it.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 05:19 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Hey, don't blame him for the poll. He didn't do it.
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Chasing Dreams Donating Member (294 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 05:26 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. That's Right. Don't Blame Me.
I want Obama to win Texas

:applause:
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 05:32 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. Good. You'll be happy when Obama wins Texas. I don't base my conclusions on ARG.
Edited on Sun Feb-17-08 05:32 PM by TexasObserver
Never have, never will. ARG is one pollster viewpoint, and they're all lacking.

I object strenuously to the Texas Credit Union League's "poll" however. Since when do we follow the polls some banking lobby group gets some push poller to do? And yet, they get repeated here as if they're anything but a lobby group shilling for someone who is favorable to their interests.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 05:26 PM
Response to Original message
6. I believe they use a computer call system where responders respond
to a recorded voice that tells them to push button one if . . Its not considered a very reliable polling method
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 05:34 PM
Response to Reply #6
11. Pollsters are Businesses, and this is their HARVEST time.
I am appalled at the methodologies most employ.

Tell me their methodology, and I'll tell you who wins under their polls.
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ExtraGriz Donating Member (405 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 05:31 PM
Response to Original message
7. ARG have an 8+- margin of error
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 05:32 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. + or - 8 makes such a poll ... uh, less than worthwhile? They need a larger sample?
Cross-section of the voting democratic electorate? :shrug:
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Alhena Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 05:33 PM
Response to Original message
10. ARG showed Hillary by 9% in Wisconsin 10 days ago
I expect they just gave their old erroneous polling method that produced the 9% before another try and didn't find much change.

I don't believe the ARG Texas poll favoring Obama and I don't believe the Wisconsin one either.
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insanity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 06:15 PM
Response to Reply #10
21. Plus or Minus 8?
Hahaha, I wonder what the confidence level is? .5?
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City Lights Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 05:48 PM
Response to Original message
12. Has ARG ever been right?
Their track record sucks, IMHO.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 05:53 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. I believe that they have a very good tracking system that is 100% correct
for their invoices and accounts receivable.
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Arugula Latte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. Hah hah!
Good one! :thumbsup:
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Chasing Dreams Donating Member (294 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. Ha!
:toast:
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Hippo_Tron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 06:13 PM
Response to Reply #13
20. LMAO
:rofl:
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GodlessBiker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 05:55 PM
Response to Original message
14. Maybe this is why Clinton left WI to go to TX.
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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 06:58 PM
Response to Reply #14
26. Clinton is in WI till late Monday afternoon. update yourself please
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 05:57 PM
Response to Original message
15. It's ARG. I stopped putting stock in ARG polls a while ago
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Tarc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 06:11 PM
Response to Original message
18. ARG = Anyones Random Guess
Their polls more resemble the result of poo-flinging monkeys and what sticks to the wall, rather than anything remotely resembling scientific validity.
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 06:12 PM
Response to Original message
19. Get thee behind me, polls!
UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!!!!



x(
rocknation
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 06:21 PM
Response to Original message
22. I like the polling samples ARG used
They have whites as 89% of the electorate, blacks as 7% of the electorate and Latinos as 2% of the electorate. Those look correct.

I think this poll is entirely within reason. Can Hillary win the white vote 52-40? Yes she can. And that would be why she would win the state.

Is the 52-40 white vote in favor of Clinton correct? Who knows. But it is entirely within reason.
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DUyellow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 06:30 PM
Response to Original message
23. ARG 2/6-7/08 600 LV HLC 50 (-1) BHO 41 (+2) UND 8(-1)
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catagory5 Donating Member (321 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. I think they got the states....
swapped around. The must mean Obama winning WIS and Clinton winning Texas huh?
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DUyellow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 06:45 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. what are you talking about?
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kipmurr Donating Member (7 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 06:59 PM
Response to Original message
27. Not a chance, Wisconsin is leaning Obama now but *could* flip
Texas is still pretty solidly Clinton.
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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 07:04 PM
Response to Original message
28. ARG sucks. The end.
n/t
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catagory5 Donating Member (321 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-17-08 07:21 PM
Response to Original message
29. What I mean is that ...
Clinton is actually ahead in Texas and Obama is ahead in Wis. They're polls state the opposite.
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