If Obama had not run for President....

Do you think Edwards would have had a chance?

And which candidate do you think would've locked up the black vote?

And Hillary would have the black vote.

Second Question: Clinton, due to her and her husband's long and strong relationship with the African-American community.

I think the Clinton campaign would have collapsed regardless.

I think Edwards would have the black vote.

I think blacks would have started off with Clinton b/c of the name recognition and WJC, but migrated to Edwards b/c of his policies and his story.

I believe Hillary would have defeated Edwards. She would have kept African Americans and Women from Edwards but Obama has been able to hold these groups very effectively.

He's a much better organizer than she is. That's what's putting him over the top.

Hillary would've won the black vote too.

Edwards mighta made inroads in the AA community, but his gathering among the anti-Clinton crowd might've run more southern and rural & even to big labor.

He would not have been able to bring in so many new people as the 40-something Obama has.

It's hard to say what the outcome would have been though. I tend to think he'd have won. People in D.C. thought I was nuts when in 2005 I told them Hillary would not only have a hard time getting the nomination, she would not get it because her rock-hard loyal support tops out at only 30%. An anti-Hillary candidate would emerge, it was obvious to me. I just never expected it to be Obama at the time (2005).

I think that he would have got approx. 1/3 the Black vote due to NOLA and his work there.

but I wanted people to give some analysis.

if he would have won those states, then yes, he would have had a chance.

If not, and if Hillary would have beaten him in Iowa, then, no.

I think Richardson, of all people, would have done a lot better if Obama wasn't in the race, out of all the candidates.

Two superstars were just going to take all the oxygen out of the room.

but he would have been hampered by the fact that he ran in 2004. For some reason, a lot of voters don't want someone who already ran. As for the Black vote I think it would have gone to Hillary.

because like people are saying here Clinton had the clout and name recognition and so they would have been drawn to her right away (as what happened with the "vs Obama" thing). But the problem with Clinton is that, assuming all things remained the same (except Obama didnt exist in this race), she was always disorganized with her management. It's hard to say about how skilled her staff are in this scenerio considering as how at present we know they are horrendous compared to the will-be-talked-about-in-political-classrooms-for-years-to-come Obama crew. Who knows, maybe her staff in tihs alternate scenario would be just ok enough to squeak by.

Edwards message and policies, i believe, fall similar to Obama's and so i think it would have drawn a growing crowd towards him from Hilary...however, because of Obama's oratory skill that is unmatched by any other in this scenerio i think Edwards adoption rate of new voters would be slower, but erosions would be seen in hilary's camp.

Unlike Obama's money-growing tree in his backyard, i doubt Edwards could have enough money to compete against hilary in the same way which would put hilary into a bind that in our reality she is in debt while Obama is in a major surplus....Hilary is only in debt because she was trying to compete at the level of Obama....Edwards would not have been in the same situation and in fact he would have been the one in debt....

So, i believe that although a movement would have occurred in favor of Edwards, i believe his chances would have died on Super Tuesday...Clinton would be the winner.

The black vote would've split.

The anti-hillary vote would've gone to Edwards. Edwards probably would've won Iowa and thus taken the momentum that Obama got. We could've got an actual progressive instead of an empty suit! That is what pisses me off the most about Obama. Had he not run we would've had an actual progressive against Hillary. Now we have Hillary and an even worse Obama. Thanks a lot Iowa!

We lose!

I think Obama has very good potential and personally from what i've seen of Hilary including her horrendous management skills in her own campaign and her obsessive lies against her opponent which ends up dividing her own party making it harder to combat the GOP in unity, i have lost some respect for her....I personally feel Obama is a better direction for your country than Hilary. So, your country got lucky and was saved.

As for Edwards, there is a chance he might be VP to Obama since they have both in the past expressed interest in being running mates of each other (crossing-fingers). And their messages are similar.

And I think Clinton would have gotten most of the black vote.

What's your point?

Just speculating...

Because even if she lost IA and NH her African American supporters in SC would be her firewall...

of corporate power....

Obama and Exelon are not inspirational....

Obama was engineered early on to stop Clinton, but in the long run, he's not going to help progressives....

no one else had a chance against her. Edwards also lacked experience in the political experience AND was part and a reason of a losing campaign. his bad performance in 04 is reason enough not to nominate him.

:hi:

I'm flattered my thread led you to make your first post.

I think it would've migrated to Edwards if he had shown any viability. HRC doesn't really connnect with black voters, imo. She started off with the black vote almost by default b/c of Bill.