my electoral analysis

i'm ranking the states from 0 to 5. 0 means completely safe for *, and 5 is completely safe for Kerry. what do you think?

AL - 0
AK - 0
AZ - 2
AR - 2.5
CA - 4.5
CO - 2.5
CT - 4.5
DC - 5
DE - 4
FL - 2.5
GA - 1
HI - 5
ID - 0
IL - 4.5
IN - 0.5
IA - 2.5
KS - 0
KY - 0.5
LA - 1
ME - 3.5
MD - 4.5
MA - 5
MI - 4
MN - 3
MS - 0
MO - 2.5
MT - 1
NE - 0
NV - 2.5
NH - 3
NJ - 4.5
NM - 3
NY - 5
NC - 1
ND - 0
OH - 2.5
OK - 0
OR - 3
PA - 3.5
RI - 5
SC - 0.5
SD - 0
TN - 1
TX - 0
UT - 0
VT - 5
VA - 1.5
WA - 4
WV - 2.5
WI - 3
WY - 0

I'd say I see him winning all Gore states + NH, NV, WV and OH

If he has to lose one Gore state, it'd probably be Iowa. However, we still win if that happens if he wins the others I predicted.

CT, ME, NJ, MD, and IL should all be 5's!

GA should be a 0! There is no way that we are going to win there.

I see Montana as a 2.5. Though a traditionally Repub state, the Repubs have done ALOT of damage and are looking for change.

:kick:

after all, we have a Rupublican governor for the first time in 30 some odd years. Although he tends to lean more to Libertarian in practice (thank deities for small favours).

In Maryland it will probably be a matter of turnout. Gore won MD in 2004, but not by a huge margin. It was only due to the overwhelming turnout in the major metropolitan centers that offset and overtook the predominantly Republican rural voters. Depending on how the campaigns play out, I might even consider MD at 4 sometime in the future.

he had his fifth highest vote total here, after DC, RI, NY and MA. I put it at a 4.5 because * could potentially win it if he manages a huge landslide, but I hightly doubt that will happen. I say a 5/0 means NO CHANCE, since I don't think a 1984/1964 type landslide is possible today, at least not with this election.

seats are Democratic.

It's a Five!

...all bets are off. Those things have to be banned. JEB is going to have his brown-shirts at every Florida polling site and they will be protecting the programmers so that Kerry can't win. :nuke:

...it appears fairly accurate. By that I mean that 0 and 5 were reserved for solid and likely states with 1-4 being leaners and tossup. As things stand right now, my guess is that Kerry would win the states Gore won and the 5 states he came closest to winning in 2000, for different reasons (FL, NH, MO, OH, NV).

Under the more traditional breakdown here's my list.

Solid Bush (Mountain States/Great Plains/Texas) 76 EV
AK, ID, MT, UT, WY, KS, NE, ND, SD, OK, TX
Likely Bush (Deep South/Rural Great Lakes/Southwest) 91 EV
MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, KY, IN, AZ, CO
Lean Bush (Midsouth) 44 EV
LA, AR, TN, WV, VA
Toss Up 36 EV
MO, OH, NV
Lean Kerry 68 EV
PA, FL, ME, NH, IA, NM
Likely Kerry (Upper Midwest/Pacific Northwest) 76 EV
IL, MI, WI, MN, OR, WA
Solid Kerry (Megalopolis/South Pacific) 147 EV
DC, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, CA, HI

Kerry 291 - Bush 211 - Tossup 36

we have a much better chance in AZ and CO than AL or MS. Those last two should be under Safe Bush if AZ and are Likely Bush.

But I do see them being less at play than the midsouth states. CO in particular is trending away. Nader did well there, but that has more to do with the independent nature of the mountain states, and I doubt much of that would translate back to the Dems. AZ is, a tougher call. The demographics are trending our way and 96 seemed to show that. But 2000, and the latest polling showing Bush doing rather well with Hispanics, has me less optimistic. We could easily lose these states by 10 pts while winning nationally.

he is going to make it very tough for Shrub to steal another one.

we have PA and MI, they have FL and OH. If either side loses one of those states, they lose.

there are other things I'd take issue with as well

but it's leaning democratic. I'd put it in the same category as Washington State. Bush isn't very optimistic about winning here in MI, and instead he's focusing on IA, MN, and WI, where the margin of victory was much smaller. Plus MI has one of highest unemp. rates (around 7%).