BREAKING ARG: Obama leads in Texas by 8, Clinton leads in Ohio by 10

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com

Great news for those of us who can't wait for this primary season to end because it's too stressful. LOL.

ARG Poll: Obama Leads in Texas, Clinton Ahead in Ohio
Two new polls from the American Research Group:

Texas: Obama 50%, Clinton 42%
Ohio: Clinton 49%, Obama 39%

Predicted 11, he won by 17.

That said, everybody underestimated him in Wisconsin.

Every other poll had him winning by only 4-5 points.

....


until, of course, they claim that Texas is a "red" state that doesn't count and move the goalposts again.

:sarcasm:

But I did the delegate math yesterday and Clinton absolutely needs a decisive TX win to have any hope.

This primary will likely be over the night of 3/4.

she can't lose both. Let's see what they say if Ohio starts moving against her, too.

...the other will drop out after two of them have been won.

I have no polling evidence for this; this is simply dmesg's gut feeling.

Univ. Of Cincinnati Poll: Clinton Leads By 8: "The latest Ohio Poll finds Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 47 to 39 percent among likely Democratic primary voters. At this time, an additional nine percent of likely Democratic primary voters intend to vote for John Edwards, who suspended his campaign at the end of January. Two percent of likely Democratic primary voters intend to vote for another candidate, including Ohioan Dennis Kucinich (who ended his campaign for president in January), and four percent are undecided as to how they will cast their vote March 4.

Three issues dominate Democratic primary voter decisions about the 2008 presidential race: the economy/jobs (41%), health care/health insurance (25%) and the war in Iraq/Iraq policy (16%)."

Quinnipiac Poll: Obama Gains on Clinton in Ohio: "Buoyed by a big shift among college-educated voters," Sen. Barack Obama is gaining on Sen. Hillary Clinton, who now leads 51% to 40% among Ohio likely Democratic primary voters, according to a new Quinnipiac poll. Political Wire adds:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/17/ohio-primary-latest-news_n_86925.html

Obama's been a fantastic closer in a lot of primaries.

These results wouldn't surprise me, although I think it's a little closer in both races.

I remember at one point in early 2007, every poll in Iowa had John Edwards leading by a good margin. Minus ARG who had Clinton leading by double digits. And going into Iowa, Hillary had a comfortable lead in the ARG polls. And Barack won, Edwards second, and Hillary third.

except for one that has him ahead. The trajectory in TX is pretty clear.

they showed a big Hillary lead in two polls then one day later showed Obama leading by 10.

They have no idea what's going on.

Do you have the same problem?

But I think they are right on this case, although the margins of victory for each are closer, IMO.

If Clinton continues her scorched earth tactics after that, she should be expelled from the party (along with lieberman for good measure).

They picked up the Obama landslide in the final day and restored my faith in them.

Someone posted an ARG poll with Hillary in the lead, can't remember which state.

And I said the same thing: don't trust them.

It isn't hard to believe Obama could take Texas.

I think Clinton does exceptionally well in Ohio and Rhode Island winning Ohio by 12 and Rhode Island by 17.

Obama, however, will win TX and Vermont the way he's won LA, Wisconsin, Maine, Virginia, with like 59-41 or 60-40 margins.

That will make Clinton's choice on 3/5 very interesting.

There is still one more week left of campaigning left for Obama. Let's see the turnout in Cuyahoga and Franklin County on election night. That right there could give him the state.

I'm interested to see what he does in the numerous "large but small" counties in Ohio like Mahoning, Lake and Trumbull counties. Will he make appearances there?

The Ohio race is far from over. It's clear he's focusing a large amount of his time there. Rhode Island will probably go to Hillary, however.

All of the latest dustups over "plagiarism", flyer outrage, "sky is opening" and "Somoli dress up" will drive Hillary's numbers down. New Englanders are thoughtful, reflective people. Hillary has lost a lot of votes in RI and Vermont the past four or five days.

and behind in Vermont by 20+. He'll win by 30 here.

http://www.decisionanalyst.com/publ_data/2008/obama2.dai

Obama Leading Clinton In Ohio, According to
Feb. 20 and 21 statewide survey by Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst projections indicate that if the election were held today Obama would win 54% to 46% over Clinton. The survey�s margin of error is 3 percentage points, plus or minus, at a 90% level of confidence.


http://www.decisionanalyst.com/publ_data/2008/obama.dai

Obama leading Clinton in Texas, according to
Feb. 20 and 21 statewide survey by Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst projections indicate that if the election were held today Obama would win 57% to 43% over Clinton.


And even recent polls which still show Clinton ahead in Ohio show Obama moving up. These numbers explain the sudden new aggressiveness of the Clinton campaign, imo. All the marbles are on the line right here in Ohio and Texas.