Hillary will call it quits around the Ides of March

And now we must begin to look at the reality of the campaign a week before mini-super Tuesday. Two debates that were cordial and were probably by a large consensus, draws. No one creamed the other....no gotcha moments.


Two debates that did not fundamentally change Obama's momentum in Texas or gave away Clinton 5 to 10 pint lead in Ohio.

At this point it would seem to be we are hearding for an Obama win in Texas by 55 to 45% and a Clinton win in Ohio perhaps marginally closer. No fundamental shift in the dynamics have taken place.

Forget for a second what Bill has said about having to win both. The Clinton problem now is that Obama muight have a substantial delegate win in Texas perhaps about 30 delegates (because of the demographics the politica geogrphy and Obama's organizational prowess in caucuses). And a 55% to 45% win for Clinton could easily wind up being a delegate wash but let say she gets ten more delegates and a PV win in Ohio. The Ohio Net is offset by the delgates Obama gains in Vermont. and RI winds up being a wash. She she has lost ground overall by about 25 or do delegates.


So the streak is broken but she fallls further behind in Delegates.


Momentum and money on Obama's side has not stalled. He is still raking in $40 million a month and there are no more elections until Pennsylvania.

Both campaigns need a vacation and time to reflect.....by the Ides of March...Obama's super delegate deficit will shrink by anther 20 or so.....and at that point she pretty much is going to have to run the table by about 70% or more....And given the remaining contest that is about impossible.

I say Hillary packs it in around 3/15

...but I would LOVE Obama to have one.

and Obama will win the nomination. period.

wouldn't surprise me a bit.

If Clinton doesn't throw in the towel, she's going to become a joke, even if she eeks out a small pv victory in Ohio.

I don't know why people seem to be saying that Hillary will win Ohio. Every poll I see has her support diminishing from last time the poll was done. Also, every poll seems to undercount Obama's support, especially if independents are allowed to vote as they are in Ohio. Ohio has a large black population in the Cleveland area.

Personally I think Obama will win both Ohio and Texas. I concede that he may lose Rhode Island.

proabbly to the point where he amy win the delegate figh buth lose the PV or vice versa. Either way it is going to be a wash which is not what Hillary needs and it will bediffivult to spin a moral victory if she loses in Texas and draws in Texas when she had to win both by large margins,

the 7th of March. I believe she'll lose both TX and OH. Her campaign isn't really sustainable now. If she loses TX, it is so over.

New Hampshire was still when a good number of people were in and it was early. It's late in the game now...and I don't know how many more hats Hillary can pull out of her hat. If she loses either TX or OH, the chorus for her to drop out will grow loud. Obama needs to rejuvenate and prepare for McCain and the Race-Baiting Right.

In Texas all the polling say that he has closed the gap. Some of it has him ahead. In Ohio be has closed the gap but is still behind.

The sorst case scenarion is that whatever nete delgate loss Obama may suffer in Ohio will probaly be offset by a delegat win in Texas And that really is worst case.

Hillary has done precious little to fire up her base to match Obama's strenght in Caucus organization. He should win the Caucuses 65% to 35% so that alone equates to a delegate draw with what Hillary might pick up in Ohio. If you look at the numbers in early voting and the regional breakdown in the SurveyUSA Poll He should have at least a draw (and I am erring on the side of an abundance of caution).

The very worst case is that it is going to be an utter and complete draw on the night even if you factros in Vermont and Rhode Island.

But here is the deal. There are something like 355 delegates at stake. If it is a tie he is 175 delegates closer ans she is still 100 delegate back. SHe might hang in there if PA is in a week but its still over a month away. He has the money and momentum to get all the way through to South Dakota. He has a leg up in the remaining states. He is not going to secure the nomination on pledged delegate alone because there are on 555 left after next Tuesday.

But if you look at the numbers in the most cautious scenario He would get 450 of the remaining pledged delegates. So before he has even startrd counting Super Delegates he is at 1625. Add in the 180 SDs he already has and he is at 1800 to Clinton's 1700 with 370 unpledged SDs left.

So best case scenario for Hillary is that hes is going to need to get 805 of the unpledged super delsgates if she is is foing to draw a tie the rest of the way.


But Obama is not going to get just 450 ot the SDs left. He is easily going to get about 500. So that would put him at 1675 plus the 180 SDs leaves him at about 1850 to Hillary's 1650. At that point she needs 375 of the remaining 370 SD.

I they split the supers she is done. If she some how gets Florida and Michigan Seated It will not be enough to overcome a super delegate draw.

She has to close the gap now and doi it quickly to establish momentume and cash to close the exisiting delegate gap. If she loses Texas it is over.

democrats to get back together and beat back the Republicans.

Hillary's critics like to 1) make false accusations against her, 2) read her mind, and 3) make wrong predictions about her. So THAT'S the politics of hope!

but she will stay in all the way to the convention. I don't blame her at all. She believes she is the better choice and this is an extremely important election considering the winner will have to deal with the horrible mess * has left us in.


Texas is Obama country. VIVA OBAMA!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU