Hillary is behind by about 157 pledged delegates right now.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22419475Assuming a best-case scenario for Hillary where everything breaks right for her, here's what could happen (courtesy of Chris Bowers at Openleft.com):
March 4Ohio: Clinton wins by 7%, nets about 11 delegates
Texas: Tie popular vote, Obama nets about 9
Rhode Island: Clinton wins by 13%, nets 5
Vermont: Obama wins by 20%, nets 3
March 8Wyoming: 12 delegates, Obama should net at least 2
March 11Mississippi: 33 delegates, Bowers has Obama net 3, but I can't imagine it not being higher.
So on March 4 she would gain 4 delegates. But those would be wiped out in the next seven days, with only two large states left to vote: Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
April 22Pennsylvania: 158 delegates, Bowers shows that if Clinton wins by 5%, she nets 8 delegates
May 3Guam: 4 delegates
May 6North Carolina: 115
Indiana: 72
May 13West Virginia: 28
May 20Oregon: 52
Kentucky: 51
June 3Montana: 16
South Dakota: 15
June 7Puerto Rico: 55
This is, of course, just about the best case for Hillary in every state. From March 4 thru April 22, Hillary will have gained 7 delegates, cutting Obama's lead to 150.
The calendar after Pennsylvania is not favorable to her; only West Virginia and Kentucky seem good.
A big problem for Hillary is that there is seven weeks between March 4 and Pennsylvania. I can't imagine the Gore/Pelosi group and other superdelegates allowing Hillary to continue attacking Obama for seven weeks unless she has a very strong showing on March 4. They will let her know that they don't want Obama to have to spend almost two months turning Pennsylvania into a large-scale Iowa instead of getting ready for the general. If Pennsylvania was only a couple of weeks after March 4 the supers might not mind the campaign continuing, but seven weeks is just too long a time period when it appears Obama's lead is insurmountable (barring, of course, any major scandal, and I don't mean "plagiarizing" or not holding any subcommittee meetings).
Hillary's campaign gave Obama too many states without even putting up a fight, giving him a large percentage of the delegates. Obama contests every state, not allowing Hillary to run up big margins in net delegates. Even a great showing in California only netted her about 44 delegates, and Cali has almost as many delegates as Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania combined.
Hillary's fifteen-state strategy simply got overwhelmed by Barack's fifty-state strategy. I'm staying with my prediction that, under pressure from the supers ready to move to Obama in large numbers, she will drop out of the race on March 6.