BREAKING: CSpan/HoustonChronicle-Reuters Poll: 44-42 Clinton lead in Ohio/Obama 48-42 in TX

Ohio:

Clinton-44%
Obama-42%

Texas:

Obama 48%
Clinton 42%

Will post more details shortly. I subscribe so I get this service after 1 am ET while it won't be released until tommorrow to the public.

Pollster John Zogby: Ohio is very tight for the Democrats and is a throwback to the earlier Clinton-Obama races. Clinton leads among Democrats, women, voters over 50, and everywhere outside the three big cities. She also leads among Catholics, voters in union households, and moderates. Obama leads among voters under 50, especially those under 30, and among liberals.

“But the most telling numbers are those among early deciders vs. late deciders. Among those who made up their minds ‘more than a month ago’, Clinton leads 63% to 37%. Obama leads but margins as big among those who made up their minds less than a month ago, a week ago, and within the past few days. In the same vein, Clinton leads by 6 among those who have already voted.”

In Texas, Obama has big leads among independents, men, voters under 65, African Americans, and voters who have decided within the last month. Clinton leads with Catholics and voters over 65.

By most accounts, Clinton needs knockout blows in the March 4 states to catch up with Obama among pledged delegates. As of today, these are close races, a fact which appears to help Obama maintain his edge with delegates.

and his brother is a partner in the polling company.

I just dont understand how it helps that his brother is an Obama superdelegate.

if you fuck up a major state in a 23 point "error" in favor of the candidate your partner/brother is a superdelegate for, people are not going to think highly of your credibility.

And it wasn't just the one poll. IT was three or four in a row, showing Obama "gaining' and then "pulling away" - all put up in successive BOLD HEADLINES by Drudge.

he simply got the numbers wrong in california, very wrong. He may be wrong here too, but he may be right. I personally think he is right, just because this is about where I predict it to finish. I said earlier tonight I think he wins by seven in Texas and loses by 4 in OH

but I don't think Zogby is reputable or honest.

If so, your Hot. GObama

I Kid...I kid

:spank:

But he's nailed every other race this year except for CA.

because if it is, it's useless propoganda.

but so did Rasmussen, Suffolk and the Field Poll.

hope they are close.

+13 in California.

SurveyUSA and Rasmussen both have him up by 4. I think that's more likely than 7.

I'd like to know.....if you know. :)

Any reports from the ground from DUers in TX and OH?

The Democratic Party surveys in Ohio included 708 likely voters, while the Texas survey of Democrats included 704 likely voters. Both surveys were conducted Feb. 26-28, 2008, and carry margins of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

The number of undecided is astonishing.

I don't care what he says. He has no credibility at all.

These are TX. Let's assume that the female vote is 59% in Texas and the Hispanic vote is 30%. I'm not good at numbers but does that change the math? Probably not since he leads with TX women I guess huh.

Party AgeGroup AgeGroup-B
Total Democratic Republican Ind/Unenrolled 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ 18-24 25-34 35-54 55-69 70+
% % % % % % % % % % % % %
Hillary Clinton 41.7 46.1 24.7 29.4 41.0 38.6 38.2 52.2 43.7 38.2 37.6 41.5 54.1
Barack Obama 48.2 47.6 40.5 52.2 53.9 51.1 51.4 33.2 56.3 54.8 50.5 48.7 31.1
Michael Gravel .4 .3 2.3

.3 .7


.9


Someone else 2.7 1.1 25.3 3.3
2.5 3.9 3.4
.9 3.1 3.8 2.8
NS 7.0 4.9 7.3 15.2 5.1 7.3 5.7 11.1
6.1 7.9 6.0 12.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0





Gender Race Already voted
Total Male Female White Hispanic AfAmer Asian Other Yes No/NS
% % % % % % % % % %
Hillary Clinton 41.7 37.5 45.4 45.8 54.9 7.5 40.9 49.8 42.0 41.8
Barack Obama 48.2 49.5 47.0 43.6 33.1 84.9 59.1 48.1 51.9 45.8
Michael Gravel .4 .3 .4 .5 .4


.3 .4
Someone else 2.7 3.7 1.9 4.9 2.0


2.6 2.8
NS 7.0 9.0 5.3 5.2 9.5 7.5
2.0 3.3 9.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0



5000. All Votes- Democratic-TX
Region Income
Total Dallas Houston West Central South East <$25K $25-35K $35-50K $50-75K $75-100K $100K+
% % % % % % % % % % % % %
Hillary Clinton 41.7 32.8 33.7 47.4 40.3 66.7 38.2 51.8 38.6 45.5 41.5 34.7 33.9
Barack Obama 48.2 59.3 61.3 42.2 49.0 19.3 49.6 39.0 57.1 46.2 47.1 54.2 55.7
Michael Gravel .4

1.2
1.1 .5

.7

1.4
Someone else 2.7 2.8 2.0 4.9 .4 4.5 4.4 .3 1.8 1.7 5.8 2.1 3.4
NS 7.0 5.1 3.0 4.3 10.2 8.3 7.3 8.9 2.5 5.9 5.5 9.0 5.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

14% is HUGE

14% is really a lot. We'll see where this is monday. I imagine that the number of undecideds will drop by then. :shrug:

He has Obama winning 85 percent of the African American Support, which is where it probably will be, while he has her with 55% of the Latino vote.

idk, he may be undersamplng latinos....i think thats what happened in tx.