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Online Election Spreadsheets - Projected Delegate Allocation Based on Current Poll Numbers

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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 09:15 PM
Original message
Online Election Spreadsheets - Projected Delegate Allocation Based on Current Poll Numbers
Edited on Sat Mar-01-08 09:16 PM by jefferson_dem
I have stumbled upon this really cool link, which computes a projected delegate allocation tally given the most recent poll numbers. Much more too, including bunches of charts and graphs. It looks like it's routinely updated so it might be worth a bookmark.

By the way, the latest projection for Tuesday's contests is a net gain of six delegates for Hillary. Details in image below.



LINK HERE ---> http://www.editgrid.com/user/nl08/PDMargin

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Yael Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 09:19 PM
Response to Original message
1. I don't think this takes into account the Texas proportional allocations
It looks like a straight split.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 09:24 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. Right.
It looks like the author works with a less-sophisticated proportional delegate allocation formula using poll numbers and doesn't consider the TX caucuses or Congressional district vote, etc. Since the RCP average is about dead-even, it predicts an almost equal allocation of delegates to Hillary and Obama.
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HooptieWagon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 10:29 PM
Response to Reply #1
8. True
And b/c of the Texas method of awarding delegates, HRC could even win a close popular vote, and still lose by 20 or 30 delegates.
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adoraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 09:19 PM
Response to Original message
2. very interesting, would be nearly impossible to pull that off
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cbayer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 09:20 PM
Response to Original message
3. Thanks for that.
What a horse race!

I am loving just observing the behavior of supporters of one camp or another as the pendulum swings back and forth.

There will be some fascinating books after this is all done and I think it will radically change the way we view primary politics.

And I am loving every minute of it.
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 09:26 PM
Response to Original message
5. Six delegates...Obama will wipe most of that out in Wyoming
and tip the scales again in his favor once Mississippi votes on 3/11.

The only way she gets the nomination is through the supers, in which case it won't be worth having.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 09:29 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Six isn't anywhere close to what she needs.
My sense is that six is a best case scenario for her right now.

If she doesn't come out with a net gain on Tuesday (at the very least), she cannot justify staying in. Period.
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Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 09:38 PM
Response to Original message
7. Get ready for the Clinton Supporter Spin of this.
They know that the only thing that can happen now is her to win by 20 percent or so to stay viable.

I have no wish to keep up another fucking month of this crap leading to the next big state. I hope this is the last one before she exits.

Clinton supporters. I hope you will just try to accept this and move on to the GE. The republicans have been watching all this and know what levels of scum they must reach now. This will be known as one of the nastiest elections in US history and I hope you can move away from your fears of Obama and change to face them.


I will admit that it is too late to make any calls for her to exit before this final decision. She had her chance and now must face this. Maybe it is the only way to finally prove to us all that this race is over.
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