Predictions...?

I have this sneaking suspicion that Senator Clinton is going to win in both Texas and Ohio tomorrow. The numbers are all over the place and thus offer no logical basis for my hunch (and as Josh Marshall noted today, so many polls with such wildly disparate results means someone's polling shop is gonna wind up doing the "I'm With Stupid" dance next to the folks from ARG on Wednesday morning), but I just have this sense. Oh, and I voted for Senator Obama in the primary, so there's no homer pro-Clinton DNA in my hunchinations. Just have a feeling.

So, what say you?

Call it. :)

and, I agree with you about Senator Clinton.

I shat my pants already tonight, just to have it out of the way tomorrow.

Ew. I actually said that.

:P

He's such a baby. :eyes: The REAL DUers get PMs from Skinner all the time, so it's no great shakes.

Isn't that when only Skinner can post?

Try to keep up.

:P

thats wishful thinking on your part

:*

some who loose may leave for a while , but we the old members will be right back fighting for the democrat party, we aren't fly by night, it my candidate or no candidate...we win some we loose some, but we always manage to clean up the mess left by republicans.

You know you are, too. That's the fun part.

:crazy:

It's right twice a day.

You keep trying for that first one, tho. You're better than my busted watch.

:P

;)

Hillary will win this thing.
Yes she will!

momentum is finally slowing for BO, mostly because I had expected him to be much further ahead with outspending her 2-1 and all. Maybe the start of the vetting has changed people's minds.......or maybe people just want a choice!!

Maybe Obama fatigue has set in, hope, change, hope, change, hope, change................................................................................................

posting here tomorrow.

politics of "HOPE!""""""""""""

will have an answer for ya!

:9

politics of "HOPE!""""""""""""

I am amazed that people are spinning losing double digit leads in only two weeks as a surge in momentum, merely because she managed to stop the bleeding.

You're the best! Your posts always make me feel good, without being contentious toward the opposition. (Wish I could say the same for myself }()

Anyway, :yourock: :hug:

contested battles were pretty close to my predictions.

So far this election, Obama has done better than the polls almost every time. (CA and NH are only exceptions, I believe, and those were only by about a point)

But I am not getting my hopes up THAT high... yet!

Go Hill!

and jinx the whole deal.

*now, if I can just find my lucky McGovern for president t-shirt*

Right next to my Dean '04 button.

KIDDING Kidding kidding.

;)

Granted it was my mom's since I was only 8 at the time.

Even though Gravel and Mercer are still in it, I think DU will finally take a stand and announce what everyone should see as the presumptive nominee.

Oh yeah, and fuck Walken!

GO MERCER!!!! All three!!!!!

I still think he will pull it out in TX

Hillary wins Ohio 52-48
Obama wins Texas 51-49
Obama wins Vermont 69-31
Obama wins Rhode Island 51-49

I just pulled these numbers out of my ass, but for whatever reason, I'm usually pretty close with these.

Close, but Obama pulls it out. Obama gets the support in the highly populated north Texas area and the major cities. I'm seeing it, and living it.

I think the election is going to get real ugly down the stretch and maybe to the convention. This has an 1980 feel about it.

And it's Hillary's night otherwise.
We shall see.

:)

Clinton narrowly wins Ohio and Rhode Island. Obama nets 10+ delegates.

But Clinton will claim a victory and solider on.

This is going to Puerto Rico, folks.

...about how I see it playing out too

I find it interesting that more people tend to show up when he speaks vs when she does and I am referring to few times that they have given a speech in the same building, but obviously at different times. This tells me volumes.

Obama takes the rest.

let's say 51% to 49% but has significant margin of delegates.

Ohio will go to Hillary by at least 8 to 10% and Vermont will be a total landslide for Obama.

All in all, he will increase his delegate lead over her.

And someone will get more of them.

(I Think Obama is going to win Texas and do very well in Ohio)

Men, independents, African-Americans, and young voters will give him large margins. He will win Texas in the popular vote by five points. He will win it by taking Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Austin by large margins.

Ohio--Yeah, Hill will take it but not by ten points more like five or six.

RI--Obama will be closer than anybody thinks. He may even win it.

VT--Obama will win with better than 60%


Now lets say Obama loses the popular vote in Texas narrowly--he still would win the delegates with his totals in the big cities and what he gets in the caucus.

Ohio for Clinton, Texas just barely for Obama. After Clintons negative campaign lately, the Party will want to end this as Richardson said.

Welcome to DU!

Thanks for the welcome. I've been no and off this site since 2004, used to post under kerry2win.

yourself!

since the debate. Joe Klein says Catholic pndits dislike her. Barack gets a peculiar question about Louis Farrakhan, of all people. Canada releases misleading communications. She's geting more media airtime. Now, he's the black man you can't trust with national security.

Who's running psy-ops? And why?

Hillary by 5% in R.I.
Obama by 5% in Ohio.

And that's the truth.

and I'm an Obama supporter.

The polls have been wrong on Obama every time.

Wild card: Limbaugh encouraging all his crazed followers to vote for HRC in the "Democrat" primary.

Me: Obama wins TX by 8%, wins squeaker in OH.

But who the hell really knows? It'll be interesting no matter what...you can take that to the bank.

Obama takes Texas 51-47, cleans up in delegates
Clinton takes Ohio 51-49, delegates tied
Obama takes VT handily, 71-29
Obama upsets in RI, 51-49

Obama pads delegate lead by 30.

Texas is in a dead heat. I live here and I can tell you it's NUTS! :crazy:

If Hillary pulls it out here it won't be by much. Ohio, RI, and VT are states that I can only watch through the eyes of those who live there, but the Lone Star state, nawwwww...it's gonna be mighty close. Caucases will put Obama over the top I think.

that stupid is already here

Clinton will declare herself the winner.

We'll see.

The worse the weather, the better for Obama.

Texas: Obama by 2.

Ohio: Hillary by 1.

:dem:

:P

Ohio: Clinton +9
Vermont: Obama +21
Li'l Rhodey: Clinton +12

How is that for uncommittal?

:hi:

You ARE a witch!

:P

:P

Witches is awesome. :D:thumbsup:

Clinton has yet to defeat Obama in delegates on any primary or caucus day this year. I doubt that will change.

Texas - Obama 54-Clinton-46
Ohio - Obama 51-Clinton-49
Vermont - Obama 58-Clinton-42
Rhode Island - Clinton 55-Obama-45

Texas - Obama by 4
OH - Clinton by 6
RI - Clinton by 7
VT - Obama by 16

Either way, not anything close to the 60/40 splits she needs to make up the ground from here on out.

this one we'll have to watch, its not as close as the MSM wants us to believe.

Oh no.....its as a fore gone conclusion as it can be.

Its all showboating now....

Followed by thousands of hours of furious punditry on what the ramifications are, and a long and vicious flame war in GD:P, at least 5 tearful GBCW's and 8 TS's.

I don't think she will win Texas

im hopeful about texas

Go out and buy bottled water, and stuff you can eat without cooking like candy bars and bags of Cheetos. Be prepared for DU to shutdown!!

Ohio, my beloved state: Clinton by 2.
Texas: Obama by 4
Rhode Island: Clinton by 5
Vermont: Obama by 20

Obama will gain 10-12 delegates

Is there a pool? What will I win??? :D

He'll pick up maybe 5,6 in Texas, the rest scattered from the other 3 states. Not very much, but then he doesn't need very much... he just needs to gain and keep up the pressure.

Obama remains up in the delegates, but the momentum surge, such as it seems, is enough to keep Hillary in. I don't think there will be any concessions tomorrow night or Wednesday--this race is still marching on beyond March 4th.

Not sure why I feel that way, especially since it seems Hillary's been regaining some traction, but I just can't help thinking that when it comes time for people to actually rush out to the polls, that he's simply going to get more there than her.

Personally though, I want her to take both by legitimate margins, and show that she's still in the fight and ready to make a comeback. I think that would be exciting. But don't trust anything I say anyway, cause I'm all over the map. See, even though I just said that 'think that would be exciting' statement, there's also a part of me that would breath a huge sigh of relief if Obama wins handily tomorrow, thereby basically burying Hillary's campaign and hopefully ending up with his officially being recognized days afterwards as the nominee. The primary process is getting to be a bit burned out, and I'm really kinda looking forward to the GE battle and our victory in November. So I don't know if I'm comin or goin or how I truly feel about all of it right now, other than that I'm posting while I'm really, really, tired.

:evilgrin:

But I think she will have fewer delegates at the end of the night. I think that Obama will get more in TX and VT than Hillary will get in OH and RI. (delegate difference)

I have nothing to base this on, of course, other than my instincts and a long history with Texas, my second home after California.

HC BO
Texas(P) 53 46 Clinton +7
Texas(C) 48 51 Obama +3
Ohio 56 42 Clinton +14
Rhode 51 48 Clinton +3
Vermont 64 35 Obama +29

Delegate count: Hillary +5

Media: Hillary is the :puffpiece: :puffpiece: :puffpiece: :puffpiece: :party:(((WINNER))):party: :puffpiece: :puffpiece: :puffpiece: :puffpiece:
Obama "can't close the deal," "downward slide," "end of the Road,"

DU: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke::nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke::nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke::nuke: :nuke:

Reality: Obama's position as front runner even stronger. Hillary has less contests to make up the same amount of ground. She will have to win 65%+ of ALL remaining delegates... With strong Obama states coming up.

I've mentioned that on MyDD and elsewhere for the past week or so. Win or lose, I think the odds of slightly worse than 50/50 is a value investment. It's based on Obama's overall strength and momentum but IMO it's somewhat misapplied to Ohio demographic realities.

I've been blatantly wrong on many aspects of this primary season but at least the one calendar year 2008 actual wager I made was a big winner, Hillary to take California. John Zogby provided a dollarly gift via his bizarre polling in that state, which shifted the Intrade price. This time I don't pretend it's a big a bargain, nor a certainty. Hillary's voters were at equal motivation on February 5th in California, but this time they may be discouraged and stay home. Obama can definitely win a squeaker but overall I like my chances, particularly at basically even money. I love having the lead and force the other side to run me down.

But I have no doubts that the people will speak in numbers too big too deny that Obama will be our next president..

:eyes:

lol

do not apply for a job as a pyshic. You evidently do not have that talent. Here in PA the people I have spoken to think Hillary sees herself as this nomination is owed to her because of her name. I am also hearing a lot of repugs also going for Obama.

What will be curious is the aftermath

Texas: Clinton by 3-5%
Rhode Island: Clinton by 10-15%
Vermont: Obama by 12-15%

Bank it.

:)

by 4-5 points, Hillary taking Ohio by 3-4 points...

I know of 1, yes 1 person who is voting for Hillary, I converted 3 to Obama over the past 6 months. I also know several Repubs who are voting for Obama not only today, but in the GE over McWobble....( Repubs who will never vote for Hillary )

:kick:

Ohio's going to be a squeaker. I'm leaning Obama 50.5 to Hillary 49.5, AFTER the recount.

Texas Obama 55, Hillary 45

Rhode Island Hillary 52, Obama 48

Vermont Obama 65, Hillary 35

:D

Count on it!

That's my prediction.

smooth as glass.
If Hillary wins it's because of Diebold or voter suppression.

:)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4897190&mesg_id=4897190

Not bad, I should say.