Detailed predictions of tomorrow's races

I’m not going to do delegate breakdowns because that would be too time-consuming, and I can’t begin to figure out Texas’s delegate allocation system.

Rhode Island

The Democratic primary electorate here is made up of white working class Catholics, many of whom are unionized. These are Hillary voters. There are a lot of college students in RI (Obama voters), but many of them are not RI voters. Brown University, for example, draws from all over the nation. There is not a large black population in the state. Nor did the state see a lot of campaigning. If there is not much campaigning going on, voters will just vote for Hillary because, well, who else is there? She’s the name they know. Barack who?

Prediction

Clinton 56%
Obama 43%

Vermont

Ben and Jerry’s liberalism. It’s hard to think of a state more tailor made for Obama than this one.

Prediction

Obama 66%
Clinton 33%

Ohio

This is one Hillary firewall that appears to have held. Give Obama credit for moving the numbers and closing the gap, but I think he will fall short. As good as the Obama ground game is in Ohio, Hillary’s is almost or equally as good. Combine that with the establishment support she has, and the edge she seems to have in Appalachian counties, and I think she squeezes it out. Obama will do well in the Big 3 cities, college towns like Athens and Bowling Green, while Hillary wins the Appalachian counties, rural Ohio, the suburbs around Cincy and the mid-sized factory towns. I think the Cleveland suburbs come out as a wash.

Prediction

Clinton 53%
Obama 46%

Texas Primary

It’s hard to tell if there is any late movement in the polls for either candidate, but I am inclined to give the edge to Obama. I think he will be able to put together the right demographic coalition to come out just a little bit ahead. I believe the demographics will be: 22% black, 30% Hispanic and 48% white and other. This is assuming a large Hispanic and black turnout. I don’t see the Hispanic turnout going any higher than 30%, and in fact the number may be a little lower, which hurts Hillary. I think those groups break down as follows:

Black: Obama 86%, Clinton 13%
Hispanic: Clinton 65%, Obama 34%
White and Other: Clinton 55%, Obama 44%

I see Hillary sweeping the Rio Grande Valley, where the large number of poor Hispanics are a rich source of votes for her. The Democratic primary voters in Ector and Midland counties are mostly Hispanic and pro-Hillary. I think Obama will poll better with more affluent Hispanics who are more likely to live in Austin, Houston, San Antonio or Dallas. Obama wins big margins in black wards in Houston, East Austin, and South Dallas. Obama also wins the whole city of Austin and Travis County by a big margin and polls well in the Austin suburbs in Williamson and Hays counties. I’m inclined to think that Hillary takes the Hill Country (not many white Democrats, but some Hispanic Democrats). Hillary wins San Antonio. Dallas and Houston will be big for Obama, and I think the suburbs around those counties (Collin, Denton and Dallas counties) will be won by a Obama narrowly, with Hilary winning in Tarrant County (Ft. Worth). I think Obama wins narrowly in Jefferson County (Beaumont), while Hillary wins in Galveston County. I think Obama wins in the Houston suburbs in Harris, Montgomery and Fort Bend counties, but not by a lot. Rural East Texas I think leans toward Hillary. Obama wins Brazos County (A&M students), while Lubbock County will be a wash between the Texas Tech students and blacks (Obama) and the Hispanic voters there (Hillary).

If any Republicans vote in this primary, I can only see that benefiting Obama. I think he wins their votes 2-1. For every Republican who is heeding the advice of Rush Limbaugh to vote for Hillary, I think there will be two Republicans who vote for Obama because they either like him, or have the misguided belief that he will be easier for McCain to beat.

Prediction

Obama 50.2%
Clinton 48.8%

Texas Caucus

While I think Obama will win this, I think some people are overestimating his margin of likely victory. Team Hillary has been preparing for the caucuses, even if not as well as Obama’s campaign. I think Hillary may have trouble attracting turnout at these caucuses because her base of downscale voters is more likely to have to work on a Tuesday night, or would be unable to find child care. Affluent Obama voters may not have that concern. But I also think that after a string of thumping defeats in caucuses, the Hillary campaign seems to finally understand their importance.

Prediction

Obama 55%
Clinton 44%

...although, your reasoning seems sound.

I can't remember which poll or post it was, but I remember seeing some numbers today suggesting some closing of the gap in Rhode Island.

today - tons of negative mailers, negative robocalls. I wish she would go away. I don't know how much it will move the numbers.

her and take a minute to imagine what even four years of her blame game tactics would be like. I find these last few days just exhausting here in Ohio. Peace, Kim Hussein

like predictions on two Congressional seats: Kucinich in Ohio and Ron Paul in Texas. I've read that both are "in trouble."

:kick: