RuralVotes predicts these delegate allocations for tomorrow: VT (O+5), RI (H+5), OH (H+7), TX (O+27)

That's right! RuralVotes_The Field predicts a net gain of 20 delegates for Obama.

Click on the links below for details on how they arrived at these numbers. These analyses should also serve as handy desk references as the results roll in tomorrow.




Vermont: Likely a +5 Delegate Lead for Obama


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Rhode Island: Likely a +5 Delegate Pick-Up for Clinton


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Re-Do of Ohio Delegate Count Predictions: +7 Delegates for Clinton


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A Phone Will Ring at 3 am: +27 Texas Delegates for Obama


http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/

UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!!!!



x(
rocknation

Almost as much as I love Obama delegate wins! lol.

Thanks for posting this!

to paraphrase another Clinton

What would the popular vote have to be for him to get a win in TX like that?

which areas of the state he wins, and how well he does in the caucuses.

It's who turned out where that matters, and who caucuses.

He is gonna come away with more delegates from TX just because of these facts, even if the popular vote is close.

Just one scenario...but it's one supported with some hearty evidence. They are claiming that the 3am ad has backfired on Hillary.

...

With just 53 percent of the vote – my conservative estimate – Obama will pick up a net gain of 16 delegates from the daytime primary vote, and, at minimum, a net plus of 11 delegates in the evening caucuses (although that is a conservative estimate), for a total advance of 27 delegates in Texas on March 4.

http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=822

I won't be suprised if one candidate gets at least 27 net from Texas.

Since Hillary Clinton and Obama are tied in the polls for Texas, I'm not predicting which one would pick up over 27 delegates from there.

I can now go to sleep in a much better mood. That says it all.

Welcome to DU! :hi:

...and Happy Voting Tomorrow!

it will, realistically, do her no good.

and when factoring in the caucus, it's highly unlikely she'll get anywhere near a net 20 delegates.

but well, the maps are nice and there is good reasoning in there. Al actually went to TX, so he may actually know what he is talking about there.

... seeings how the hillbots have such a problem with basic math.

RI and VT offset each other, TX primary offsets OH primary, and then Obama cleans up in the caucus. The biggest issue I see here is that its going to give Clinton an "out" for claiming victory. Clinton will be able to continue the argument that "undemocratic caucuses" are the root of Obama's delegate advantage. The big win will be OH, and losing the delegate count once again will be brushed aside.

It's all a perceptions game at this point. Obama could net only 1 delegates tommorow, but if he just won Ohio and Texas, it'd be over. Conversely, he could net 30 or more and as long as Hillary wins either Texas or Ohio, we're going to Pennsylvania. It's sad, really.

I"d love to see a better outcome for Obama in Ohio, but evaporating Clinton's 20-point lead has been nothing short of miraculous.

We'll see how it all shakes down tomorrow. My gut tells me it will be closer in Ohio... and wider in Texas. :-)

Since the super delegates will NOT overturn the pledged delegates, it is safe to assume that whoever wins the majority of the pledged delegates wins the nomination. (Discounting Edward's 26 delegates) The magic number is 1614 PD's. (50%+1)

(Per CBS) Obama 1,192 and Clinton 1,035 (With 19 still not delegated)

Adjusted Totals:
Obama 1,201
Hillary 1,045

Assuming ruralvotes.com is correct... and Obama is +20 the new totals are:

Obama 1,418 only 196 PD's needed or 34.6%
Hillary 1,243 only 371 PD's needed or 65.5%

Daunting task for Hillary to catch up. With 12 contests(566 Delegates) left...with Obama strong in 6:

Oregon
Montana
Wyoming
Mississippi
South Dakota
North Carolina


Side note: the only contest where Hillary has received 65.5+ was Arkansas.

:kick:

Thanks!

David