Texas preview: Demographic and county level analysis. Where are the Obama and Clinton Strongholds?

My TX state demographic analysis:
Texas (228 delegates)
Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, percent, 2006: 35.7% Much more than national average (++Clinton)
Black persons, percent, 2006: 11.9% Less than national average (+Clinton)
Persons 65 years old and over, percent, 2006: 9.9% Less than national average (+Obama)
Bachelor's degree or higher, pct of persons age 25+, 2000: 23.2% Less than national average (+Clinton)
(Overall advantage: Strong Clinton)

However, Obama has been cutting into the Clinton base voters for which the above assumptions are based. For example, Obama's support among working class democrats has improved in recent elections. In Wisconsin, for example, he won among voters with no college degree 56% - 43%.

Tx race and geography:





Obama strongholds:

Harris County (Houston) has a significant African American population (19.0% - 7.1% higher than state percentage) and Latino population (38.2% - 2.5% higher than state percentage). Given that Obama tends to do better among blacks than Clinton does among Latinos these advantages may cancel out. However, Harris co Texans are also more likely to be educated (3.7% higher than state percentage) and is slightly younger (2.2 fewer folks over 65). Additionally, Zogby internals indicate that "Obama continues to lead in the Dallas and Houston areas."

Dallas County has a significant African American population 21.1% - 9.2% higher than state percentage) but again also has a significant Latino urban population (37.7%). Like Houston Dallas co is also more educated and younger than the rest of the state.

Travis County (Austin) is highly educated and young. It is more white than the other urban counties.

East TX rural counties might be a place where Obama will do well as indicated by Zogby's polling: "But in the key swing area of east Texas, Obama has surged into a tie with Clinton. While he trailed her 45% to 38% just a day ago, it was Obama 45%, Clinton 44% in that area at the end of yesterday’s polling, but the numbers in that region have been volatile." In addition, note from the maps above that there are many counties in east TX that have significant African American populations. For example, Jefferson County is 33.7 percent African American, the highest co percentage in the state. This includes the city of Beaumont with a population of 112,434 and an African American population of 45.8%.

Clinton Strongholds

Bexar County (San Antonio) has a million and a half people 57.2% of which are Latinos. This county is also slightly less educated and slightly older.

Southern Tx has huge concentrations of Latino voters. Hidalgo, Cameron, Webb, and El Paso counties have significant populations and are more than 80% Latino.

Population map:


TX counties with very high male to female ratios:
Concho County TX has 181 Males per every 100 Females.
Mitchell County TX has 159 Males per every 100 Females.

TX counties with very highly educated individuals:
Collin County (North Dallas suburbs) 47.3 percent of individuals with Bachelor's degree or higher.
Travis County (Austin) 40.6 percent of individuals with Bachelor's degree or higher.
Brazos County 37 percent of individuals with Bachelor's degree or higher.
Fort Bend County 36.9 percent of individuals with Bachelor's degree or higher.

Previous state primary previews:
Ohio Preview:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4832676

Pennsylvania Preview:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4815774

Rhode Island Preview:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4854041




http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/Seth77

http://blog.texansforobama.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=891

for example Congressional District TX 01

This East Texas GOP district includes the cities of Texarkana, Longview, Part of Tyler, and surrounding rural areas. All the demographics are unfavorable here to Obama, with the one exception of the African American percentage. The rural, white, over 65, non-college educated demographics all point my model towards showing Hillary winning the popular vote, but the 4 delegates here should split 50/50. It's worth noting here that the data on urban/rural population seems to generously define "urban" to include suburban areas and smaller towns




and so on through all 31 Congressional Districts - I don't know if you want to open and past them all but feel free to. All of this great help will not mean much if we cannot get voting information.

I suppose the exit polls will be especially bad tomorrow because of all of the early voting

Corpus Christi and El Paso will both be Clinton strongholds.