It's not so bad as you're making it out to be.

RealClearPolitics has Obama having gone from a 110 (I think) overall (super plus pledged) to now 96. That was around a 155 pledged lead, minus Hillary's 50 or so SD lead--to now. But things are shifting as we speak. In fact, it's now O +131 pledged, O -39 SD == O +92 (gained about 11 SD, lost about 43 pledged)

pledge count is incomplete and shifting though:

RCP has VT +3 O, RI +4 C w/ 1 not counted yet.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Delegate counts are only partial for tonight's big states (especially OH and TX) -- likely TX in particular will be more for O than C, since
a) Obama's strength has been more in the delegate-rich areas like Austin, Houston and Dallas, I think
b) Caucuses (Cauci?) favor Ob, I think, because young enthusiastic supporters attend more than old party stalwarts.
But, currently, RCP gives O:48 C:63 out of 141 in OH -- and O:22 C:30 out of 193 in TX (so TX a long way from done).

Ob gained, looks to me like, 11 SD today (outside of primaries) and CURRENTLY scored -34 pledged by RCP, but that is not likely to stand. So it's possible that Ob stands to break even or gain, once tonight's delegates are counted, putting him up to 170 or more ahead by the time the dust clears, plus more SD's as time goes on.

Hillary certainly won the spin, hands down. Time will tell who won the substance. And time will tell whether substance matters more to the American people, or whether spin will, once again,. carry us all off into a vague, unsettling and disorienting fog.

Peace on all, flamers and lovers alike.
(And please pardon my tone, I'm in a bit of a sharp mood this evening.)

Looks like a momentum shift to me. And, only because his campaign has attacked her so unfairly and used the M$M to assist.

the MSM did favor Obama but that does not mean he courted it - the MSM is corporate-owned

There is no "momentum" that matters, unless it impacts future contests, of which there are few, in a way to enable Clinton to achieve a path to nomination that the superdelegates will facilitate.

Your spin is getting tiring, not to mention totally ignoring most of the info in the OP.

At least to me. I feel like a gyroscope on a gyroscope.

She may or may not have picked up some delegates. Period.

I appreciate your support. But really, the globe is melting, pointless wars are generating more and larger pointless wars, the dollar is long-gone, USA is entering post-Soviet Russia phase, and all this damn spin is getting us NOWHERE!

If Ob wins, it will be by a long, patient season of saying what the problem is and what we can, and will, do about it. IMHO.

Sorry to rant, I will go back and read the rest of the posts now.

Again, Peace.

It's a long way to June, unfortunately.

It's a draw. If Hillary had blown him out completely today, she would likely have eaten into his lead a lot more than it appears she will.

he always trailed Clinton. She had huge margins before.

I agree its a momentum shift. But it wasn't unexpected. And how any hillary supporter can talk about him attacking her unfairly with straight face boggles my mind.

now it was expected?

I am an equal opportunity type person.

numbers tell the story and she ain't got the math to win the nomination.

:crazy:

"his campaign has attacked her so unfairly"... WTF?!!?!!? You are insane... :crazy: :rofl: :puke: :argh:

fun to speculate and I really have no clue, so I'll just try to proportionally assign the delegates based on the current count in the states per the NYTimes.com front page.

from tonight's action, I'd estimate:

Obama picks up 179 delegates
Clinton picks up 189 delegates

1) Texas - 193 delegates
a) Primary (65% of state delegates are assigned via the primary)
HRC - 63
BO - 62

(i got these numbers from the actual TX secretary of state website)

b) Caucus (35% of the state delegates are assigned via the caucus)
assuming the BO55-HRC45 split
HRC - 30
BO - 38

2) Ohio - 141 delegates
assuming the BO43-HRC55 split
HRC - 78
BO - 61

3) Rhode Island - 21 delegates
assuming the BO40-HRC58 split
HRC - 12
BO - 9

4) Vermont - 15 delegates
assuming the BO60-HRC38 split
HRC - 6
BO - 9

After today, he still largely maintains his lead. The future primaries will determine the winner, it seems. Perhaps, it will go all the way to the convention floor.

I think we need a convention. All of these people -- delegates and candidates -- need to get together in one place and hash this thing out. Compromises need to be made. I think this primary is democracy at work, and I'm glad there's no clear winner. Maybe a third person will be put forward who we ALL can support.

He hasn't endorsed anyone as far as I know, and he has 26 delegates. Not much, but if it's getting down to the wire, every bit counts for Obama and Hillary.

On the other front, I fear that a protracted, bloody primary battle could turn off a lot of voters in terms of going against McCain. At this point, McCain is likely to win on the other side, and I think he's perhaps the best candidate the Repubs could've chosen to run against Hillary or Obama. I was hoping they'd be a push-over in 2008, but McCain isn't to be underestimated.

He was my candidate and I was so sad that he dropped out right before our caucus. :(

As for the primary battle, you have a point, and I agree that McCain is not to be underestimated. But the way I see it, there are advantages to carrying the campaigns forward all the way to the convention. With Hillary and Obama both still in the race, McCain can't really know who to campaign against. He can go out and make boring speeches and stuff, but he can't really fire up the base until he has a sure target. He has to sit idly by while the Democrats draw all the attention and enthusiasm, the drama and suspense -- people will forget all about him.
He'll kick back and get lazy.

The closeness of this race has drawn people's attention to not only the candidates but also to the Democratic party's positions on the important issues of our time. Whoever is finally victorious in the primary race will surely have drawn the spotlight for several months. That can't be a bad thing.

Red red Texas just got exposed to a mega-mega dose of Democratic/Progressive ideas, enthusiasm and massive show of strength. In f'in Texas! I don't know if you ever spent any time down around Dallas, Amarillo, Waco, but last time I was down those parts, there didn't seem to be much discussion of anything, let alone 'crazy Democrat ideas'. So there's a good side to it. But I'm still for dialing down the volume a little and trying to focus on actual policies and actions, not just manipulation of the media (a.k.a. spin).

Peace (with teeth a little less clenched than in the OP).

when I was 16 to 21. South Houston High School and University of Houston. I know about Texas -- it's a wonder I survived. They could have put me away for many years there toward the end if they had ever caught me. :hippie: They've sure got some Draconian laws down there. As a transplanted Yankee with crazy liberal ideas, I never felt like I fit in.

Texarkana to Waco, and then on out through Del Rio up to El Paso. Not all of that was pleasant. Some was, but not all. And I sure do understand about not always fitting in. Gives me a little sense of closure, though, to see Dem's out-voting Rep's 2,827,329 to 1,311,970 ( http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX ). Others have said how that's because McCain's unopposed, yada yada. But a little Texas experience tells me Dems out-shouting Reps more than two to one changes the psychological balance a little. IMHO. Obama doing as well as he did (and nearly doing a hell of a lot better) has to scramble a few preconceptions around the great (and sometimes fairly arrogant) state of Texas, I think.

P.S. Glad to hear you got out without serious damage. I think most people are good down there, but the bad ones have an oversized degree of power. So far.

RCP has
still VT +3 O, RI +4 C w/ 1 not counted yet.
O:48 C:63 out of 141 in OH (same as in OP)
Now O:35 C:46 out of 193 in TX (changed from O:22 C:30 in OP, so Ob -11 from -8)

Now won't that just be fun!

Two weeks ago, Team Obama was promising to riot in the streets if Hillary won with superdelegates. Now, they're defending the superdelegates with their lives.

Also by May, Team Obama will be demanding that Florida and Michigan be granted the right to each have an open caucus.

--p!