Question: Which candidate can simultaneously depress Democratic turnout and increase GOP turnout?

Hillary Clinton is the only candidate that can successfully do both.


If she is the nominee.... almost all of the millions of new voters that Obama has brought into the party go back to being on the sidelines, apathetic and disenchanted with the process.

At the same time, a Clinton nomination gets Repugs everywhere to break out their checkbooks and go through hell and high-water to get to the polls to vote against her.


It's the worst of both worlds. Astute political analysts can see it.... Hillary would not only likely lose badly in the GE... but the depressed Dem turnout combined with the increased GOP turnout would likely cause the Democrats to lose their hold on the Senate and/or House or at a minimum see their majorities dwindle.


Hillary has negative coattails in a general election.

Every argument she has used to demonstrate her "strength" compared to Obama is an area in which John McCain is even stronger than she is.

Like Mondale in 1984 with his "red phone" ad against Hart, which was an effective argument for Reagan over Mondale, Hillary is making the GE argument for McCain with her "3AM" ad.

There is no contrast between Hillary and McCain on most issues.... other than the fact that he is MORE experienced than her and a more capable Commander in Chief.

A Hillary candidacy in November would be a disaster for the party from the top of the ticket all the way down to local races. Say bye-bye to the Senate. Say bye-bye to comfortable majority in the House.


There's a reason that Freepers around the country are celebrating like crazy today... celebrating even more than the misguided Hillary supporters.


Wise up, folks. Of the two, Obama gives us our best shot.

...

He proved he can't close the deal when it means the most.

This has nothing to do with how EITHER of them would do against McCain.

or when she leads in delegates.

Isn't it conceivably MUCH worse to have had the whole thing already wrapped up with insurmountable leads, and then blow it all over two months?

Your logic is flawless.

she's one of the most polarizing figures in recent political history.

I couldn't have said it better. I never cease to be amazed at the delusional thinking of Hillary supporters. She is the one person who can guarantee the continued domination of the Republican Party. They have spent the past fifteen years setting her up for that, and she is playing right into their hands.

her tactics instead of wanting her to run on her experience? Why do people support someone that runs a campaign, not on why she should win but on dirty old tricks??

I can't figure out why the Dems would want to run with her. How can she possibly win. With Obama it's a fight, but at least he doesn't have a trail of negatives following behind him like toilet paper on a shoe.

And Hillary is only making it worse for us. If she becomes the nominee, instead of countering an tepid republican base with enthusiastic independents, new voters, and maybe a few republican defectors; she has left half of the democratic base and many potential outside voters pissed off at her tactics. She will definitely be the shot in the arm the republicans needed to wake up and vote for McCain.

Ugh. I could scream. The democratic party is always so incompetent.

... had she won the nomination cleanly, but her tactics are *really* stacking the odds against her.

I'd run an ad that says "Hillary can't win a general election, she'll unify the republican base and alienate too many independents. Obama is the candidate for democrats who want to win in November"

If anyone will lose to the GOP in the general election it's Obama. It's time we woke up alright and realize it's not the Clinton supporters who are misguided.

I would argue that most of those that voted in Ohio for Hillary would vote for Obama in the GE ... and vice versa.


The difference is.... McCain would get MUCH BETTER GOP turnout if he was facing Clinton as opposed to Obama.

that's totally your opinion. my opinion is Ohio is an important state in the GE that rejected him and gave Clinton a 10% lead to win.

...that lied about his intentions on NAFTA.

He'll be running against an ADAMANT "free trader" in McCain.

Do the math.

Oh...wait...sorry...mentioning math to Hillary supporters just isn't very nice.

Just like her husband, she'll need a Perot to split the Republican vote. I agree that spending an entire primary campaign turning off new and young voters (the future of the party) will injure her come the general.

This whole thing about being tough, about standing up to the right wing, is as Bill once said, "the greatest fairy tail I've ever heard". As noted, he couldn't have won w/o Perot. Secondly, they lost Congress for us. Thirdly, Hillary hasn't won crap as far as elective office goes. She took New York as the "superstar", the same thing she claims to decry today.

campaigning for? Hillary Clinton! She's the only candidate who can unite the Republican party better than their own nominee.

Both Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama can do that without even trying.

To think otherwise is to under estimate the GOP machine and/or prognosticating through candidate-colored glasses...



But then again, I'm sure everyone who's been emphatically stating that one or the other candidate will spell the doom of our chances in Nov. have a direct line to Ms. Cleo-- whose own predictions hold about the same validity.

... so long as we keep using the same old political consultants.

How about giving Bob Shrum another try, eh?

It's that simple...and there are people like my Dad all over. There are people like him who wont' vote at all unless Hillary is the nominee for the Dems, and then the will vote for McCain. There are people like me who know the math and that the only way that HRC can win the nomination is to have it decided by the Superdelegates and if that's the case, I'm done with the Democratic Party and I plan on election day to write-in Obama's name because I am tired of voting for whom I'm told to vote for.

Obama is the only shot for the Dems at this point and they might just blow it.

But getting the nomination via the superdelegates and, assuming, overriding Obama's pledged delegate majority will have enooormous consequences.

Hillary can spin all she wants regarding "no candidate has won the nomination/Presidency without winning state X", but somebody tell me how a Democrat is going to win the Presidency without the strong support of the African-American community. She would have been OK had she won the pledged majority and the nomination cleanly, but I expect polls will show decreasing African-American support for Hillary coinciding with the escalation of her negative campaigning.

Superdelegates give the nomination to Hillary against the popular vote. I expect that it won't just be decreasing African-American support for Hillary, but decreasing support for the democratic party.

And, assuming the superdelegates overrule, I'm not sure how much making Obama her VP candidate will help.

What do you see yourself doing were the Dem ticket Clinton/Obama?

Although I would put an Obama/Clinton as my first choice....

But realistically, that is not a good option. Clinton hasn't won any red states and also neither have military experience. In my opinion, either of them needs to have a VP running mate who has military experience and/or foreign relations experience. I say this, because I believe that is the one weakness in trying to take on McCain.

... but she needs to refuse. (would possibly heal some of the primary wounds, and would keep her from energizing the Rethug base in the GE)

And like your father my mother voted for Obama in the GA primary. She thinks McCain is a slimy, corrupt sleazebag and she's hoping that Obama is the nominee as she's sick of what the republican party has become and done, but Hillary is out of the question. :hi:

...and voting for her in these primaries. They know she is much more susceptible than Obama.

Its an unknown entity at this point.Id rather go with a vetted candidate.At least Hillary has had 8 yrs to know what to expect and how to defend herself.
Obama has to defend on the fly much like his recent NAFTA debacle, only with much more damaging accusations.He cant walk out of press conferences in the GE and expect to win.

http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2835&u_sid=10274052

Published Tuesday | March 4, 2008
Obama could make contest in Nebraska
BY ROBYNN TYSVER
WORLD-HERALD STAFF WRITER


Ed Haefele is a Republican but not a rock-ribbed soldier of the GOP.

Click to Enlarge

Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois speaks at a town hall meeting with veterans in San Antonio on Monday.
In 1964 he crossed party lines to vote for Lyndon B. Johnson. It was the last time that Haefele and Nebraska backed a Democratic presidential contender.

Today, Haefele is considering another trek across the partisan divide to support Barack Obama. He says he admires Obama's eloquence and intellect, despite some of the Democrat's "hare-brained" ideas, such as gun control.

"I think if I was in a closed voting booth and if I had a choice between (John) McCain or Obama, I would go with Obama," said Haefele, a retired political science professor from Pennsylvania who has lived in Alliance, Neb., since 1988.

"The man is a phenomenon," Haefele said.

Haefele is the type of Republican that Obama says he could attract in the fall, but is Obama enough of a wunderkind to pull an LBJ in Nebraska? Could he woo enough independents and Republicans like Haefele to pick off electoral votes in a red state like Nebraska?

It's not impossible, said several political observers and even some Republicans.

<more at link above>

What do they think they will accomplish? They do this in spite of the fact that their tunnel vision strategy means more soldiers and civilians in Iraq will die for their (and Hillary's) vanity.

:kick:

:dem:

-Laelth

RED states will be voting for him in the GE. He's a paper tiger.

Sexist and just plain nasty. Obama isn't even on his radar.

incredibly high. I don't think Hillary would get those votes like Obama does.

This should be obvious to everyone by now.

...who will vote for him. Hillary Clinton doesn't even have the full support of her
party. Before this primary began (and before she offended so many Democrats), polls
repeatedly showed that 20 percent of Democrats would NOT vote for Hillary Clinton.

The Democratic party wouldn't be united with her, and she won't garner the Indy vote because
McCain will. Forget the Republicans. No Democratic figure will incite such dire motivation
to run to the polls and vote against her--as Hillary Clinton.

She's galvanize the Republicans, and she'll be destroyed.

Obama needs to get on this!!!! He needs to be saying this far and wide. Plenty of polls
to back up these facts. It wouldn't be attacking, because it is a fact that goes along
with a Hillary candidacy. She can't win. She's too polarizing, the Dems won't coalesce
around her and she can't win Indies and disenfranchised Reps like he can.

There's your argument for the next two days, Barack! Do it up!

the republicans voters.....they already make half the country, look at the past elections, so if hillary wins, were in big trouble, especially if she loses the Obama supporters by insulting Obama.

And with Obama being her likely VP choice, that thumping will be even more severe.

But feel free to continue demoralizing people with bullshit defeatism, if that's what floats your boat.

Open your eyes please!

If you don't believe that, despite who our nominee is, than I feel sorry for you.

:thumbsup:

...she CANNOT be on the ticket...NOT if the Dems are serious about taking back the WH...

It's sad really. We'd just basically killed off the Republican party for a generation and now we turn around and do this. It's almost as if the Democratic party doesn't want to lead. When you consider the fact that the Clintons would assuredly run Dean and his brilliant 50 state strategy out of town in favor of a hack like Harold Ford, you're pretty much looking at a lot of hard won Democratic candidates facing the specter of a single term.

This thread's for you:

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