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I don't get it...didn't they reduce the delegates needed so 1 candidate could win (w/o FL & MI)?

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jmg257 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:10 PM
Original message
I don't get it...didn't they reduce the delegates needed so 1 candidate could win (w/o FL & MI)?
Why is it realisticly "near impossible" for either to win?

I am watching this on CNN, and I don't get it.


Why would such a situation be "allowed"?

:crazy:
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:11 PM
Response to Original message
1. Its impossible to do so without superdelegates.
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jmg257 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:12 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. But don't they just add ALL the delegates (both types) & divide by 2?
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FlyingSquirrel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:23 PM
Response to Reply #6
13. I don't know what they do, but in fact it's completely possible to win
Edited on Wed Mar-05-08 06:23 PM by FlyingSquirrel
Once all the voting is over, if 60% of the remaining supers go to the popular delegate winner (or some switching occurs). The entire argument is crap. Nobody knows what the supers will do.
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sniffa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:11 PM
Response to Original message
2. Yes, the number to win was originally higher
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:12 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. 2208.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:12 PM
Response to Original message
3. They did. The number needed to win, had MI and FL counted is
2208.

That is one reason they will not have a huge effect. If you seat the delegates from FL and MI, the Nominee needs to get 183 MORE that 2025 to secure the nomination.
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jmg257 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:14 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. OK - so once ALL the delegates have been counted, won't we have a winner? Or
Edited on Wed Mar-05-08 06:15 PM by jmg257
is the big issue that the superdelegates won't "officially" be counted until the convention? So we WON'T KNOW till then?
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. Superdelegates don't actually vote until the convention.
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jmg257 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:20 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. Ahh - thanks! Makes sense now. Appreciate it eveyone!
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:19 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. IF Hillary stays in until the COnvention. We'll know then.
With two strong candidates, the SuperD's will participate and one of them will get the 2025 delegates needed to secure the Nomination. Neither can mathematically reach 2025 without some SuperD's. Hillary needs more of them, though.

Between now and then, Hillary will be facing a rising tide of Obama SuperD's and two more state wins, WY and MS. She will probably start to feel the heat from party insiders and bigwigs to bow out. I have no idea when or if that will happen.
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Iwasthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:12 PM
Response to Original message
5. good point
Maybe they should adjust the threshold now... just take a couple hundred off the top
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movonne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:18 PM
Response to Original message
8. It was the Florida democrats that are to blame..THEY DIDN'T
FOLLOW THE RULES...and the only fair way it can be solved is awarding
50/50 to each candidate...you can't put the toothpaste back in the tube....
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mythyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:25 PM
Response to Reply #8
14. honestly it's a very good thing for Obama that Florida did that
I'm on his side, but with Florida counting, which he would not win even if campaigning there, more perception-laden kudos tip Hillary's way. I'm not glad what happened in Florida happened (not cool what the state did and even more boneheaded what the DNC did--they should have just penalized them half like the RNC wisely did), but I can see what's been happening enough to recognize that it works in Obama's favor (and be vicariously glad such is that case--that purely subjectively as his supporter though).
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FlyingSquirrel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:19 PM
Response to Original message
10. Oh, I saw that last night. Pure stupidity on their part
Edited on Wed Mar-05-08 06:20 PM by FlyingSquirrel
The argument was, "Neither can get to 2,025 and therefore we should count MI and FL so that one of them can get to 2,025."

How absurdly stupid, unless somehow they are just purposely lying.

Obviously if you include MI and FL, there are more delegates needed to win. (DCW says it's 2,207.5)

So the argument is just completely ridiculous on its face.
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johnnydrama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 10:29 PM
Response to Original message
15. if there are 2 strong candidates
going all the way, it's virtually impossible for either to win without super delegates.

There are 4050 delegates, but only 3200 available as pledged delgates. So you would have to win 2025 out of 3200, which is around 63%.

Obviously if the super delegates went 50/50 or broke the same way as the primaries, then that would push the leader over the top.
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CK_John Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. Here are the numbers.
• There are currently 4,049 total delegates to the Democratic National Convention, including 3,253 pledged delegates and 796 superdelegates. The total number of delegate votes needed to win the nomination is 2,025.
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