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'17 battleground states' - what are they?

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UrbScotty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 04:30 PM
Original message
'17 battleground states' - what are they?
Edited on Mon Apr-05-04 04:50 PM by ih8thegop
I hear a lot about the '17 battleground states.' What are they?

I'm fairly certain the following 14 are among them:

Arizona
Florida
Iowa
Michigan
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
West Virginia
Wisconsin

I suspect 3 of the following:

Arkansas
Colorado
Illinois (though I doubt it)
Louisiana
Maine
Minnesota
North Carolina
Virginia
Washington

I think of these, Arkansas, Colorado, and Virginia are most likely to comprise the other three.

What do you think? Are there actually more than 17?
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IronLionZion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 04:32 PM
Response to Original message
1. check this out
http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/
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dolstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 04:37 PM
Response to Original message
2. I'm pretty sure that Tennessee, Colorado and Virginia are NOT
among the states where Kerry is running ads. So his own campaign does not consider these states to be competitive. And since he isn't running ads, they probably won't be competitive.

I believe Kerry is running ads in Arkansas, Minnesota and Maine.

If the Republicans haven't already written off Illinois, they probably will soon.
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Supormom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 04:42 PM
Response to Original message
3. This year Minnesota is considered a swing state
Polls this past week-end give Kerry a 12% lead. bush*'s negative advertising is not working here!
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strategery blunder Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 06:00 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. Let bu$h waste his money in Minnesota
Edited on Mon Apr-05-04 06:00 PM by chair094
where it won't do him any good!

Is there any way to encourage the bu$h cabal to keep throwing its money down the tube?:evilgrin:

Edit: punctuation
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Leilani Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 04:47 PM
Response to Original message
4. Some pundits & articles say 17; some 18
Ypur first list needs Arkansas, Minnesota, & Washington.

Those are the states that I've seen listed as swing states.
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dae Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 04:50 PM
Response to Original message
5. Louisana is going Dem this Fall.
:kick:
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dolstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 06:01 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. In your dreams
Edited on Mon Apr-05-04 06:02 PM by dolstein
If Kerry carries Lousiana in November, I'll eat my hat.
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AntiCoup2K4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 06:20 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. Louisiana has done well in the last couple of elections.
Maybe this idea of voting on Saturday should be looked into elsewhere. Seems to draw a better turnout.
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amazona Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 07:34 PM
Response to Reply #7
13. why not ?
Louisiana went for Clinton and has a strong Democratic tradition. If Kerry makes the right VP pick, he can get Louisiana. I think John Breaux would be a good choice -- it would get the oil companies a little more neutral because they could be comfortable no matter who won -- and Breaux plays well with others -- but I'm pretty sure he is firm about wanting to retire from public life.

Also keep in mind...all that French-hating stuff...that does not play well in south Louisiana. Kerry and his wife could well end up picking up sympathy points just on the nasty French-baiting crap from the Republicans.
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dae Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 08:33 PM
Response to Reply #7
15. I hope it's tasty, b/c Kerry's Catholic, Louisiana's Cajun population is
mostly Catholic. That was one of the factors that helped JFK in Louisiana. Not the only reason but enough to tip the scales so you better start marinading that hat "sha".
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juajen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-06-04 03:02 AM
Response to Reply #7
22. Salt, pepper or Louisiana Hot Sauce?
I agree. Louisiana will go Dem in '04. Well, I guess I could qualify that somewhat; So. Louisiana will go DEM; not sure about those damned northerners, bible belt you know. However, heavier population is in the south.

Additionally, you heard it here first. Mitch Landrieu for Governor in 2012. Mary's little brother is a comer.
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Padraig18 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 06:16 PM
Response to Original message
8. Illinois is not one.
Illinois is the most 'decidely blue' blue state in between the east and west coasts.
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IronLionZion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 07:17 PM
Response to Original message
10. Nader needs to get the hell out of PA
and the other swing states.
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amazona Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 07:30 PM
Response to Original message
11. Louisiana is one
I think Arkansas is likely to be another but Louisiana is certainly up for grabs.
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dolstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 10:19 PM
Response to Reply #11
16. Kerry apparently disagrees with you
Kerry isn't advertising in Lousiana. They've already written it off.
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tameszu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 11:22 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. Not necessarily true
Is Bush advertising here?

Kerry has very, very limited money right now--I think the way the campaign sees it is that as far TV ads go, for the next few months he needs to play defense, and counter where Bush advertises, so as not to let any swing state become a runaway for Bush. Notice that MoveOn has been jumping on this coordination strategy too--they only advertise where both Bush and Kerry advertise to maximize their funds.
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Ookie Donating Member (554 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 07:31 PM
Response to Original message
12. I'm out here in Washington state
And I'm hoping that the Repub's are hit hard after they voted to end extended unemployment benefits. The job market here is still very bad.
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zorkpolitics Donating Member (59 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 08:31 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. check out the state polls
Check out HedgeHog for the latest state by state polls:
http://www.davidwissing.com/bushkerrystate2004.html

Currently Kerry leads in the following swing states:
IA by 10
MI by 10
MN by 12
OR by 5
WA by 6


Bush leads in:
AZ by 9
CO by 9
FL by 8
MO by 7
NV by 11
NH by 3
PA by 6
TN by 11
WI by 6


Both Tied (or ahead by only 1)
NM
OH
WV

Among the swing states there is a clear trend for Kerry in the Pacific (OR, WA) and the Upper Midwest (MN, IA, MI, except WI) Bush in the more Southern states (MO, TN, FL) and Southwest (CO, AZ, NV except NM).

Compared to 2000 Bush is much stronger in FL, PA and WI and weaker in OH, WV, and NH
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Josh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-06-04 12:50 AM
Response to Original message
18. The other three are Minnesota, Washington, and Arkansas
nt.
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napi21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-06-04 01:50 AM
Response to Original message
19. I would put PA in the dem column.
I don't live there anymore, but there are a lot of unemplpoyed people in that state because of lost mfg. and outsourced jobs.

I think it depends on where they do the polling. Phili may be Pub but the rest of the state sure isn't.
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jsw_81 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-06-04 02:28 AM
Response to Original message
20. Not Tennessee, not Virginia, not North Carolina
It would be nice if we could win those states, but it's extremely unlikely that we will.
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JPJones Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-06-04 02:53 AM
Response to Original message
21. Why not look at what Kerry thinks?
The 30-second spot will run in 17 states beginning Tuesday: Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Mexico, Oregon, Wisconsin, Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, West Virginia, Arizona, Arkansas, Washington and Ohio.

http://www.johnkerry.com/pressroom/releases/pr_2004_0322.html
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