Wyoming Preview: Demographic Analysis, Obama and Clinton Strongholds, and County Maps

Wyoming (18 delegates) State wide demographic advantage:

Persons 65 years old and over, percent, 2006: 12.2% - Very close to national average = No advantage
Black persons, percent, 2006: 0.9% - Very much less than the national average = +++Clinton
Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, percent, 2006: 6.9% - Less than half the national average = ++Obama
Bachelor's degree or higher, pct of persons age 25+, 2000: 21.9% - Less than national average = +Clinton
(Overall demographic advantage = ++Clinton)

However, Obama has done significantly better in caucuses and Wyoming is a caucus. Clinton supporters have framed this by noting that Obama supporters tend to be more educated with higher incomes and thus better able to attend a caucus. It may also be that Obama supporters are more motivated. Either way, Obama boots are more common on the ground at caucuses.


County level analysis

Demographic characteristics indicate a very small African American population but nevertheless small concentrations in south Wyoming, particularly in the southeast Laramie County. (Note Laramie city is in Albany county and Cheyenne is in Laramie county):




There is also a small Latino population but it is more significant than the much smaller Black population in Wyoming. This population is within a number of counties also primarily in south Wyoming with the exception of Washakie County in north central Wyoming that has a Latino population of 13.2%:




Elderly Wyoming individuals are concentrated in very low populated counties. The three populated counties are primarily indicated by the presence of the following three cities within them noted in this population map:




With that in mind here is the by county 65+ map:




Obama strongholds:

Albany County has a small elderly population of 8.9% (statewide % is 12.2%), it being the home of the University of Wyoming, is also highly educated with 44.1% having a Bachelors degree or higher. Obama will be here Friday night.

Teton County is highly educated 45.8% having a Bachelors degree or higher. It was the only county in Wyoming that Kerry won in 2004.


Clinton Stronghold

Washakie and Carbon Counties have significant (for Wyoming) Latino concentrations, tend to be less educated, and Washakie also has a higher concentration of elderly individuals.


Battlegrounds

Laramie County contains around 1/6th of the population of the state (85,384). It also has both higher Black and Latino concentrations with other demographic factors matching the state average.


2004 Elections results by county:





http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/Seth77

:hi:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/

Obama - $107,874
Clinton - $48,189

Thanks so much, usregimechange. :yourock:

But it seems every time I open a thread that seems like it's going to have a lot of good analysis about a state, or an upcoming primary or something like that it's from an Obama supporter.

Maybe i'm missing all the threads from Hillary supporters like this one, with well documented facts about a state, like this thread, but I'm not remembering that many.

Thanks for the info.

a small number of AA voters is not automatically a plus for Clinton. Look at Iowa, Idaho, CO, ME, and VT. All states with small AA numbers. All states won big by Obama.

... even if it is dangerous to party unity, has at least energized voters in states that have been ignored in the past, and it has given me a chance to learn about voting patterns in states I've never really studied.

Thanks for your analysis, OP.

:patriot:

-Laelth

Obama slightly higher than Clinton.
34% had a favorable impression Obama, while 26% had a favorable impression of Clinton.
Clinton received an unfavorable rating from 55% while Obama received an unfavorable rating from 39%
Clinton received a neutral rating from 18% and Obama received neutral rating from 26%
625 registered voters, surveyed 394 republicans and 167 democrats

Here's a link to a local Wyo story today about the caucuses: http://www.trib.com/articles/2008/03/07/news/wyoming/eea59a1dafb6d96087257405000d7436.txt

I know mostly republicans here in Wyo, and almost all of them are vehemently opposed to Clinton. I haven't heard a whole lot of bashing of Obama. In the general election, I don't think it will matter much to Wyo who is on the ballot, since this state will go for McCain (based on my gut only).

I have received about 4 or 5 flyers in the mail from Obama, and I've heard several radio commercials. I've also received at least 5 or 6 phone calls from the Obama offices. I just got my first Clinton call a few minutes ago. The guy asked me if Hillary could count on my vote tomorrow. I said, "I don't know yet." He then simply asked me if I knew where to caucus tomorrow. I was surprised that he didn't try to convince me why I should vote for Clinton.

I haven't received anything in the mail from Clinton. I think there have been negative ads from Clinton on tv, but I generally don't watch tv, so I haven't seen them. I haven't heard anything on the radio from Clinton, either.

The Obama office in town was giving out tickets for his appearance here this afternoon, and apparently they ran out of 1500 tickets in no time at all. I thought that was interesting, since this town is predominantly republican, and I don't hear very much from the democrats here. When I went to get my tickets, there was a ton of traffic (again, not normal for Casper!) around his office where people were trying to find parking spots.

The Clinton talk doesn't require tickets. I still haven't decided who I'm voting for, but I will before the caucuses tomorrow morning (assuming I can make it, since I have to get my kids to ski lessons at the same time!).

Thanks for posting the local info

:hi:

being a democrat in Wyoming

What Will Happen in Wyoming on Saturday?
By Marie Horrigan, CQ Staff
Wyoming uses a two-tier system for awarding delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Denver this August. On Saturday Wyoming Democrats will undertake the “first determining step” that uses a combined caucus/convention process to allocate pledged delegates.

Each of the state’s 23 counties will hold their convention throughout the day, with the last one scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. MST (6 p.m. EST), where attendees will participate in a “presidential preference vote.”

The cumulative result statewide from each county’s “preference vote” will be used to determine the allocation of seven delegates to the national convention. Candidates have to pass a threshold of 15 percent support, which means candidates who do not win at least 15 percent of the vote will be removed from contention. The seven delegates to the national convention will be allocated based on the percentage of the vote each candidate receives.

Wyoming Democrats also will indirectly select another five delegates on Saturday. County convention attendees will caucus to select delegates to the state convention, which is scheduled for May 24 in Jackson. These state delegates in turn will choose five delegates to the national convention in August.

Wyoming additionally has six so-called superdelegates, who independently decide which candidate they will support. Wyoming has 18 delegates total to the national convention

Wyoming Polls: Barack Obama to Hold the Line in Wyoming Caucus
Senator Hillary Clinton stopped Senator Barack Obama's streak of primary and caucus wins at 11 with her victory in Rhode Island and reaffirmed her viability as a contender for the Democratic nomination for president by winning handily in Ohio and holding on to win the Texas Primary (the caucus results for Texas are still being tabulated). But does that mean anything to the people of Wyoming? Wyoming is the next Democratic contest point and will conduct their state caucus Saturday, March 8.

But Senator Clinton will have a difficult time in Wyoming if this year's caucuses and primaries in the Plains states are to be indicators of Wyoming's bent. It started with Obama surprisingly winning the Iowa Caucus. But he has won all the other Plains states that have voted thus far, as well as all the Rocky Mountain states and Washington state. Clinton won the entire block of Southwestern states from Texas to California (she even won Nevada by actual vote count but ended up in a delegate tie because of the Democratic representational apportioning method of delegate selection). And since race has been no real factor in the Plains states (whose populations are predominantly caucasian), Senator Clinton cannot even depend on race bias to help her out.

And since Wyoming is a caucus, Senator Clinton may have problems there as well. Senator Obama's campaign has seemed to be very effective with getting out the vote in the Caucus states. David Gergen and John King have often told CNN audiences that Obama's people are better organized and have been able to consistently get people to the polls in the caucus states. They have been able to mobilize young and urban populations to show up for the caucuses. And numbers make all the difference.

Obama took the North Dakota Caucus, 61% to 37%. The numbers were similar in Colorado's caucuses, 67% to 32%. He crushed Clinton in Idaho, 79% to 17%. Obama won Washington 68% to 31%. He also won Kansas 74% to 26%.

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/640765/wyoming_polls_barack_obama_to_hold.html

This is not a rally - this is a caucus


It is fucking unbelievable

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5fwJEWLUv8

:hi:

News Minute: Here is the latest Wyoming news from The Associated Press

Associated Press - March 7, 2008 6:55 PM ET

CASPER, Wyo. (AP) - More than 1,000 people chanting "yes, we can" greeted Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama in Casper this afternoon (Friday) at a rally on the eve of the Wyoming caucus. Sen. Hillary Clinton is also campaigning in Wyoming today (Friday), holding events in Cheyenne and Casper. The two remain locked in a close race for the Democratic nomination. At stake during Saturday's Wyoming caucuses are 12 delegates to the national convention this summer in Denver.

Looking forward to tommorow! It is time!

GOBAMA!!

States with limited job opportunities are bearing an unfair share of the load when it comes to military service.

States like Colorado, Nevada, Nebraska, the Dakotas, Kansas and so on...

states are supporting Obama because they have a child, a grand child, a sibling, a cousin a friend being sent over to Iraq for the third or fourth time?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/07/us/politics/07wyoming.html?ref=politics



CHEYENNE, Wyo. — Being a Democrat in this state means that one’s status in political life is rarely in question and rarely that good. Republicans have a more than two-to-one edge in voter registration — or even 10 to 1 in some counties — and the Democrats, who are gearing up for their presidential caucuses on Saturday, usually get the leftovers.


Back in 1921, for example, when there was one lonely Democrat in the Wyoming House of Representatives, he would routinely announce where his caucus — of one — would meet, in case anyone else was interested. First the telephone booth, he would say, then the men’s room, then the bar on the corner.“I think dilution would be the proper term,” said Dr. John Millin, an ophthalmologist who serves as the state Democratic Party chairman.But this time, Democrats here say, it feels different. In contrast to all the dismally attended, demoralized Democratic presidential caucuses of past years, the outnumbered Democrats of Wyoming might actually have something to roar about.
.

Some Democrats here say they have never seen a political mood swing so overwhelming or so fast — from the status quo of irrelevance to full kiss-kiss campaign embrace, in nothing flat.“I have never had a period of compressed political intensity like these last 48 hours,” Kathleen M. Karpan, a longtime Democratic activist and former Wyoming secretary of state, said Thursday. Ms. Karpan, who supports Mrs. Clinton, of New York, took a week off from her law practice to help with last minute details before Saturday.

Around the state, caucus locations are being moved from living rooms to meeting halls. Here in Laramie County, the most populous, Democrats reserved the Cheyenne Civic Center, which will seat up to 1,500 people for an event that in the past has drawn maybe 250.
“People are excited that it would actually matter,” said Margaret Whited, the party chairwoman in Park County in the state’s northwest corner. Ms. Whited said all the energy and attention swirling around the caucuses could help in the fight against her biggest enemy: apathy among Democrats who think their voices do not count.

In Niobrara County north of here, where a dozen Democrats coming to the caucuses would indicate a big year in the past and four voters was tolerable, the county chairman, Brad Smyth, refused to be drawn into a guessing game about the numbers.“I might give away our strength if I tell you,” Mr. Smyth said. (His bluff only goes so far, since there are just 101 registered Democrats in the county, according to the Wyoming Secretary of State’s Office.)

http://www.coloradoan.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080307/UPDATES01/80307053

Obama stumps for change in the White House
BY JASON KOSENA
JasonKosena@coloradoan.com

LARAMIE – Presidential candidate Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is a few minutes into his campaign speech on the campus of the University of Wyoming in Laramie.

Speaking to a crowd of approximately 8,500, Obama told supporters that he is the Democratic candidate who can bring change to Washington, D.C.


“What has been missing is a sense of political will, some inspiration,” Obama said. “What has been missing is an American people who want to bring their (White House) back. I need your help.”

..nice size crowd, though..do we have any Wyoming DUers?

I found this earlier today on another Wyoming thread..The Guv seems kinda scarey..

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4949426&mesg_id=4950891

Governor still undecided on Democratic candidates
http://www.wyomingnews.com/articles/2008/03/07/local_news_updates/17local_03-07-08.txt

*


Gov. Dave Freudenthal said in a news release that he is intrigued by the interest in Wyoming’s upcoming caucuses. As a superdelegate in the Democratic Party, Freudenthal remains undecided on the candidates.

Today, the governor issued the following statement:

“It is remarkable that Wyoming’s Democratic caucuses are garnering the nation’s attention this year, and it is even more interesting that both candidates will make appearances in the state today. With their visits to Wyoming, I can no longer say that neither of the candidates has paid attention to Western issues.

“I encourage Wyoming voters to participate in the upcoming caucuses and to make their own decision on who they think will be the best candidate. I intend to participate in the rallies today for both candidates, but I still have not made a choice between the two. I continue to consider their advantages and to watch the process with interest.”

Wyoming is a state where nobody trusts the government, so the pattern for years has been to have a very balanced mix at the legistlative/executive level. That way nobody can get much done, so very little harm is likely :-).

Gov Dave has been very successful, though, in working with the Republican dominated legislature to pass worthwhile bills. We have the huge advantage of a massive budet surplus, so most of the argument is over how much to spend and how much to put away in the Permanent Mineral Trust Fund, and investment pool into which surplus can be placed, but NEVER removed; only the return on the investments comes back to the general fund.

Previously he's said (in typical grumpy Gov Dave gravelly tones) that he doesn't support either one of the Democratic contenders as neither of them actually address concerns of folks living in the rural West. There aren't very many of us, and we feel like a Third World country in the national arena sometimes. As we've suddenly become important, though, there has been more focus on our issues, so he's mellowed in the last week or so. He's an uncommitteed super-delegate, so it will be interesting to see which way be breaks.

Wyoming at Last Is a Democratic Player
By MEAD GRUVER, Associated Press Writer
1:42 PM PST, March 6, 2008
CHEYENNE, Wyo. -- Not since 1960 have Wyoming Democrats felt so relevant.

That year, at the Democratic National Convention, the state's delegation cast 15 votes that pushed Sen. John F. Kennedy over the top and made him the party's nominee for president.With this year's race for the Democratic nomination still unsettled after primaries this week, Wyoming Democrats are feeling relevant again as Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama focus on the 12 delegates at stake in Saturday's caucus.

Only in the last few weeks have the campaigns stepped up their presence in the state, opening offices and calling voters and sending mailers. The first visits come Thursday, when former President Clinton makes three appearances. Obama and Hillary Clinton follow, each scheduling two events on Friday.

Clinton plans town-hall meetings in Casper and Cheyenne. Obama, who has had greater success with caucuses, plans a rally in Laramie at the University of Wyoming. Both campaigns announced Wednesday they will start running ads in Wyoming. The Clinton camp said it will launch 60-second radio ads, while Obama will start running 30-second television ads and 60-second radio ads.

The number of registered Democrats has grown by more than 1,000 since the start of the year, the secretary of state's office says. Republicans have 136,000 registered voters, compared to 59,000 Democrats."In the grand scheme of things, Wyoming factors in for us," said Obama spokesman Matt Chandler. "We take it very seriously."

I just sent him $100.