Florida Senate race narrowing to two (Democrat Castor leads in new poll)

Please forgive the source, its the best I could do.


MIAMI, April 7 (UPI) -- A poll released Wednesday shows the Republican race for Florida's soon-to-be-vacant Senate seat is turning into a two-man contest.

The poll, commissioned by the Orlando Sentinel and WESH-TV in Orlando, shows former Rep. Bill McCollum with 27 percent of the vote and former housing Secretary Mel Martinez with 18 percent. None of the other candidates collected more than 8 percent.

In the Democratic contest former state Education Commissioner Betty Castor collected 33 percent to 16 percent for Rep. Peter Deutsch, D-Fla., but 41 percent of the voters are undecided

--snip--

Castor leads McCollum 39 percent to 38 percent with 23 percent undecided and also is ahead of Martinez 39-36 percent with 25 percent undecided.

--continued--

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040407-094646-5952r.htm

in Florida. Democrats can win this race.

I just compare her to Jean Shaheen. The state is politically very close to New Hampshire. (they both were red states that would have been won if not for Nader). I think the candidate needs the clear ability to present themselves with evidence as a bridge-builder and not a typical run of the mill tax-increasing dem. Someone like Penelas, who has been an extremely successful mayor, leading the state in job growth in a high job growth state.

If that's true, and I don't want him getting the nod.

...without that endorsement it wouldn't have even ended up close enough for anyone to worry about recounts.

<<I think the candidate needs the clear ability to present themselves with evidence as a bridge-builder and not a typical run of the mill tax-increasing dem. Someone like Penelas>>

Penelas is always wanting to raise M-D County taxes for grandiose transportation projects, and his pre-K program that he successfully got approved on the ballot is also going to cause tax increases, while I don't mind tax increases for such projects and programs, THAT is a run of the mill tax-increasing Democrat if I ever saw one

part. I just look at who wins in what kinds of states. As I said, Castor reminds me of Jean Shahean, and I gave a reason why New Hampshires politics were in a similar place on a whole as Florida. A race many people I know worked on. I think that Penelas has the unique ability to be Clintonian in that he's a moderate with a clear ability to have minorities turn out, and the Cuban and hispanic vote is so much more crucial in Florida than most states. This is especially pertanant if Mel Martinez is the nominee, as Rove and Bush will do everything in there power that he is.

When Alex Penelas made those comments last month, they created an uproar. Anyone who actually followed the 2000 presidential election remembers Penelas abandoned Gore in the final months of the race, and worse, had turned his back on his supposed friend during the infamous Florida recount.
…
Penelas' words angered his rivals.

U.S. Rep. Peter Deutsch, who is also running for the Senate seat being vacated by Bob Graham, referred to Penelas as ``a pathological liar.''

U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings, another Senate contender, laughed at the notion Penelas helped Gore, describing Penelas instead as ``a negative inside the Democratic Party machinery.''

All this rancor made me wonder if Al Gore had heard about the mayor's boastful claims that he was a ''strong supporter'' of the former vice president and that he was instrumental in helping Gore gather votes in Miami-Dade County.

''I had heard that, yes,'' Gore told me when I reached him by phone on Saturday.

What did he think of the mayor's revisionist memory?
…
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/columnists/jim_defede/6291255.htm?1c

and are declaring the race over, what at least 5 months before the primary? They do not want Penelas nominated, because they know he's the both the strongest candidate and the candidate with a clear ability to help Kerry win Florida

I think he'd be a good candidate, but the risk of him turning into a Zell or a Richard Shelby is on Florida Democrats minds.

What happened is that he spoke at a fundraiser for Mario when he first ran. Penelas said that he thought Mario would vote as a centrist repub like Lincoln has, and that if he'd known Mario would have been so far right, that he never would have done it.

He's also been friends with both of them and there family for long before any of them were elected to anything

I will find the articles I have about this, but I think he took a vacation...during the recount? When he was needed by Gore? Hmmmmmm......
You know, like backed away from Gore?

A lot of Democrats looked at the Wunderkind mayor of Miami-Dade, Alex Penelas, as a rising superstar. Ambitious, smart and Hispanic, People magazine's "sexiest politician" of 1999 looked like a young man destined for the national spotlight.

That changed after a little boy named Elian was plucked from the water off Fort Lauderdale and the national spotlight landed on Penelas and his hometown.

The explosive custody case opened a rift between the Democratic establishment and a defiant Penelas that would only grow during the 2000 election. Some Democrats called Penelas a traitor clearly on the verge of switching to the GOP.

--snip--

Then there's his Al Gore problem. When the presidential election started heating up in Florida, Penelas, an early and vocal Al Gore supporter, disappeared from Gore's side during South Florida campaign trips (though the vice president had sought to distance himself from President Clinton's Elian position).

Stunning many Democrats, Penelas remained mute when Miami-Dade's canvassing board halted its manual ballot recount during the bitterly contested presidential recount.

--continued--

http://www.sptimes.com/2003/08/31/Perspective/Alex_Penelas_confront.shtml

Thanks for finding that. I was using wrong search terms. Now I am looking for the fact that he took a vacation during the time of the recount. I will find it.

blew him off. Read my last post. Close to 100 percent of the Penelas attacks come from spun Jim Defede articles(and venomous Peter Deutsch rehashes of them), because Defede has a Grudge against politicians who don't kiss his ass.

Brazile and co. gave him mixed signals and the cold shoulder and ignored him when Penelas offered his help to the campaign before the election. His staff were apparently perterbed about Penelas's disagreement with them over Elian and Gore's people didn't want to remind people about it. The only thing he's guilty of is not making his family cut their vacation short to come home and help a candidate that had snubbed THEM before.

Penelas named Jim Defede by name as a journalist determined to demonize him ever since Alex refused a long, tell all interview during his first campaign, to my class at college. And Defede has followed suit, spinning everything negatively against Penelas and his allies on the city council and their initiatives and never reporting positively

I don't care who is supporting if it is a republican. Lincoln Diaz-Balart isn't a moderate really. He is more moderate than some in his party but he is a solid GOP vote whenever it counts. Penelas obviously isn't loyal to the party.

Also, Penelas and Deutsch have both battered one another so much during the campaign already that both would be seriously hurt if they ran in the general. Castor is the best candidate. She is in the center of the democratic party and is from Central Florida. Any south Florida democrat will struggle statewide while Castor can win in the swing areas near Orlando and Tampa. She is the best candidate and hopefully she will be the nominee. Also, the fact that McCollum is leading Martinez is good because McCollum is not a good candidate at all.

he's so poor that while Foley was in the race many said they would vote for Foley over McCollum because McCollum was so weak, even though they considered Foley a RINO. In a Castor vs. McCollum race, Castor would win easily.

How close have you been following the campaign? I've been to several joint appearances, and Deutsch is a mean-spirited opportunist windbag. Penelas and Castor have been stressing avoiding those kind of attacks.

Castor has a chance to take advantage of her geography, but Penelas has almost a garentee to take advantage of demography, namely hispanic,particularly Cuban voters. And unlike either other candidate, he has almost a garentee of that demographic advantage giving a boost to Kerry.

He also has an acomplished record as mayor.

That isn't acceptable behavior for a democrat. Deutsch is a jackass who seems very mean and is probably unelectable. It will be nice to see him replaced in the house by Debbie Wasserman-Schultz who seems like she will be a great congresswoman. However, Deutsch's attacks are sometimes true from what I can tell and they have done damage to Penelas. Castor remains unscathed by that and will be strong after the primary.

in a democratic primary, would really substantially hurt Penelas in a general election. That would only add credibility to Penelas framing of himself as a centrist dem to the swing vote in Florida, which both candidates will be going after. Which Castor would need to win herself if she were the candidate. What I think others are trying to say is that despite what Naderite's believe, what it takes to win a democratic primary and a general election in a swing-type or R-leaning state, is in fact entirely different and in many ways opposite. And democrats are at a disadvantage. I don't think we have the luxury of disqualifying the clearly strongest candidate on paper (and I agree also that he would be a huge help to Kerry) just because he attended his friend of the opposite parties fundraiser.

Wouldn't he have to be out there campaigning and raising money if he was running for Senate.

he's raised I beleive 3 million dollars. Deutsch has a little bit more in his coffers than Penelas because he transferred his congressional account into his senate account.

It isn't in dispute that Penelas is a candidate. http://www.alexpenelas2004.com/

That is his website