November Prediction: Iowa Electronic Markets

http://128.255.244.60/quotes/66.html

The IEM has been more accurate than polls in previous elections.

Why then, at *this* time, is Bush doing better than Kerry???

Kerry not getting enough air time?

It's not predicting who would win if the election were held today, it's a bet on who will win in November. Given the advantages of Bush in incumbency and money, the bettors still barely say he will win in November.

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...the British mega-bookies William Hill have Kerry at 5-4 and Bush at 4-7.

In 2000 they gave great odds that the Dems might win the House and really lousy odds that the Dems would win the Senate. I believe the Iowa markets follow the pundits and the chatter.

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a fun way for silly conservatives and business college students to waste their time betting on their bs version of the future.

Who cares what the nitwits who participate in it think?

Sorry, I am in Iowa and it is a pet peeve of mine.

At anyrate, take it with a grain of salt. . .here's what the UIowa Business school sees as its mission

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/about/

snip

We, and many of our colleagues at other institutions, use the markets in classes as a pedagogical tool. We have found them to be an excellent way to focus attention and give hands-on experience with real-world markets.

As a research tool, the markets provide us with an unparalleled laboratory in which we can study individual trading behavior as well as market level performance.

snip

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I can only speculate that people attracted by the IEM are part of Bush's core - repub business profs, conservative business students, wanna be rich people, wanna be Donald Trumps, etc etc.

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of Business. I am sure they would be interested in helping you find the answers to your questions.

To me, I have no interest in this 'futures market' - at worst it is fantasy play market where 'investors' cynically bet on things that matter to me (California Recall, US Election) or at best a teaching tool for business students at the University of Iowa. There is nothing 'scientific' about it, or its preditions.

On the other hand, I guess that the sociology of it, who invests, why they invest is probably fascinating stuff;

So here's that contact info

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/contact.html

snip>
You can also contact the IEM by mail or telephone. Our mailing address is:

iem@uiowa.edu

Iowa Electronic Markets
W283 PBAB
Tippie College of Business
University of Iowa
Iowa City, IA 52242

phone number is:
(319)335-0881

ON EDIT add URL

This market had Dean until just days before the Iowa caucus, when the Iowa poll came out. This thing is represenative of the sheeple mentality and nothing more.

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Dean never did have the support the mainstream media pumped up. That campaign was always WAY more hype than substance. Dean was always putting his foot in his mouth and making terrible mistakes that disturbed mainstream voters. Kerry people said for months Dean was a dotcom candidate and was going to burst. That Iowa Market is the same thing. They are obviously betting on hype, not substance. Poll watchers. It didn't win Dean Iowa and it won't win Bush the White House.

Big media took Dean down the week before (right after he said he'd break them up) and were trying to damage him as much as they could throughout the whole campaign. In addition to the pile-on that the other Democratic candidates, engaged in.

and decided against Dean.

Dean and Kerry were my top two.

I saw them both many times. I am not going to go into what my "negatives" for caucusing Dean turned out to be, but they had nothing to do with "Big Media" taking him down. They were based on my research and first hand observation.

Anecdotal no doubt, but I am sure not unique.