Tracking the Electoral College

A friend of mine runs a site called Federal Review and he's put together a good breakdown state-by-state of how polls have Kerry and Bush stacking up.

Give it a look...

http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm

by the number of red (and pink) states remaining.

Isn't anyone out there in the heartlands paying attention?

still want this man to be president?!?!

http://home.att.net/~jrhsc/ad.html

Thinking People

During his 1956 presidential campaign, a woman called out to
Adlai E Stevenson 'Senator, you have the vote of every thinking person!'

Stevenson called back 'That's not enough, madam, we need a majority!'

But I haven't done my homework on it, just going by gut instinct.

on the website of John Edwards:

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

...it doesn't take into account how polls are tracking.

FYI

"view election trends" box underneath the map. Interesting data from past elections.

That state is getting bluer.

Despite the polls, I have to believe that PA isn't leaning R. At worst, it's a tossup. And in Florida, poll results have been conflicting, either a tossup or maybe even leaning blue...

So this is probably slightly optimistic for Bush.

http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/

http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/map/ecmap.bmp

and

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

Giving him FL, OH, WV, and PA. Also showing LA, NV,and AR as strong GOP states.

Good -- let the GOP tell themselves everything's safe. There will be a shock this November.

Juat last week polls in FL and PA showed Bush leading.

that had Kerry up again

Bush leads Kerry in Florida poll

Associated Press


ORLANDO, Fla. - President Bush holds a slight lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry in Florida, according to a new statewide poll.

A Mason-Dixon poll released Monday shows Bush at 51 percent and Kerry at 43 percent in the state whose recount decided the 2000 election and is expected to be one of the 2004 campaign's top battlegrounds. Six percent were undecided.

Bush held a double-digit lead over all of his Democratic rivals in a Mason-Dixon survey conducted in November, but a similar poll conducted in early March by The Miami Herald and the St. Petersburg Times showed Kerry with a slight advantage.

Analysts said the latest survey reflects a month of television advertising by Bush that has accused Kerry of threatening higher taxes. Kerry has said he would repeal only the tax cuts Bush gave people earning more than $200,000 a year, and to cut corporate income taxes.

Gov. Jeb Bush said Republican ads portraying Kerry as a liberal are beginning to take hold with voters.

more: http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/8367884.htm

Keep in mind that this poll was conducted before Rice testified at the 9-11 hearings, so these numbers may have changed since then.

find white GOP - have a real hard time getting minorities reflected in proportion to their vote - and they admit this problem

Do you have the racial breakdown on this poll?

biased, and missing minority voters - in one of the Stat pubs - but my take away was just the headline.

Hey - if this fellow validates his predictor, we could have fun with this!

But I recall a GDP predictor that was never wrong - until Gore! - of course the fellow says it was not wrong about Gore - he had just not adjusted the final numbers for GOP theft!

but it is a nice graph.

And I am sure he makes a good friend - as do many of my GOP friends.

The underlying data - what poll - what date - what number - would be of interest!

peace

:-)

how did his predictor do?

And how does he come up with Rasmussen being off by 4.5%

And error compared to what when in 2000?

Relative to other polls how did Rasmussen track day to day coming into the election? for same day polling?

But the key item is the validation by redoing the prior elections with this predictor.

Indeed some public polls are only run every 3 to 6 months - do these no longer count after being aged - vis lower wieght - or is it just an in or out decision?

This would be neat project for a first year Stat student - I suggest he submit it for credit if actually has not a validation.

Earlier today there was a link to DSM Register which has Kerry up between 8-10 points here in Iowa and talk that Bushies are starting to write off their chances here in the Hawkeye State. Yet, this has it only narrowly leaning for Kerry. That makes me feel good about the rest of the light and slightly darker blue states on this map including Pennsylvania, etc.

Bush is up +1 in NM (well within the margin of error) and +6 in Wisconsin (well outside the margin of error). That brings the electoral vote count based on the most recent polls to 314-224 in favor of Bush.

Kerry is going to have to get Pennsylvania back into his column (Bush is now ahead there by +6) and take either Ohio and/or Florida to have a shot at winning.

thanks

:-)