Bush 48% Kerry 44% Nader 4% in New Jersey- What's going on here?

I thought New Jersey was a safe state. Is McGreevy hurting Kerry?
In 2000 New Jersey went 56-40 for Gore.
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/cgi-bin/countymapgraphvs.cgi?RaceID=416&Curve=35

I hope this isn't true.
http://publicmind.fdu.edu/head2head/

No way Bush could have turned around a 15 point Gore lead from 2000.

It's anecdotal, but my wife was driving up 95 in NJ on a business trip recently and couldn't believe all the snide comments she was hearing about Bush on the various radio stations.

And the night is over early.

There's got to be something wrong with that poll. What kind of track record/affiliation do they have?

Stern is big in NJ. He will wear down Bush

is leading Kerry in Jersey. Thats just stupid

I wouldn't really worry about NJ going to *

Florio is still legendary. Noone bitches about Whitman. McGreevey is a great man. What the fuck is the problem?

Unfortunately, the party has some "ethical" issues. Even though the state is largely suburban and wealthy and many democrats come from these suburbs, the democratic party is run by party bosses that act like they are in the 1930s not the 21st century. The party is largely run by county organizations with power bosses like Sharpe James, George Norcross, John Lynch, Glenn Cunningham, Bob Menendez, John Gregorio who occasionally have some "ethical" problems of their own (Gregorio, the mayor of the City of Linden was convicted of corruption, pardoned by fmr. Gov. Kean and now is back in power). So, McGreevey has to spend all his time kissing up to these bosses and that doesn't help. For instance, St. Sen. Nia Gill was in line to become chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, but George Norcross, the power boss of South Jersey wanted his ally St. Senator John Adler to remain chair of the committee. McGreevey wants Norcross to support him against any potential primary in 2005 so he intervened to make Adler chair. This is how state democratic politics works all the time and it leads to a lot of corruption.

Also, Whitman was governor under Clinton so the economy was good. Florio and McGreevey had a Bush has president so we all know what that does to the economy.

...and none of them like Bush.

It's probably a republican skewed poll. Don't worry, NJ will win one for Kerry

No way does Bush take New Jersey.

The state has moved heavily to the democratic party over the past decade or so. It would be shocking if Bush won. Also, Bush isn't targeting the state at all. One piece of evidence of this is that Glenn Cunnigham, the mayor of Jersey City, basically offered to endorse Bush in exchange for some federal money for the city. The republicans turned him down when certainly getting Cunnigham, a prominent black in the state and a very popular mayor, to endorse Bush would help if the race was close.

The problem is I haven't seen any other poll to say anything different. FDU Public Mind polls have seen okay in the past, but it is just one isolated poll and any isolated poll can be messed up. However, I don't think at all that it is biased in any way, intentionally.

It's probably a college poll.

and I have not seen any indication that we are looking at a GOP landslide in November.

Those polls are usually pretty accurate. FDU is fairly new in the polling game.

Sorry. There is no way in hell I buy this stupid poll.

Even with Toricelli's scandals, Lautenburg won by a decent margin. Gore carried the state by 15 points, a state with one of the highest margin of victory in favor of Gore.

New Jersey, like its sister state, NY, will be SOLIDLY blue this November.

The NJ Repubs are floundering!

I'm from jersey, the only position the dems have to worry about in our state is the governor...namely due to McGreevy being a scumbag

The republicans won't win jersey....

This poll showed strong support for Bush in January and September.

Bush's performance ratings took a nose dive in April, particularly among his core male support.

These voters have not yet moved to Kerry but they could be his to win.

I live in Monmouth County which was hit hard by 9-11. Alot of our local citizens died in the World Trade Center. I think that there may be people reluctant to abandon Bush, feeling that he was a good leader in that crisis. As more people learn about Bush's real performance, that should change.

McGreevy's lack of popularity may have some effect but I don't think it's the reason that Kerry's not leading here.

hard to believe.