Kerry's electoral college numbers are very similar to Gore's wins

If you look at state by state polls, it seems as though there really has been little movement from Gore states to Bush states, or vice versa.

At the moment, Bush has a lead in PA and WI by six points, two states Gore won. However, these are the only two states where Bush really has a lead.

Bush also leads in FL, and NM, by a single point, which really isn't significant. He also leads by two points in OR and OH. Kerry leads Bush by one point in IA and two points in NH (which Gore lost by less than two points).

Some other states have showed some interesting results. CO was won by eight points by Bush, but is giving him a five point lead. Arkansas is only showing a two point lead, but Bush won it by more than 6.

WV went by six points, and Bush is leading by six points now.

So it really looks like a majority of people haven't been swayed by EITHER Bush or Kerry. Most of those that voted for Gore, will vote for him again. Same goes with Bush.

Also, keep in mind that OR, NM, WI, and IA all went to Gore by LESS than ONE PERCENT. They were virtual ties.

These numbers shouldn't freak Kerry out, but it should give him some indication that progressives/liberals that voted for Nader shouldn't be brushed off, because any "moderating" of his solid liberal record will come off as a flip flop anyways, which actually end up alienating BOTH lefties and swing voting moderate independants.

Another interesting fact is that WI gave Dukakis a 3.61 victory margin over Bush. Nader recieved 3.62 percent in 2000. I was always curious if Dukakis' victory margins were greater than the Nader margin in IA, WI, and OR. They WEREN'T. It's pretty evident that Nader came EXTREMELY close to costing Gore those states.

Wisconsin are the "interesting states" this year.

While Colorado and North Carolina could be getting a bit more competitive for Dems, the GOP think New Jersey could become playable.

About the only thing folks agree on is that the states to watch are
Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin - and I'd add West Virgina and Oregon.

NJ state polls show Kerry between 8 and 11 points ahead. I doubt the GOPs confidence vis-a-vis New Jersey is really justified.

:-)

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

# of EVs in states. PA and NY lost EV, I believe FL and NH gained, as did NM, AZ....I can't remember the entire break down, but when I saw the report, it stated that if the 2000 election were tallied according to the new EV count, Bush would have won by more EV's.

So in short, 2000 blue states carry less EVs than 2000 red states as of today.

Any of the "swing states" beyond NH wins for John.