Fellow Clinton Supporters, With Florida Not Re-Voting...What's The Path To Victory?

We already know Florida will not have a re-vote.

This really bothers me. If they would have re-did the election, it's clear that Hillary Clinton would have been in a strong position to win Florida and pick up delegates and momentum. That notion is thrown out the window, and now it seems like Hillary won't get anything from Florida.

I was reading that to get the Michigan re-vote, that it would take a supermajority in the Republican-controlled State Senate.

So even if she can get Michigan to re-vote, she still won't get Florida. With Obama on the ballot, it's clear even if Hillary wins, she won't get the necessary delegates to pick back up.

She has a double digit lead in Pennsylvania. I imagine, like in other states, that she'll maintain the lead but it'll shrink a little bit.

Even if she wins big in PA and MI, how is she going to pull this off?

Superdelegates?

I'm not meaning to suggest she can't win. I haven't seen any evidence that says that. I'm just asking, because it seems like a lot of hurdles and lots of obstacles to get around.

What's the strategy team?

Prayer?!?

ON EDIT: I hope she can pull off some strong wins, because a lot of people will be pissed off if she wins because of the superdelegates. That may make for a party battle. I want her to win, but I also have issues with her winning solely based off what the superdelegates do. And secondly, I don't know if that's even an option...Obama is picking up all the superdelegates as of late.

And I don't want to make light of it - but it's likely MI isn't going to revote either. Apparently they too don't have the votes. I was actually looking forward to new contests in both states - particularly MI (I have friends there that didn't get to vote for their candidate). Anyway, just wanted to share what I read today.

Good strategy.

Surely won't help in the GE.

:(

You really think Fla?MI Dems will stay home in the GE over this?
Why do you give them so little credit?
I honestly think some here have lost all perspective of this primary race.

I called the FDP today to see what the plan was and they are going to the credentials committee I think next month to see what happens. They really don't have a clue. :(

They are going to disenfranchise millions of voters because of some stupid and outdated rules.
This election is almost lost for the Dems anyways.

That is her only hope of being the first Woman Elected President

It is as simple as that.

I do not even feel excited about voting in November. For the first time in years, I just may stay home. We are all frustrated in my circle of family and friends. Why bother? The DNC does not care about us. Why should we care about them?

I need to get out of this corrupt state. UGHHH ! ! ! ! ! :mad:

it's about the future of the country and the world. Can't figure that out? Too petty? How sad.

How we feel is the same as if I told you to go vote this November but it will not count. We voted for nothing. We got in our cars and drove to the polling station and stood in line....for nothing. We need to be included, not disenfranchised. They all need to figure out a way or they will not be able to count on Michigan and Florida in the General Election.

to revote...now they are not going to do it.

SO. by damn blame your state now.

so i hope those who have cheered this on are ready to take the damn blame!

I was a 2004 delegate here in Fla..and i have a huge Fla email list i send to..well i have gotten such angry emails..that all i can do anymore is delete..some are so nasty..as the people think i can do something about it..which i can't..

I have gotten so many emails from life long dems saying they 1.) won't vote..( common saying is..if they don't want my vote for the convention and nomination..then they won't get it in Nov) or 2.) will vote McCain to fuck the dems...people here are that mad!!..3.) from many vets this past week....they won't ever vote for Obama and his God damn america minister..

but one thing is for sure..the people here where i am.. are holding Dean and Brazile and Pelosi responsible!

fly

I don't think FL is ours to lose.

I don't know exactly how uncommitted delegates actually get chosen. Maybe let the state parties somehow choose them. Let them go to the Convention as uncommitted. Let them vote their conscience. Let both Clinton and Obama try to persuade them. In effect that would create 300 some additional "superdelegates."

This (a) re-enfranchises the people of Florida; (b) does not give either candidate an automatic leg up; (b) gives Florida and MI a great opportunity to actually influence who gets the nomination; (c) saves the expense of a primary; and (d) would make for a VERY dramatic convention, one that would not resolve into a bitter dispute, since it would probably be seen as fair to all sides.

The repugnants couldn't begin to compete.

Am I missing something? Is there any reason either FL, MI, the DNC or either campaigns would object?

The one kink I see is I don't know who would actually name the uncommitted delegates. I would think the state parties. But then the candidates might not like that. Maybe let Hillary name 1/3. Barack name 1/3 and the State party name the other 1/3. But they would al be uncommitted on the first ballot and could vote whichever way they chose - just like any other delegate.

I'm not a supporter but I suppose the strategy is to win big in PA which will give her Mo going in to other later primaries, which will hopefully reduce Obama's delegate lead and give her a lead in the popular vote. At this point, she hopes it goes to the convention and SDs give it to her.

It's gonna be tough either way, cause I think it would take a lot of things going right for her to get t hat to happen.


But I also wanna thank you, from one former Edwards supporter to another, for posting something other than shock value flamebait, like so many people of both camps do.

I can't say I'm terribly upset about this, although I do support a re-vote. If I were in Obama's shoes I'd be unwilling to let the elections in FL/MI count as they are, but I'd be open to a re-vote. At this point, short of a back-room deal for Hillary, I don't think she can win. I think she'll take PA by 10-12% and that Obama is very likely to sweep the remaining states. He'll go into convention with about the same or a slightly higher delegate lead than he has now and should be declared the nominee.

I don't have better news for ya. Do I think Florida and Michigan should get a chance to hold another primary? Yes. At the end of the day though, the Democratic voters in these two states put those who decided to move up the elections into office. Make them pay for disenfranchising you by voting them out again.

seem to indicate that Hillary can only win by taking at least 70% of the popular vote in every remaining primary election plus at least 55% of the remaining super-delegates or by trying some sort of coup re: the superdelegates.

she needs to close with all of the momentum breaking her way. That means winning all the contests that seem friendly to her, like PA, West Virginia and Puerto Rico, plus winning in a close state like Indiana, but also winning one or more States that looked good for Obama, such as Oregon and/or North Carolina. In short she has to finish in a very impressive way. She doesn't have to run the board, but she needs to start winning over some of the voters who she had previously been losing to Obama. On top of that she has to open up some daylight between her and Obama in the national polls, with her lead continually growing over him. The story has to be that Clinton is surging and Obama is fading.

There are enough variables out there, such as the unresolved status of Florida and Michigan, the fact that Clinton outperforms Obama with registered Democrats, and the fact that Obama's temporary huge money advantage throughout January let him build ground operations to get out the vote of his core supporters in February's caucus states, that Super Delegates can take into account, but ONLY IF Clinton is dominating the final months of this race. If she does dominate the race from PA on our it will change the national media story and raise new doubts about Obama. However is she and he tie in the remainder of the races, or if Hillary just does a little better than Obama from here on out there is no path to victory for Clinton. She has to finish very strong.

Both of the states legislatures where controlled by Republicans, Florida fully controlled by the Republic Party and the Michigan Senate basically moved it on it's own while the Democrats in the house were squabbling over whether to have a Primary or a Caucus.

So here's what should happen, count both elections. Hillary gets 55% of the Michigan delegates and then all the 40% "Uncommitted" delegates and the delegates of the other candidates that have already dropped out (the other 5%) can decide who to support at the convention. It's just that simple.

As we all know, a difference of 5 to 10% isn't that big of a deal as far as the count goes, so what if Hillary picks up a net of 25 votes, Obama is still ahead, so what's the big deal Obama Fans?

Here's why: The purpose of DNC's order NOT to campaign in those states was what? It was to PUNISH the STATE, NOT the PEOPLE!

What does that mean, punish the State, not the people? It means NO Millions of Dollars in T.V. and Newspaper Ads, No Millions in Hotel revenues, etc. MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!

Now let's NOT punish the average person of Michigan and Florida who had NOTHING to do with and NO say in the breaking of the DNC rules!

Get it?

Hillary Wins Florida and Michigan, but is that a really big deal? NO.

Maybe a net gain of 25 to 40 delegates, RIGHT? So what's the big DEAL!:shrug: :rant: