New Michigan Poll

Kerry 47
Bush 43

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Kerry/Edwards '04. And Beyond...

So much good news today!

no way no how.

Thanks!

We must hold Michigan & Pennsylvania.

but still good news, Kerry took the Bush ad blitz, sort of kept a low profile and STILL is ahead.

Detroit votes over 90% Democratic (no exaggeration). It's the most Democratic major city in America. In order to cancel that out, Republicans need to win massive margins in the suburbs, and in the past they were able to get over 60% in Oakland and Macomb counties. It's not like that anymore. Gore narrowly won both of those, and Kerry will probably do better as the suburbs shift to the left. The state has also suffered massive job losses.

The fact is that Michigan was a toss-up state throughout the 2000 campaign, and there is no reason to believe things will be any different this year. Yes, Gore did surprisingly well in the Michigan suburbs. But just because Gore did well is no reason to assume that Kerry will do as well, much less better, as you assume.

Besides, the statement that Bush can't win Michigan is belied by the fact that BOTH campaigns will be pouring millions of dollars into the state.

Perhaps you meant to say that Bush can't win Michigan IF Kerry devotes considerable resources AND does as well as Gore did among suburbanites AND the Michigan economy doesn't recover between now and election day. Perhaps that what you meant to say, but if so, something got lost in translation.

In the future, please limit your "Bush can't win ___" posts to real Democratic strongholds like Rhode Island, New York, Massachusetts and Washington, DC. About the closest thing to a Democratic lock in the industrial midwest is Illinois, but even that isn't in the same league as the states I just mentioned.

since *'s far right social agenda is now more out in the open. Michigan suburbanites won't vote for a right wing extremist.

He did as expected. Michigan went for Clinton in '92 and '96, and the voting trends from those elections continued through 2000, and by all indications are still continuing now.

Gore ran very strong in the Northern suburbs. That and strong turnout among African Americans is how he won the industrial states.

Now DU'ers who don't know anybody suddenly take Gore's results and treat them as a floor. The surest way to get into trouble is to assume that the Democratic nominee will do at least as well as the nominee four years ago. According to that logic, Humphrey should have won by a landslide in 1968.

Could Kerry do better that Gore? Sure, it's possible. But it's also possible that Kerry could do worse. Nobody around here seems to even acknowledge that as a possibility. DU'ers appear to be physically incapable of making any connection between the centrist/DLC approach of the Clinton/Gore administration and Gore's success among Northern suburban voters. DU'ers are also blind to the fact that Kerry's voting record in Congress is demonstrably more liberal than Gore's voting record.

Because he is bus touring Michigan right now, and so the local new coverage has a boosting effect in his favor, for the time being, but as soon as he leave the state, you will likely see the scales tipping back towards Kerry, who has held double digit leads in that state for the last few months. This is the kind of anomaly that occurs when a candidate is spending time in a state.,as you saw happening in the primaries when Edwards spent a weeks in Wisconsin. It boosted him big time, but not enough to win.

your use of "In the future, please limit." You might be a school teacher, but DUers are not your students. I, personally, thought your tone was wrong.

See for yourself. Rethug strongholds are realizing explosive growth in the Dem party. The state party is actually looking past it's own nose to the north and realizing this.

As a foot-soldier in the trenches in Rethug held region I will make the claim that Bush will not win Michigan. I see no excitiment about Kerry at all but I see more hatred for Bush by the day.

I'm in the thick of it, I know, I'm here and I see. Bush can't do it. There just aren't enough super-rich or fundamentalist minded here anymore. Check out our unemployment rate and then take a look at Granhom's approval numbers.

I hope Jr. pours cash into MI. It would be like pouring it into a cash incinerator. That dumb-ass.

Julie

...that we have some of the largest populations of people of middle-eastern descent in the country. In Hamtramk (Detroit metro area), there's even going to be a 'call to prayer' broadcast over loudspeakers 5 times per day pretty soon.

Maybe it's just me, but I don't think Bush is going to be getting a whole lotta muslim votes (not that all people from the middle east are muslims, yea yea, but a lot are).

I don't think Bush should harbor any illusions about winning Michigan.

Gov Granholm doing photo ops. She is very likeable,
very capable, and damn gorgeous. I have never heard a
bad thing about her and I live in rural "Michigan Militia"
territory.

but don't remember what she looks like. Don't suppose you have a link to a picture or two, do you? Very glad she is such a successful Governor. Maybe she'll be the first female President of the United States. We could use some feminine judgement in Washington, D. C.

If the Hatch amendment succeeds, as she was born in Canada.

She does have very striking looks, though. I think she'll age quite well. And, oh yeah, she's brilliant and speaks very well.

But here's an Ohio State grad rooting for Michigan!!

(but only to vote Kerry)

We really, really need Michigan. I don't see us winning without it, and it's still a battleground state. I hope this keeps up.

I just don't trust the bush* people....there's no telling the lies they're sure to spread and who knows whatever else when they see they're down in the polls.

They targetted Kerry with Bush a couple of points ahead in many polls.

They attacked Kerry in April before the convention and before many voters had decided how they felt about him.

They have the media in their pocket doing as Kerry himself put it, "the work of the Republican National Committee."

It failed.

All it did was highlight the fact that Kerry was a war hero that fought against the war.

All it was define him as a veteran who fought the hard fight against the war when he got home.

It backfired.

+

eom.