Question: If these job numbers continue up to November....

what are our chances of winning???

AND Iraq improves we are in trouble. I don't think that will happen though.

as will the nation's debt load.

Right now, I think Iraq is a much larger vulnerability for Bush and could cost him the election. Even a good economy may not change the right track-wrong track numbers, which have been heading south.

That the quality of jobs being created now may be lower than the ones we lost.
However it'll be a lot harder to attack Shrub for creating lower quality jobs, than for just losing them.

last night that the type of majority of the jobs created are low wage,, with few or no benefits, and loist of people are now underemplyed because after waiting for two years to try to get jobs with somnething near their old salaries, a lot of white collar and skilled blue collar workers are taking jobs offering as much as 75 percent lower salaries in order to get back to work.

The Bush admistration can spin the unemployment figures as much as they want, those people getting jobs KNOW the kind of jobs they are getting, and know exactly what they have lost as a result of this administrations improving economy. Anecdotal tales are usually no indication but I have a few friends who have had to take 25 percent cuts in salaries, and their employers have taken advantage the past two years of joblessness in order to cut the starting salaries of people at that workplace by one third, dropping the starting salaries for her profesional workers in their field from 33,000, to 20,000 a year. I know these people are not happy with the method used to reduce unemployment.

Your theory contradicts against all past pre-election
state of the economy scenario (mainly jobs) but why
worry about details! Let me go find my beer keg and let
the party begin. Kerry is in like flynn.

A lot of people living on 100,000 four years ago taking 30,000 a year jobs who are obviosly not happy about the change in income

BUT people KNOW if they have a job that pays their bills. This would not be as bad (for Bushit) if it wasn't happening when boomers are now middle age. How the hell is someone 55 suppose to return to school to get re-trained?

-----------update
Just as I was posting Gallop poll came thru email

------quote
Why Is Consumer Confidence Falling? - http://www.gallup.com/nl/?11611,AlertBE,5/10/2004,
Even as the U.S. economic expansion begins to provide real job growth, Gallup Poll economic data for early May show more consumers rating the economy as "poor" than at any time this year. Half the public also says the economy is getting worse, not better. Is consumer confidence falling simply because consumer fears of inflation and higher interest rates are growing, or are other factors involved? A look at consumer confidence by income provides some interesting insights.

------end quote
Look at the poll....Fear of inflation, interest rates and income scale. The top of the income scale (no surprise) think things are good......and then there is everyone else.

The combination of the weak dollar, high energy prices, rising commodity prices and possible increase in interest rates will keep the number of jobs created down. Greenspan is also making noises like he has come to his senses and is beginning to be concerned about the deficit.

there will be an Autocratic State in the same place that the United States of America used to be.

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I'm just a bit occupied with these images of our soldiers TORTURING PRISONERS and our Secretary of Defense COVERING HIS ASS in front of Congress.

That, plus the fact that Bush was playing full-time defense on the Iraqi torture story on the campaign trail, practically guarantees that Bushco will not reap any benefits from the employment news.

I think this good job report is going straight down the memory hole, at least for this month.

-MR

Sad but true. People simply don't care because it's not happening to them.

Look at the right track/ wrong track sections of the polls and that is what is telling the tale about Bush and the pirates. That is the number that will pretty much determine how this shakes out.

Right now, the wrong track curve is going up at a 45 degree angle while the right track is going down at a similar clip.

It is very possible if this level of job creation maintained through November, *'s losses could be recovered.

And it would just sound petty of Kerry to compain over "50,000 jobs lost in this administration" when we may be in the black over 2.5 million at that time.

Kerry needs to talk about healthcare, and how his administration will create better quality jobs,

seriously..I thought it was laughable when Bush predicted 2 million jobs created this year...then to top it off, the UPPED the number to 2.5 million. Even if the pace of Jan-April is cut in half, they may well exceed 3 million new jobs. This is bad because Americans will become complacent...They will be happy, and will vote for Bush cuz they trust him on the "war on terra". If the economy is a nonissue, democrats are going to need some big shovels.

Why would * deserve credit for nearly destroying the country and then putting a little bit of it back together? Oh gee thanks for my low paying job. I don't think so.

to pay for gas, things will look pretty bleak.

And I have a feeling that will still be the case in November.

She's fifteen, makes good grades, and has expensive taste. She was counted in last month's numbers. She only works fifteen hours a week.

Summer is upon us and students are getting summer jobs - lifeguards, summer camps, fast food, etc. They will all count. When summer goes, they won't be on unemployment. So - they go on the rolls, but never off. How does that work?

I hate the numbers game. They are very skewed and even the most intelligent can't figure out the game. Have the fast food service workers' jobs into the manufacturing job count yet?

Over 1 million jobs were actually created in April, but only 288,000 of them are actually expected to remain for 12 months or more.

Ronald Reagan was reelected by an overwhelming marging despite the fact that the economy was in recession for much of his first term (a recession that was far deeper than the one at the start of Bush's term) and despite foreign policy failures in Beirut and Lebanon. Regan was trailing in polls in early 1984 but the economy was strong by election day. Let's hope that voters have longer memories this time around (and lets hope that Kerry runs a better campaign than Mondale).

and people will perceive them as a failure, Kerry will very easily be able to explain how miserably short Bush's jobs record is, compared to the promises he made about the tax cuts.

Plus, I think these numbers will not continue until November, not even close.

I think it bears bad for us.

We know they aren't good jobs, we know that *'s economic record is horrible, but the corporate media isn't going to get this message out, and will make it look like Kerry is just sour grapes, and talking down Bush's glorious recovery. I saw the same thing happen in 1984.

Kerry can pull his head out of his ass. Kucinich was right about what the best Democratic arguments will be in this election. Kerry needs to have a plan to get out of Iraq and start admitting that the WTO and NAFTA are responsible for job losses. If Kerry uses those issues he'll be fine. If he tries to have it both ways and continues to support the occupation and the WTO style trade system, then he'll have a hard time giving people a good reason to vote for him.

I don't think Kerry is in a position to go violently against WTO or NAFTA, because he has long been a supporter of these institution and the * people will eat him alive.

Kerry proposed a change in the tax code to punish companies that move jobs overseas. It's kind of a half-hearted attempt at adressing the issue without really doing much.

The WTO represents the opposite of everything the Democratic Party stands for. If Kerry believes in the right to organize, the environment, and worker safety in America then he shouldn't support trade agreements that undermind all of those things around the world. I don't really understand how anyone who supports the WTO without changes is considered to be a Democrat at all.

but Kerry is going to have take a firm stance on the issue one way or the other, and soon.

BTW, welcome to DU.

I think all things point to an improving economy.....Almost 1 million jobs created in 04.
Iraq will be the win or loose for Bush in 2004.

Just remember how wrong the moderates and media pundits were a year ago when they all said that we needed to nominate someone who supporterd the Iraq war and that the economy would be the #1 big issue. The Democratic Party needs to have more confidence in the electability progressive values.